Fianna Fáil -Fine Gael Coalition

[mactheknife]

Both the FF-PD and proposed FG-Labour-Green coalitions fall short of the required 83 seats to form a government.

The Progressive Democrats refuse to enter government with Labour, whilst Labour and the Green Party refuse to enter coalition with the PDs. Everyone refuses to enter into coalition with Sinn Féin and Labour refuses to enter into coalition with Fianna Fáil.

A proposed FF-SF coalition would in all likelihood fall short of the required 83 seat and thus is probably irrelevant in any case, as would the prospect of a Labour-Green-Sinn Féin coalition.

Formation of the forthcoming government could depend on independents -of which there are 14, but are likely to fall significantly -and such a minority coalition supported by independents could be unstable.

Besides FF-Labour, the only other feasible coalition is FF-FG.

Why not? While they perhaps would not agree, there is very little sunstantive difference between the two in terms of policy and even general outlook. They are both conservative, centre right political parties and all that separates them is 'history'.

This election is crucial for Labour in particular. They are not likely to gain many seats -they may in fact suffer a net loss -but if in the event of a hung Dáíl they refuse to support either FF or FG they can force these parties together.

Why? There is no substantive difference between the two and a FF-FG coalition would demonstrate just that. Meanwhile Labour could be the chief opposition party for the first time in eighty years. Only from this position could Labour ever hope to build up its support from the low base they currently possess.

Sinn Féin, the Socialist Party and others are delighted at Labour's dilemma -because that's what it is: to support either one of two conservative parties diammetrically opposed to its supposed philosophy - and are counting on Labour to enter into government. But the prospect of a hung Dáíl offers Labour a get out clause to the current 'Mullingar accord' arrangement, honourably. In the event of a hung Dáil all bets are off: they can refuse to enter coalition with FG if that party has failed to attract enough support. However, they needn't enter coalition with FF either.

Labour's history since 1927 has been that of supporting minority governments and entering coalitions as a minor partner. Time to step out of the shadows? Have Labour no ambition to overtake FG as the principle opposition? Instead they have breathed life back into Fine Gael -with nothing to show for it in terms of increased support -but its not over yet.

So, what's it going to be??

[Limerick Lad]

There are already at two or three other threads already exploring this option.

[Ulysses]

There are already at two or three other threads already exploring this option.

And hey, there have already been hundreds of debates about this option in the last 40 years or so - Jaysus, maybe even longer.

It's not gonna happen.

[the crimson chin]

FG would get consumed by FF and it would be the end of them. It makes sense for them to go into power with FF but they would never do it. Also FF probably wouldnt do it because its better to have a weak opposer that you know well, rather than a new young, dynmaic opposition. It would be best for the country and Labour, but they wont do it because FF and FG care more about being in power themselves than the country.

[mactheknife]

Very true, but it's not really FF or FG's choice to as to whom Labour will support: it's Labour's. How do Labour member's feel about this eventuality?

It's a lose-lose-lose situation for Labour: but one option has the potential to transform them. That's the real story of this election, "What choice will Labour make?"