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PaddyPower has issued their poll conducted by RedC to Politics.ie.
These compare with the Sunday Business Post Poll by RedC that came out on Saturday.
PaddyPower RedC 23rd of February
Undecided 13%Code:FG 40% (+1) Lab 18% (+1) FF 15% (-1) SF 10% (-1) Ind 14% Grn 3% (+1)
Some background
1500 adults aged 18+ were polled voting intentions, and 1000 were polled for all
other questions, respondents were polled by telephone between the 19th – 22nd February
Some analysis and observations on this poll:
The final poll of the GE11 campaign, with polling conducted right up to the 22nd February,
sees voters continue to make up their minds leaving just 13% undecided, as we move
into the final few days.
Fine Gael support continues on the gradual ascent seen throughout the campaign, with
the party securing 40% share of the first preference vote overall, up another 1% since
the weekend, but perhaps a little short of what may be needed for an overall majority.
Labour manages to correct some of its decline in recent polls by securing 18% share.
This may suggest the party has turned the corner on its recent declines, and may yet see
further small improvements by polling day. Today’s poll does leave the party at almost
double the support they achieved in 2007, but it is still somewhere behind where they
had hoped to be at the start of the campaign.
Fianna Fail support falls back slightly in this final poll, leaving the party on just 15% first
preference share. When adjustments are made for possible “shy voters” the party may
secure closer to 17% - but this is still a long way behind the mid 20’s target set when
Michael Martin took over as leader.
Sinn Fein support also slips back slightly in this poll to leave them securing 10% of the
first preference vote. Given that the parties voters are possibly the least likely to actually
go and vote, to achieve this share on polling day would certainly be an improvement on
the 7% achieved in 2007.
The Green Party takes a 3% share of the vote, although the reality is that the party has
been trending at 2.5% throughout the campaign and continues to do so. It is only
rounding which leaves them on either 2% or 3% in different polls. They will however be
happy to see support stronger in Dublin at 5%, where most of their possible seat takers
are based.
Support for Independents & Other Parties, remains very high at 14%, where they have
been consistently polling during the campaign. However, the seat return on this may not
be as high as expected, as there are so many independent candidates that their share of
the vote is likely to be fragmented
So how likely is it that this poll will be replicated on Election Day?
The fact that the undecided voters is so low gives confidence to the results. However, it
should be noted that there are still 32% who are pretty sure, but haven’t completely made
up their minds; and another 9% who definitely haven't made up their minds yet. This
means that parties do have votes to fight for in the last days.
The Independent candidates share of the vote looks most at threat from this uncertainly,
with almost half saying they have not completely made up their minds yet. Given how
many Independent Candidate voters were previously Fianna Fail supporters, this does
perhaps suggest that FF could potentially get a small boost come Election Day.
There are also 9% of those claiming they will vote Fine Gael who also suggest they have
not completely made up their minds yet. This suggests that Fine Gael do still need to be
careful not to mess anything up, between now and Election Day.
Slides and breakdown detail will be available in a moment.
Adrian Kavanagh has predicted the following seats based on these figures:
Seat estimates based on Red C-Paddy Power poll: FF 21, FG 80, LB 34, SF 13, GP 0, OTH 18 (7, Right, 11 Left - 6 ULA)
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Originally Posted by NFD100
