TNS/mrbi's poll now seen by ALL parties as rogue poll

[Insider2007]

A consensus has developed across all the parties this morning and afternoon that the TNS/mrbi poll in today's Irish Times is a rogue poll.

Rogue polls are a statistically flawed poll which occur on average in one poll in twenty polls. They can be caused in one of two ways:

i) the sample chosen was inadvertently unpresentative of the electorate.

ii) the statistical interpretation or weighting applied to the numbers taken from samples produce mathematical errors.

Rogue polls can be spotted by a number of features:

- the results are out of sync with comparible data
- the results clash in with all credible trends and information

A number of MRBI polls of late has come out with bizarre results.

No-one in any party believed their poll when they showed Fianna Fáil dropping to 31%.

No-one, not even FG, believed it when they said that FG was at 31%.

Now no-one, not even FF, believes FF is at 41%.

FF believes it is in the region of 38-39%. Fine Gael thinks it is at 37%.

FF and FG both believe that FG is around 28%.

All the parties rubbish claims that Labour has lost 3%. And the numbers quoted for Dublin were openly laughed at across the parties. David Davin Power on Six One openly said that "even the most sanguine Fianna Fáil supporter" does not believe the poll numbers.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Well if FF is 39% that's within 2% of 41% so within the margin of error. Anyway I think there has been a big swing to FF because of Enda's hapless performance last week and Rabbitte's menopausal moment.

[rockofcashel]

Haha.. poor old Gaelers.. this poll was a rogue because it said the alternative was screwed. Thing is, it may not matter what the parties think, it's the perception of the electorate that matters. If they percieve that the Alternative is gone, then it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy

[meriwether]

"It was the menopause wot won it".

Seriously, party political nonsense aside, if anyone, not just Rabbitte was to lose support because of the menopause comment, it would make us a laughing stock.
I mean for all the things for Rabbitte to lose support over, the menopause is it?

[baldur0300]

Ok I'm not going to go looking for them but I remember various blushirts posting that the MRBI poll was the most accurate. It shows an increase in FF numbers and suddenly its rogue. Sour grapes anyone?

[meriwether]

Haha.. poor old Gaelers.. this poll was a rogue because it said the alternative was screwed. Thing is, it may not matter what the parties think, it's the perception of the electorate that matters. If they percieve that the Alternative is gone, then it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy

What will constitute a moral victory for yourself next Thursday?
2k votes? 3k?

[jerryp]

2 FFer's last night and 3 during the day ( all of whom have been canvassing ) have told me they don't believe it either. In fairness, a few more do believe it. Those who were sceptical thought the correct figures were in a range of 35% to 39%.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Some Labour TDs will soon be having their own "change of life" as ex-TDs.

[NeilW]

Rogue polls are a statistically flawed poll which occur on average in one poll in twenty polls.

This has to be some of the most ridiculous statistical mumbo jumbo I've heard in ages - say since I last heard someone try to argue a simple poll of polls was against all current statistical theory .

That said - yes, this poll does indeed look out. So what.

[meriwether]

Some Labour TDs will soon be having their own "change of life" as ex-TDs.

Not bad. Better than I expected!

HRT will be on the menu for the voters of Dublin West soon enough.
Harney replacement therapy