constituency changes 2012

[dunlaoighaire]

I'm lost . Tell me what consituencies are losing/gaining seats and which ones are going together/splitting up.

[FutureTaoiseach]

It hasn't been decided but my calculations are that DL should definitely lose a seat and it's not in the interest of my party for that to be the case of course. Dublin West will have to get a 4th seat. Media speculation indicates Kerry will become a single 5-seater. Beyond that, I don't see much justification for further changes.

[dunlaoighaire]

louth will get 5 seats and fg will keep it's vote in dl and kerry at the expense of gp,ind and sf. Mcguinness will get in in louth and joe higgins will get in in dublin-west. Your predictions please.

[FutureTaoiseach]

The 2006 Census returns in Louth don't seem to me to justify a 5th seat. Higgins probably will get back in and wit will return to the Dail.

[dunlaoighaire]

The 2006 Census returns in Louth don't seem to me to justify a 5th seat. Higgins probably will get back in and wit will return to the Dail.

I heard rumours saying that louth will become a 5 seater and it woul take care of kerrys loss.

[locke]

Overall, Dublin and Munster should lose a seat each, while Leinster outside Dublin should gain two.

In Munster, Cork, Clare and Waterford are fine and Tipperary is within tolerability. So, Limerick or Kerry will lose it. Either some of Limerick West will have to be transferred into Kerry North or vice versa to balance the numbers.

In Dublin there's likely to be an internal reorganisation as well as the transfer of a seat out of the county, the combination of Dun Laoighaire, Dublin SE and Dublin South will be down one. North of the river, Dublin Central, North East and North West will be down one. Dublin West definitely needs an extra TD. Dublin North could also do with one, but this could be dealt with by moving the boundary.

In Leinster, either Meath East could get one or some of Meath East could be moved to Louth and a seat added there.

The combination of Carlow-Kilkenny and Laois-Offaly need another seat, but it would mean breaking up one or both of the constituencies

If you follow the link to table 8 here, it will tell more about the constituency populations

http://www.cso.ie/census/census2006_volume_1.htm

There could also be some general redrawing. There's a great deal of unhappiness about the splitting of Leitrim and a number of the Cork posters (including me) find the current seats a little unnatural, with the Northern and Southen parts of Cork East and Cork North-West, being little more than marriages of convenience.

[dunlaoighaire]

By your calculations it's the same except FF or labour will lose one and fg will gain one in Carlow-Kilkenny/Laois-Offaly.Fg will be seatless in at least 3 constituencies again.

[locke]

It's hard to know what the actual results will be.

For example, using the Limerick-Kerry situation and the votes received in this election

You could organise in three ways

Limerick East 4, Limerick West 3, Kerry South 3, Kerry North 3
Limerick City 3, Limerick County 4, Kerry South 3, Kerry North 3
Limerick East 5, Limerick West 3, Kerry 5

The first would give you FF 6 FG 4 Lab 1 SF 1 Ind 1
The second would likely mean FF 5 FG 5 Lab 1 SF 1 Ind 1
And the last FF 6 FG 5 Lab 1 or 2 SF 0 or 1 (the last seat in Kerry would be too close to call)

Similarly, in Cork there is a case for moving some population and a seat from Cork North Central into Cork East. That would effectively transfer a FF seat to FG.

I'd like to think the boundary commission is independent of where the seats go, but I would imagine that they are in some way sensitive.

[dunlaoighaire]

In cork lab could lose one instead of ff.

[locke]

It's possible, but I'd consider it unlikely. Kathleen Lynch finished 1,400 votes above Noel O'Flynn, with just under 6,000 FG votes untransferred. Noel O'Flynn is possibly the most transfer unfriendly politician in Ireland.