Any Election news today - in spite of the media blackout?

[Lulu84]

The message is also getting across that a leftwing govt cannot be a pro-enterprise govt.

FT, do you have to try and convert people in every single post? That slogan is almost as tired as FG's contract.

I don't think we can trust any poll that comes round now. Spoof or not, chances of them been accurate at this stage are slim. Although maybe SBP are just bored as they clearly have nothing to write about that won't be irrelevant by Sunday.

[Insider2007]

On reflection must be a spoof one - it's for Sunday Business Post according to the front page - why would the be commissioning a poll for reporting next Sunday - would be old news by then.

Its real. Red C is doing a series of polls throughout the election so it is no surprise they would do one in the last week. It is more for historic interest than anything else.

It also blows the MRBI one out of the water, which is no surprise as no-one in the parties believed it. Overall it shows the rainbow 2 points ahead of FF-PD and will be carried on election day by the newspapers and possibly RTÉ.

FG-Lab-GN will have high levels of intra-party transfers whereas FF-PD will have just themselves. FF will benefit from SF but not necessarily very strongly as many SF voters just vote SF and stop (as do a relatively high level of FF). So the rainbow will gain extra traction from the transfers and deliver a greater efficient seat delivery than FF-PD.

That poll suggests a hung Dáil but with FG-Lab-GN more likely to form a government than FF-PD. The PDs will not accept any SF support and remain with FF. FF-PD on these numbers will be not have the numbers, as the FF genepoll is generally expected to shrink substantially with retirements (Fox) and losses (possibly Healy Rae, Connolly, James Breen possibly. Blaney is now in the party but losing a seat), etc.

The poll also will not have caught the full force of FF's goof-ups yesterday so that may lead to more slippage. In addition FF traditionally comes in lower than polls suggest, so 38% may in reality mean 36-37% whereas FG does better. FG did 4% better than predicted by Red C before the last European elections. So that probably means its 26% will deliver 27-28% or more.

[mickeyc]

It shows the PDs won't be wiped out. It also shows that we are headed for another FF-PD govt except propped up by Independents. I would also add that even if FG-Lab-Green did get 43% to FF-PDs 41%, that it wouldn't give the Rainbow as many seats as FF-PD because transfers between Rainbow candidates of different parties would never be as solid as those between FF candidates. I would also point out that in 2004, Red C actually underestimated the FF vote. Also, FF-SF would have 47% and FF-Labour 49% with FF-Green being 44%. Seems that it's business as usual for FG - always the bridesmaid never the bride. The message is also getting across that a leftwing govt cannot be a pro-enterprise govt.

The Rainbow can't get an overall majority on the basis of this. BTW I understood that the Red C national polls only appear in the Sunday Business Post. So is this poll gonna be in the press tomorrow or not?

So why are you cheerleading Labour, SF and the Greens joined with your beloved FF?