A two party state in 10 years?

[Rightrules]

FG no longer needs the hags in the Labour Party. They have the ability and talent to go alone.

[ivnryn]

FG no longer needs the hags in the Labour Party. They have the ability and talent to go alone.

That is always going to be their main issue, due to the way the numbers work out, a vote for FG is a vote for Lab. Ironically, FF and Lab are closer in some aspects FG/Lab.

So, are we going to see a Mullingar Pact II ?

[drbob1972]

So, are we going to see a Mullingar Pact II ?

i'd be interested to know the opinion of Lab supporters on that one, 07 with a pact and 02 with no pact seem to have both been less than ideal for Lab, where as FG do seem to have benefited from same

[drbob1972]

delete

[crunchtime]

[quote="wexfordman"]

The PD's were hated by FF, because they were seen as deserters, hated by FG because they helped keep FG out of power, and hated by Labour because they were where labour should have been (in government with FF or FG).

To hear talk by FF and others about "Gene Pool" independents etc, pretty much shows the state of irish politics, in that it is seen more of a clan that should not be betrayed. Principles and independent thought go out the window, if you betray your "clan" by deciding that you are not like your father/grandfather, then you are scum of the earth.

I know people who during the last campaign went out postering at 3am in the morning for a candidate because as much as they supported him, they could not be seen to be helping the opposition.

Pretty dim picture for the future, however, an optimistic view would be that the sustained economic boom that could last two decades will bring about realignments in politics, simply because the old dependencies are weakened and new demographics start influencing political behaviour (weakening the clan effect).

Question is will opposition parties, especially the smaller parties recognize new segmentations in the electorate, eg. the "Decklanders" in the Dublin commuter belt or the emerging cafe society in high density areas and assimilate them into their party structures and policymaking?

[oreiley1]

I voted Green. I was initially disappointed the numbers were not there for the Rainbow. In power I shall see how they do. To say they will lose seats five years before an election is hog wash.

[ivnryn]

So, are we going to see a Mullingar Pact II ?

i'd be interested to know the opinion of Lab supporters on that one, 07 with a pact and 02 with no pact seem to have both been less than ideal for Lab, where as FG do seem to have benefited from same

I think an aspect of that question is the strength of the PDs and the Greens in the next election. A Lab/FF coalition is only on the cards if FF+the smaller parties cannot form a government.

Lab gave up a chance of coalition with FF as part of the pact. However, the problem for Labour is that the optimal size of a party in a FF government is around 85-(the number of seats FF gets). In this election this worked out at around 7. The PDs + Greens obtained that level of support combined.

It was unlikely that Lab would have been FF's only choice after this election and if they aren't then FF will naturally go into coalition with the smaller party/parties. This means the pact was worth it, even if it only boosted FG.

FF has to lose alot of support for 2012 so FF+PD+GR+Ind hasn't the majority and thus a FF/Lab coalition becomes on the cards. Otherwise, any seat gains for FG are effectively seat gains for the FG/Lab coalition. If FF's support is likely to hold steady, then a Mullingar Pact II is perhaps a good idea. (Unless a small party wipeout is expected).

FF have lost support since 1989, but are holding moderately steady/rising in recent elections.

1989: 44.1
1992: 39.1
1997: 39.3
2002: 41.5
2007: 41.6

The only change in that situation is if FG gains enough seats so that the optimal becomes (85-FG's seats). Assuming Lab hold around 20, this means that FG would have to increase in power to 65 seats. This reduces to 60 if the Greens are assumed part of the coalition again.

[Odyessus]

The way I see it, the main problem with any small party, is that they will always be a minority, and any small party that helps one of the big two get or stay into party is going to suffer the wrath of the opposition, irrespective of whether they are actualy making a differencce or not.
The demise of the PD's is a loss for Ireland, the demise of any small party, and any alternative to the big 2 is a loss to the voter.

