Socio-economic analysis of GE11 Dublin tallies....

[Casualbets]

I've done a Socio-economic analysis of tallies in seven of the Dublin constituencies and the results are quite interesting.

I'm basing the results on the proportion of "middle-class" households in a given Electoral Division (from the 2006 census). I'm defining "middle-class" as households headed by a Manager, Employer or Professional worker.

In areas with less than 30% of the households middle-class, the results were as follows : Labour 37% Fine Gael 18% Sinn Fein 17% ULA 12% FF 10% GP 2% Others 4% (c.30% of total votes)

In areas with between 30% and 50% of the households middle-class, the results were as follows : Fine Gael 31% Labour 30% FF 13% ULA 10% SF 5% GP 4% Others 7% (c.40% of total votes)

In areas with more than 50% of the households middle-class, the results were as follows : Fine Gael 41% Labour 18% FF 13% GP 6% ULA 3% SF 2% Others 17% (c.30% of total votes)

The voting trends seem to be very class-based - or is that too simple an explanation?

Throwing it open to the floor

[hammer]

FF 10% 13% 13%

Seems accurate enough.

What constitutes middle class income scale ?

[Cormocodran]

As always thanks for the work CB, very interesting. In Dublin it makes sense - I was canvassing, what was fascinating was the class split that has emerged, certainly seemed working-class areas swung behind Labour and Upper-class ones behind FG, with a split in the middle.

Also interesting was the fact that Dublin swung strongly to the left and gave a majority of it's votes to left-wing parties (under 40% to the two Civil War ones), which must be a first.

[Panopticon]

Loving the Shane Ross effect in the >50% middle-class "others" figure!

[Casualbets]

Loving the Shane Ross effect in the >50% middle-class "others" figure!

The interesting thing about Shane Ross' vote was that he did just as well in the few working-class areas in Dublin South. He in fact did worst in what is arguably the wealthiest part of the constituency along its eastern border (Foxrock/Stillorgan area) - that was probably more to do with Peter Mathew's taking a big slice of the vote there tho...

To check his comparable figures : <30% MC (2% of voters) 24%..... 30-50% MC 25% (20% of voters)..... >50% MC 23% (78% of voters)

[Panopticon]

The interesting thing about Shane Ross' vote was that he did just as well in the few working-class areas in Dublin South. He in fact did worst in what is arguably the wealthiest part of the constituency along its eastern border (Foxrock/Stillorgan area) - that was probably more to do with Peter Mathew's taking a big slice of the vote there tho...

To check his comparable figures : <30% MC (2% of voters) 24%..... 30-50% MC 25% (20% of voters)..... >50% MC 23% (78% of voters)

That's interesting alright - love to see some of those maps some time. Small sample size, sure, but nice result.

If you strip out Shane Ross, do Others still get their highest support among the most middle-class EDs?

[EUrJokingMeRight]

This just proves my theory that middle class voters are the reason that nothing changes in Irish politics. Replace FG and LAB, with FF and FG and you have their previous voting patterns.

By extension can we unfortunately surmise the following.....that middle class voters are mostly sheep, are mostly gullible, are mostly in menial jobs, are terrified of real change, are risk averse so will never be really wealthy and are generally well educated but probably still dim nonetheless.

An inconvenient truth perhaps?!

Edit: just to clear things up I am by definition middle class. Though I am not as risk averse as most so will probably end my life either stinking rich or a pauper!

[Blissett]

Interesting to see ULA much stronger than SF in middle and lower middle class areas. Something we need to work at.

[ticketyboo]

I've done a Socio-economic analysis of tallies in seven of the Dublin constituencies and the results are quite interesting.

I'm basing the results on the proportion of "middle-class" households in a given Electoral Division (from the 2006 census). I'm defining "middle-class" as households headed by a Manager, Employer or Professional worker.

In areas with less than 30% of the households middle-class, the results were as follows : Labour 37% Fine Gael 18% Sinn Fein 17% ULA 12% FF 10% GP 2% Others 4% (c.30% of total votes)

In areas with between 30% and 50% of the households middle-class, the results were as follows : Fine Gael 31% Labour 30% FF 13% ULA 10% SF 5% GP 4% Others 7% (c.40% of total votes)

In areas with more than 50% of the households middle-class, the results were as follows : Fine Gael 41% Labour 18% FF 13% GP 6% ULA 3% SF 2% Others 17% (c.30% of total votes)

The voting trends seem to be very class-based - or is that too simple an explanation?

Throwing it open to the floor

Interesting. As A SF voter I'm looking at the left parties. SF seem to be at their strongest with the very poorest sections of Dublin voters, whereas as you move into the middle and upper classes not only Labour but also ULA have greater strength. here's an analogy. Some years ago a commentator on I think a BBC documentary was examining the parallels between the PLO and the Republican movement in Ireland. He said that the PLO ran Universities, schools, hospitals and had Doctors, lawyers and University lecturers in its ranks, whereas the Rep movement in Ireland didn't have that calibre of person in its ranks, so there's a degree of similarity there. Labour, while strong in the lower income strata were also well represented among the Upper echelons, so makes me think they're no Labour in the tradition of Connolly. FF were at the same level amongst all classes in Dublin. Stand for everything and stand for nothing? Sums them up really.

[ticketyboo]

Interesting to see ULA much stronger than SF in middle and lower middle class areas. Something we need to work at.

Champagne Socialists? Wealthy people with a conscience? The Boyd Barrett effect?