Why are the media writing off the Alternative Coalition?

[Phaedrus]

It now seems to be accepted by most of the media that Enda Kenny cannot become Taoiseach. Fintan O'Toole, John Waters, Tom McGurk, Kevin Myers and many others accept now that Bertie Ahern will rightly continue as Taoiseach. Many reporters are utterly dismissive of the tribunals as an unwanted and expensive intrusion into the affairs of Bertie Ahern.

But why can't Kenny form a government? Is it as unbelievable as everyone thinks?

The PD's are the key to the unfolding drama. It is believed Harney was deeply disturbed by revelations concerning Ahern's finances before the election. The opening statement by the tribunal throws further confusion regarding Ahern's statement which pacified the PD's and allowed them to continue with their support. Does Harney want to go back into government with Ahern when she has deep concerns about his truthfulness. She must also understand that the collapse of the PD's in the election is attributable to their connection with FF and Ahern's finances.

This means she is obliged to support the alternative. If this happens then the Greens are obliged to exhaust all efforts to form an alternative coalition before they can contemplate doing a deal with FF. To do otherwise would be a betrayal of the electorate. Remember that many people voted 1, 2, 3 for a FG, Labour and Green alliance.

So if all this comes to pass how do the numbers stack up?
FG + Lab. + Greens + PD = 79
Independents: Lowry, McGrath, Gregory

Total: 82

This coalition could propose a number of possible nominees for Ceann Comhairle: Jim McDaid, Rory O'Hanlon, Jackie Healy Rae? One of these TD's may accept for their own reasons.

It is unknown how SF will vote on the election of CC or Taoiseach. They may abstain. If they do, Enda Kenny would be elected Taoiseach based on this scenario.

It is true the alternative coalition may not last a long time and an election may result in a short time. In the meantime there may be disclosures from the tribunal further undermining FF's support. There is also the issue of Beverley Flynn's backruptcy proceedings. A by-election in Mayo would almost certainly be won by FG further strengthening the alternative coalition.

The big disappointment so far is Labour's body language in relation to forming the alternative. Rabbite seems to have given up and accepted the inevitable as ordained by the media. Rabbite should show a little more fight.

[Catalina]

If Kenny is to become Taoiseach he needs 3 unlikely things to happen

1. The PDs have to jump ship from FF. This will certainly involve the retention of the Health ministry - will Labour be able to stomach this?

2. SF need to either abstain or vote for Enda Kenny for Taoiseach. The latter is unthinkable, he former, given that it may be tantamount to electing Kenny is unlikely to be popular with the Northern leadership and SF voters. FF may not be green enough for Sinn Féin's liking but their a damn sight greener than Fine Gael!

3. Beverly and Jackie need to cast aside every fibre of their political upbringing to vote for Enda Kenny. The Mayo factor could possibly swing BCF but the Healy-Rae dynasty is dependent on FF votes in Kerry. JHR is elected as a maverick FF man - his electorate would never forgive him.

FF, SF and JHR form a blocking majority of 83 votes. Unless Enda can pierce that block of votes, his task is mathematically impossible. No-one outside FG gives Enda's hopes any credence. Kenny should get his house in order for the local and European elections in 2009.

[jerryp]

Is Bertie going round the houses with his eye on doing a deal with Labour, after showing that any other arrangement could be unstable ? Cooper-Flynn could be heading for bankruptcy, panic would break out any time Healy Rae sneezed, Greens could jump ship if the army and Gardaí weren't kitted out in sandals. Problem is, Rabbitte was as insistent as Sargent about not dealing with FF. I'd say we're in for a long week and a bit !

[Phaedrus]

Catalina wrote:

If Kenny is to become Taoiseach he needs 3 unlikely things to happen

1. The PDs have to jump ship from FF. This will certainly involve the retention of the Health ministry - will Labour be able to stomach this?

2. SF need to either abstain or vote for Enda Kenny for Taoiseach. The latter is unthinkable, he former, given that it may be tantamount to electing Kenny is unlikely to be popular with the Northern leadership and SF voters. FF may not be green enough for Sinn Féin's liking but their a damn sight greener than Fine Gael!

3. Beverly and Jackie need to cast aside every fibre of their political upbringing to vote for Enda Kenny. The Mayo factor could possibly swing BCF but the Healy-Rae dynasty is dependent on FF votes in Kerry. JHR is elected as a maverick FF man - his electorate would never forgive him.