The PD's were hated by FF, because they were seen as deserters, hated by FG because they helped keep FG out of power, and hated by Labour because they were where labour should have been (in government with FF or FG).

To hear talk by FF and others about "Gene Pool" independents etc, pretty much shows the state of irish politics, in that it is seen more of a clan that should not be betrayed. Principles and independent thought go out the window, if you betray your "clan" by deciding that you are not like your father/grandfather, then you are scum of the earth.

I know people who during the last campaign went out postering at 3am in the morning for a candidate because as much as they supported him, they could not be seen to be helping the opposition.

With regards FG, I think the same mentality applies, although to a lesser extent than FG. A note for FG however, as much as you can feel you can celebrate your recent success by virtue of the gains you ahve made, in effect, every time you deride the opposition and FF for being corrupt, wastefull, incompetent and self serving, you should bear in mind that in spite of all of this, you have failed to get into government yourselves. By the way many FG supporters talk on this site, getting into government should have been a walkover if FF were this bad. It should have been easy!!!

If this is the case, then it is time for FG to try and see why they have failed to do so, and perhaps identify why you have failed. There are two reasons to my mind. Firstly there is the "clan" issue which infects politics and stops people from making the switch to another party. Second is that FG just hav'nt cut it in opposition, and are just unable to offer a decent alternative. FG have failed the country just as much as FF have if you like.

Unless things change dramatically over the next 5 years, then we are truly going to be in a sorry state. The PD's gone, Greens potentially sufferring the same fate and in decline, and FG a weak and innefectual opposition again.

Wexfordman

[/quote]
"The demise of the PD's is a loss for Ireland, the demise of any small party, and any alternative to the big 2 is a loss to the voter."


If small parties are demised, it is because the voters have killed them. It would be rather ironic therefore if they complained of their bereavement.


It reminds me of the story of the young man convicted of killing his parents, who pleaded for leniency on the grounds that he was an orphan.

[PatMcL]

With the imminent demise of the Progressive Democrats, the Greens and the Stalingrad like blow inflicted on Sinn Fein that leaves Ireland with a 2 1/2 party system. But given the age profile of the Labour party and their stale policies It is difficult to see a long term future for them.
In contrast both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are better funded than ever before, have decent age profiles and slick organisational structures. With this in mind could we be facing into a two party state in the near future?

Stalingrad blow for SF? Nothing like hyperbole to expose a weak and vacuous line.
SF are embedded in the Northern part of this country (unaffected by the self proclaimed republican party) and seem likely to be so for quite a long time.
One thing they have shown is durability and I do remember other siren voices predicting their demise not long after the Anglo Irish Agreement, all of 20 odd years ago.

[newbie12]

With the imminent demise of the Progressive Democrats, the Greens and the Stalingrad like blow inflicted on Sinn Fein that leaves Ireland with a 2 1/2 party system. But given the age profile of the Labour party and their stale policies It is difficult to see a long term future for them.
In contrast both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are better funded than ever before, have decent age profiles and slick organisational structures. With this in mind could we be facing into a two party state in the near future?

Stalingrad blow for SF? Nothing like hyperbole to expose a weak and vacuous line.
SF are embedded in the Northern part of this country (unaffected by the self proclaimed republican party) and seem likely to be so for quite a long time.
One thing they have shown is durability and I do remember other siren voices predicting their demise not long after the Anglo Irish Agreement, all of 20 odd years ago.

Given that your only opposition in the 6 counties is the pathetic SDLP that's not too difficult now is it? Voters in the 26 counties didn't take too long to see through your vacuous and nonsensical economic policies.

If FF stood in the 6 counties (and they should) SF would soon find themselves in serious bother. Many FF leaning people would sooner vote SF than SDLP and would be delighted to get a real option. FF have not done enough to advance the cause of Irish unity but SF have set it back many many years. Pissing off the Unionists for 30 years and then accepting a unionist veto on a United Ireland ain't the smartest tactics in the world.