stability of new government

[jdckelly]

Election inside 2 years.

FF/PDs/Ind was a successful formula in 1997. I would puke at the thought of another election so soon.

But then there were more gene pool ind present then. Plus theres the issue of bevs money difficulties. Plus Healy Rae is 76. One by election the wrong way and majority could be lost. Plus the tribunal. A lot less stable than 97

[rockofcashel]

Actually I'm beginning to become more interested in the lack of word coming from the PD's in the last two days or so. I've no doubt that they want to go into power, and their TD from Galway said so at the weekend, but Harney hasn't uttered a word. Even after Bertie threw out the "we'd like the PD's again bone".

I'm convinced that Harney knew what was coming down the line as regards Bertie and the Tribunal when she jumped ship last year, expecting Mc Dowell to have to be the one to deal with it, and now that parcel has been passed back to her.

Is that why she's staying very quiet while Ahern and Cowen are meeting to consider "their options".

Maybe we have an electoral deadlock after all.

Another run to the country mightn't be in FF's best interest at all, because surely people are going to ask why no-one would be confident enough to touch them this time, and I'd imagine in places like Tipp South here, Healy would be likely to win back a seat if the election were held next month again.

Interesting times indeed

[Mary Frances]

I accept figures are a bit tighter than 1997.

But 78 + 2 + 2 Gene pool + McGrath (with Gregory as Ceann Comhairle) is doable.

Commentators said 1997 govt wouldn't last - it was the longest government in the history of the State. As for the pitfalls this time:

RTE's suit against Bev could take years. And her multimillionaire husband will probably come to some settlement if it does get messy.

Jackie Healy Rae has no intention of dying.

The tribunal won't make a blind bit of difference. The electorate have given their verdict on that already

[Lulu84]

Jackie Healy Rae has no intention of dying.

The tribunal won't make a blind bit of difference. The electorate have given their verdict on that already

At the risk of being pedantic, JHR won't get to choose when he croaks, although I suppose it's possible his son would take his seat in a by-election.

The electorate gave no such verdict. It's one thing to take Bertie's statement to be the truth, or to suspect corruption, but it's quite another to be found guilty of it by a tribunal. And besides I don't remember a question on my ballot paper about Bertie's finances, so it's a bit disingenous to say the electorate have given their verdict on him.

In any case it'll come down to party politics, if he's dealings are proved dodgy Cowen will have no problem giving him the boot. He's not going to want to jepordise his own political future by letting Bertie hang around longer than strictly neccessary. If Cowen doesn't command the popular vote quite the way Bertie does then he can't afford to be tied up in Bertie's dodgy dealings.

[freedomlover]

Once the Independents have decided whether to support an FF-led or an FG-led government when the Dail resumes (and its not certain yet which they will support, although it looks like enough will vote for an FF-led one), there is no chance those same Independents will then bring that government down in the next 18 months (whichever one it is). They know they'd be wiped out for precipitaing an early election. By mid 2009, we're into mid-term and its possible they could bring it down, but only if some big issue arises. Doesn't Jackie Healy-Rae have a son? If he dies, the son will probably stand in and win the bye-election. There is always the risk a different FF TD could die in a constituency where FF couldn't win the resulting bye-election, say one of the Dublin constituencies. My prediction is that this Dail will last until autumn 2009.

[The Trinity Politick]

Actually I'm beginning to become more interested in the lack of word coming from the PD's in the last two days or so. I've no doubt that they want to go into power, and their TD from Galway said so at the weekend, but Harney hasn't uttered a word. Even after Bertie threw out the "we'd like the PD's again bone".

I'm convinced that Harney knew what was coming down the line as regards Bertie and the Tribunal when she jumped ship last year, expecting Mc Dowell to have to be the one to deal with it, and now that parcel has been passed back to her.

Is that why she's staying very quiet while Ahern and Cowen are meeting to consider "their options".

Maybe we have an electoral deadlock after all.

Another run to the country mightn't be in FF's best interest at all, because surely people are going to ask why no-one would be confident enough to touch them this time, and I'd imagine in places like Tipp South here, Healy would be likely to win back a seat if the election were held next month again.

Interesting times indeed

Exactly what i was thinking. I think Harney is wiser than we give her credit for

[Limerick Lad]

Harney was in Limerick over the weekend attending the funeral of Michael Hillery, one of he founders of the PDs and apparently went off afterwards to confer with Tom Parlon and Tim O'Malley, she's obviously sounding out whether there is a future for the PDs. Does she really want to spend the next 5 years trying to rebuild the PDs from the wreckage that Mc Dowell has left behind. Unless the "Seatless Six" want to commit to fighting the next election on the PDs' behalf she and Grealish may as well join up with FF and bring their seat numbers up to 80, after all Martin Cullen rejoined FF from the PDs and continues to enjoy Ministerial office, no matter how inept.

[flyer]

FF 78 + Grn 6 = 84. Theres your government.

To make it safe make Harney CC and throw a few plum investments to Kerry & Mayo to keep Jackie & Bev voting with the government (especially in any confidence motion).

[Lulu84]

FF 78 + Grn 6 = 84. Theres your government.

To make it safe make Harney CC and throw a few plum investments to Kerry & Mayo to keep Jackie & Bev voting with the government (especially in any confidence motion).

Actually Harney as CC would be a bit genius. She won't go for it but really what better way of keeping her onside but at the same time making sure she doesn't put a spanner in the works when more Mahon revelations come out.

[THR]

Why is Ahern opting straight for the old coalition as it has lost its majority in the Dail? Why does he not even attempt to approach Labour? I understand that the Labour-leader is against a coalition with FF but if Labour wants to end its spell in the opposition, they can change their leader.

A minority government dependant on the goodwill of whimsical independent TDs can not be anything else than a weak government. Besides, as the PDs suffered a defeat, one could imagine that they might want to withdraw to the opposition to grow back to their old size. Continuing in the government despite a catastrophic election-result only means that next time they will do even worse.

The Irish election was a good example how pre-electoral pacts are not wise. Such pacts are fair to the voters as they know that for which government-alternative they are casting their votes but for the parties themselves binding to others is not clever. I mean, declaring before election that under no circumstances will we go to the same government with the party x.