Election 2016 and the "on loan" FG vote

[hairylemon]

A friend of mine, a FF councillor called me a good for nothing political flip flopper because I did not vote for SG in the presidential election or FF in the last election and that people like me were no good for the stability of any political party.....

I took it as a compliment. He's actually a nice guy but really thinks that political parties are being held to randsom by independent political persons. Long may this continue IMO.

You need new friends

[Maction]

You need new friends

Ha ha.... I think I do. Would you think the same if he was a FG councillor???

[wombat]

Ha ha.... I think I do. Would you think the same if he was a FG councillor???

We have our loons too

[Tea Party Patriot]

you afraid you might have to sell the big car and move to a smaller house to live with the working class??

No fear of that I have my house paid for years ago

[BlackLion]

With good reason, the people who bank roll FF do so because they expect that legendary pull to be used to benefit them. If FF are out of power for a prolonged period then they could be abandoned by their sugar daddies.

The "sugar daddies" will always be around the powerful. they might know FF guys more due to the fact that FF were in power for along time. The parties will attract the suger daddies that can help them and the suger daddies will attract the parties that can help them. In politics in ireland money is a very important factor. The more money you have, the more likely you are to be elected into power.

Edit: TBF Politics in the west, it is important to have money, not just in Ireland.

[FloatingVoterTralee]

To address the floating Labour vote: What the Dublin constituencies seem to suggest is that the alternative left challenge in an area comes from either Sinn Féin or United Left, and that once a grouping becomes established, the other finds it difficult to take root in a community. Furthermore, the evidence from Kerry North and other electoral areas where the challenge occurred in the last decade, is of a sudden, spiked rise followed by a plateauing and consolidation of the acquired vote, and eventually a fightback by the established parties. I'd still expect slippage by Labour at the next vote, but the meltdown predicted doesn't appear likely.

[fanorefan]

Your points are valid but I think that by the date of the next election both Joan Burton and Joe Higgins will be nearer 70 than 60 years of age and may not be candidates.

[jem]

A few points.
I think there is probably an opening for a new centre party with FF so low at present and FG heading back to where its natural home is - to the right with leo and co. However it would be extremly difficult to do so as the PD's found it is hard to get the grass roots set up sucessfully and not have a top down approach as the PD's had.
I would worry that with the "rise (mainly in profile)" of ULA/SF etc and the financial difficulties not just in Ireland but all over Europe that there will be a rise in extrem far Right parties all over Europe to balance the extreme left. With The business class genuinly worried about the extreme left. If this happens FG will actually get squeesed or move more right than they are at present.Thus leaving room in the centre

To address the DWest IF FF get even close to the by-election vote they will easly get a seat in DW.

To address the FF nationwide. IMHO of the 28.5% the SG got roughly 25% were "traditional" FF voters.
This would tie in with the DW result in what has always been a difficult area for FF.
In the last election a lot of FF voters felt that they needed a term in opposition and needed to get hurt in the ballot box for the state of the countries finance. Will that vote stay with FG/Lab/Ind a certian % will stay where it went and never vote FF again, likewise I would sugest that a strong % will actually return. This was what I got on the doors canvessing. What will be interesting is the next local elections. A lot will depend on MM and the re orginisation of the party that he talks about. a lot will depend on the ncanidates obviously and a lot will depend on local issues. I personally will be going to the bookies to bet on FF geting approx 25%+.
Ignoring my polictical alligiances I hope that FF move very much to the centre and that my worst fears in the first part of this post with a rise in the two extrems left and right doesnt come to pass, but I have a skeeky feeling it will.