Election 2016 and the "on loan" FG vote

[FloatingVoterTralee]

Immediately after the General Election, much political commentary was of the opinion that much of FG's rise since 2007 was due to soft "on loan" movement from FF, and that the actions of the Coalition would determine whether this became a permanent shift by the electorate. Opinion polls showed little change in the intervening period, but both the Gallagher phemonenon and FF's surprising strength in Dublin West suggest that the FG vote is indeed vulnerable to sudden change. Will the 13% ultimately return to FF after five further years of austerity, or will a new centre-right party focused on entrepreneurship and economic stimuli emerge to entice defectors?

[uriah]

The votes belong to the voters.
FF, FG or any other party has no claim on them. They have no 'right' to them and, thankfully, can no longer count on them.

[wombat]

Will the 13% ultimately return to FF after five further years of austerity, or will a new centre-right party focused on entrepreneurship and economic stimuli emerge to entice defectors?

Interesting that FF seem to be making the same mistake that FG in the past. There is no divine right to people's support. Its not enough to wait for the other crowd to screw up, you need to gain the trust of people over time.

[Warrior of Destiny]

No party should live safe in the knowledge that it's a two man town.

The time of FF to FG in one election and vice versa is hopefully gone, and good riddance.

[Tuogid]

The next general election will be in less than 2 years.

[smitchy2]

Hopefully a new party will form but there is not much space for them.

It looks like FG will be the dominant party with Labour, FF and SF fighting it out for second.
Until FG start polling below 30% I don't think they have to worry too much.

FF and SF are fairly transfer toxic.

[BlackLion]

the on Loan vote for FG? on the on loan vote is for Lab and SF as well. these parties didn't grow because they had great leadership and policies but because they lied and were a protest vote.

[Analyzer]

At this stage FG will be rushing to get Mitchel over the Brussels as fast as possible. And making sure he does not get in front of a microphone for at least six months.

[culmore]

The day of voting the same way as your parents did is gone, each election will be voted on on the merits of the policies of the parties. so anything could happen, if Sinn Fein come up with good policies they may even be the biggest party next time around

[commonman]

Does it matter to any of us who is in power FG\LAB have just carried on the same policies as FF, and it gos like this, let the people pay for the mess that was made by the banks, builders, and developers,and FF. then tell us ever so often we are getting it right but it wil be another 3 or 4 years and we have to take more pay cuts and welfare cut for the good of the country , but i think the may push the people to far , history tells us when trouble starts in Ireland down through the centuries its stopping it becomes the problem .