FF, SF and JHR form a blocking majority of 83 votes. Unless Enda can pierce that block of votes, his task is mathematically impossible. No-one outside FG gives Enda's hopes any credence. Kenny should get his house in order for the local and European elections in 2009.

It is possible that SF may abstain in voting for either Kenny or Ahern as Taoiseach. Both leaders have firmly ruled out a coalition with SF.

The PD's may join the alternative for reasons to do with Ahern's honesty. Therefore, demanding Health may not be an issue. Harney may decide that leaving FF and still being in government may be the best way to rebuild the party.

I wouldn't be entertaining any of these ideas were it not for the recent revelations from the tribunal. The £30,000 sterling payment from Wall is almost certainly a smokescreen for a more sinister payment. If AIB provide the necessary documentation then Ahern's position will become untenable. And if that happens, Harney certainly does not want to be in the middle of it.

[Defeated Romanticist]

I've said it before.
Our price for involvement in a rainbow is
1. Harney in Health with full control of policy
2.5 seanad seats
3.a junior ministry for Noel

The price is higher because the risk is higher.
A rainbow is not on. At the first sign of trouble either the PDs, Greens or Labour would jump ship to FF. Either of those parties would get more individually from FF than a rainbow could offer. Thats why a rainbow isn't on.

[FutureTaoiseach]

For a start, Labour won't accept the PDs in govt (imho) for reasons of ideological-incompatibility. Secondly, it is extremely unlikely a FFer - knowing the precarious Dail numbers situation - would help the Opposition by substracting their vote from the govt benches by accepting the post of CC. And even if they did so - if SF voted against the Rainbow (there's no love lost between FG and SF) - it could not come to power. Bev Flynn might yet fend off bankrupcy. The FF TD charged with assault may yet be found not guilty or - if convicted - face a punishment less than the 6 months required to disqualify a TD from the Dail. And even if both votes were lost in that manner, and assuming the Rainbow won the by-elections, that would only bring them up to 79. And even if 3 of the remaining 4 Indos then voted with the Opposition, they would only manage 82 votes. SF would be able to veto the coming to pass of a Kenny govt by voting with FF and the PDs against it.

Of course, if FG dropped its objections to SF entering a Rainbow, then the prospect of a Kenny premiership looks less unlikely. But even then, it would only make 83 TDs if A: No Rainbow TD takes up the CC's position, B: Bev Flynn and the FF backbencher involved in the assault charges lose their seats. I'm sorry but at the end of the day it's just too much of a long-shot for Kenny to make up the numbers.

[Phaedrus]

There is one aspect of this debate which the PD supporters appear to be ignoring as if it is a non-issue for PD's any more. It is the issue of the integrity of Bertie Ahern. Dessie O'Malley set up the PD's partly in response to corruption in the FF party. O'Malley was true to his principles both inside and outside government - a true test of O'Malley's integrity.

Up to 6 months ago we had no idea that Ahern accepted monies from business people for his personal use. He has now admitted to accepting thousands from numerous business people. Some of these people have been appointed to State Boards. The PD's under McDowell did not want to hear about the tribunals. Harney's moral compass may not be so askew.

[Defeated Romanticist]

Bertie hasn't been convicted of anything. He hasn't had the chance to refute anything. He is cooperating with the tribunal. Charles Haugheys corruption was behind closed doors and never dealt with while he was in power

[FutureTaoiseach]

The reality is that in the context of a extremely partial and one-sided leaking of Tribunal evidence by whoever we have not yet seen the big picture and won't until the Tribunal comes out with its final report and we should reserve judgement until then.

[Phaedrus]

Bertie hasn't been convicted of anything. He hasn't had the chance to refute anything. He is cooperating with the tribunal. Charles Haugheys corruption was behind closed doors and never dealt with while he was in power.

The PD's are becoming delusional if this is what they believe. A child wouldn't believe the explanations put forward by Ahern (e.g. My landlord gave me £30,000 in cash to do up the house I was renting from him that he eventually willed to me. I put up £50,000 myself for more refurbishment of this 4 year old house and decided not to spend it.)

Open up your eyes and don't be fools. The PD's suffered in the election for Bertiegate - not FF.