How did I get it so wrong???

[Rocky]

I thought FF would do worst then they did, I thought Labour would do better, Greens do just about better, SF just about better I never thought they would get 10 seats though.

I thought FG would get about 50 seats and I thought a good few Independents would lose their seats so at least I was right there.

[KeithM]

The only things I got badly wrong is that I didn't expect the SF collapse and to a lesser extend I thought the squeeze on Labour would result in bigger seat losses.

The people who really need to contribute to this "mea culpa" thread are the likes of "meriweather" and "the analyst", who got little or nothing right.

You thought FG wouldn't get near 50 seats!!! At one stage you were predicting that they would gain only two.

That was back before the election had even been called. I posted my predictions here just before the election started;

FF71 FG49 Lab16 PD2 GP9 SF9 Oth9

I underestimated FF and FG, but was more accurate than 80% of the other predictions on these two parties and a lot closer than most of the "experts" in the media.

[factual]

I thought Mary Lou would come top of the pole in Dublin Central.

Also I espoused the view that when Sinn Féin win a marginal seat they work hard so that it becomes safe at the next election. As we can see DSC we went marginal there this time.

[ibis]

I made the mistake of thinking health was the important issue for Irish people. I failed to appeciate that in FF's Ireland people are mortgaged and indebted up to their necks. No matter how much they deislike the horrendous health service we have, they were not willing to put their income at risk.

FF have created the perfect electorate, a political equivalent to bonded servitute.

It is a stunning piece of political social engineering.

No, it was a stunning piece of electoral engineering.

1. Put the election on a Thursday, exam time, declare the dissolution on a Sunday to cut one day off the postal vote deadline.

2. Now that you've decimated the youth vote, concentrate on soft nationalism - peace process, international stature, blah blah - all of which plays well with the older electorate left after step 1.

3. Allow/encourage the media to concentrate on Bertie's personal finances, which the public really don't care about - to distract from the policy issues that FG are winning on.

4. Play up the spectre of "Sinn Fein in government", to ensure the soft nationalist vote goes to FF, not SF.

5. Don't knock FG when it claims that FF is finished, to bring out the core FF anti-FG vote.

Overall, brilliant electoral engineering.

[DerekOwens]

I thought FF would lose a substantial number of seats, but that hardly makes me remarkable. Ditto my prediction that the greens would pick up a couple, and that Labour would hold the line.

I also thought the state of public services would be an issue in the voting. As exit polls show, it wasn't.

[Carrigaline]

Like freedomlover, I predicted that Sinn Féin wouldn't do as well as expected (see the thread on the Sinn Féin forum). I was still wrong, stating that they would make only 1-2 gains rather than actually losing seats.

Not only that, I didn't predict Sean Crowe losing his seat. That easily had to be the shock of the election because unlike McDowell or Higgins, I don't think there was a person in Ireland who would have forecasted him losing out. The bookies were offering 1/33 on him being re-elected!

[HP]

I made the mistake of thinking health was the important issue for Irish people. I failed to appeciate that in FF's Ireland people are mortgaged and indebted up to their necks. No matter how much they deislike the horrendous health service we have, they were not willing to put their income at risk.

FF have created the perfect electorate, a political equivalent to bonded servitute.

It is a stunning piece of political social engineering.

No, it was a stunning piece of electoral engineering.

1. Put the election on a Thursday, exam time, declare the dissolution on a Sunday to cut one day off the postal vote deadline.

2. Now that you've decimated the youth vote, concentrate on soft nationalism - peace process, international stature, blah blah - all of which plays well with the older electorate left after step 1.

3. Allow/encourage the media to concentrate on Bertie's personal finances, which the public really don't care about - to distract from the policy issues that FG are winning on.

4. Play up the spectre of "Sinn Fein in government", to ensure the soft nationalist vote goes to FF, not SF.

5. Don't knock FG when it claims that FF is finished, to bring out the core FF anti-FG vote.

Overall, brilliant electoral engineering.

And hit labour hard where it hurts most by micro-managing the constuencies they see as gains and constantly stressing the inevitability of ff/lab to minimise transfers...

By ensuring the SSIAs were out.

By getting the pensioners on board with an increase in the pensions.

By getting Mrs Lawlor to take a case to stop Mahon (almost worked... but at least bought a lot of time..)

By making sure the constituencies weren't redrawn before the election as per the census figures....

They had a long list of "things to do to get elected..." and they basically ticked almost all the boxes.

Now if they could just manage the country the way they run their elections....

[mollox]

In Feb 2001, I had the following letter published in the Irish Times (note the Pre-Madam address)

How could I have got it so wrong????

Fine Gael Leadership
Sir, - It's difficult to see either of the coup leaders as visionaries who will succeed where John Bruton failed - in motivating and mobilising a fairly jaded party. I suggest Fine Gael take the opportunity to look outside the party for possible leadership candidates. Let me start the list: Pat Cox and Michael McDowell. - Yours, etc.,

[HP]

In Feb 2001, I had the following letter published in the Irish Times (note the Pre-Madam address)

How could I have got it so wrong????

Fine Gael Leadership
Sir, - It's difficult to see either of the coup leaders as visionaries who will succeed where John Bruton failed - in motivating and mobilising a fairly jaded party. I suggest Fine Gael take the opportunity to look outside the party for possible leadership candidates. Let me start the list: Pat Cox and Michael McDowell. - Yours, etc.,

lol

Thank God the FGers read the Indo!

[seamusin]

I made the mistake of thinking health was the important issue for Irish people. I failed to appeciate that in FF's Ireland people are mortgaged and indebted up to their necks. No matter how much they deislike the horrendous health service we have, they were not willing to put their income at risk.

FF have created the perfect electorate, a political equivalent to bonded servitute.

It is a stunning piece of political social engineering.

No, it was a stunning piece of electoral engineering.

1. Put the election on a Thursday, exam time, declare the dissolution on a Sunday to cut one day off the postal vote deadline.

2. Now that you've decimated the youth vote, concentrate on soft nationalism - peace process, international stature, blah blah - all of which plays well with the older electorate left after step 1.

3. Allow/encourage the media to concentrate on Bertie's personal finances, which the public really don't care about - to distract from the policy issues that FG are winning on.

4. Play up the spectre of "Sinn Fein in government", to ensure the soft nationalist vote goes to FF, not SF.

5. Don't knock FG when it claims that FF is finished, to bring out the core FF anti-FG vote.

Overall, brilliant electoral engineering.

hmm, you got me believing your conspiracy theories. they're crafty buggers ain't they