Could there be an FG/Labour/Green/Sinn Fein Coalition?

[freedomlover]

Most people have assumed that, if ever Sinn Fein go into government, it will be part of an FF-led coalition. However, this is most unlikely. FF have ruled it out and, if they break that promise, they'd pay for it at the subsequent election, which wouldn't be more than a couple of years away.

Historically, its Fine Gael who have been far more promiscuous about which other parties they get into to bed with to form a government than Fianna Fail have been. For most of its history, Fianna Fail wouldn't even consider going into coalition with anyone, they'd prefer to go into opposition if they couldn't form a government on their own. This policy was only changed in 1989. Since then Fianna Fail have formed governments only with the PDs and Labour, both mainstream parties. In contrast, in the past Fine Gael has formed coalitions with all sorts of oddball parties, some from the totally opposite end of the political spectrum to where Fine Gael itself sat.

This derives from the fact that Fine Gael has been out of office for far longer periods than has Fianna Fail. Since 1932 Fianna Fail has never been out of office for more than 4 years. In contrast, Fine Gael were out of office for 16 years from 1932 to 48, for 16 years from 1957 to 1973 and for 17.5 of the past 20 years. Being out of office for politicians is like going without sex. The longer it goes on, the less choosy they become about who to get into bed with.

If Fianna Fail and the PDs are unable to form a government after May 24, Fianna Fail at least will lose no sleep. They've had a good run. They'll consider it a rest period before they get back into power at the next election. They'll feel no need to scrape the bottom of the barrel to look for a coalition partner. Fianna Fail has never lost an election when they went into it as the Opposition party.

In contrast, if Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens combined don't get enough seats to form a government, it will be desperation time for the leaders of Fine Gael. Most of them have never held office, or only briefly from November 94 to June 97. If they can't get into government after this election, they're bound to think they'll never get into government. In that event, they are bound to feel tempted to bring Sinn Fein into the prospective coalition. After all, what's the difference between an FG/Labour/Green government and a FG/Labour/Green/Sinn Fein government. One grouping is as ideologically incompatible as the other.

There are precedents for this. The only times that post Civil War IRA leaders have got into government here was as part of Fine Gael-led governments, although only when a decent interval of a decade or so had elapsed from the time the said IRA leaders gave up violence. In 1948 and 1954 Fine Gael went into government with Clann Na Poblachta, a party comprised mainly of the IRA leaders of the 1930s. History repeated itself when Fine Gael went into coalition with Democratic Left in 1994, a party comprised mainly of Official IRA leaders of the 1960s and early 1970s. Its now a decade since the Provisional IRA ended its campaign. For Fine Gael to invite the leaders of Sinn Fein into a coalition government wouldn't be fundamentally any different to their bringing Clann NaPoblachta into a coalition government in 1948 and 1954 or bringing Democratic Left into a coalition government in 1994.

[CookieMonster]

No. Not one tiny little chance at all.

[factual]

I would prefer Sinn Féin to join a left wing coalition than a right wing coalition. Regardless of whether FF or FG, the commitment to equality and the least well off would be the key thing for me.

[seamasdefaoite]

will never happen, more possibility of michael mcdowell becoming taoiseach

[Sidewinder]

Everyone keeps saying it won't happen, but if the choice is between a Third Inter-Party Government and FF/SF/Ind or FF/Lab then FG would be wise to consider it. It may be their only chance of power for the next 16 years.

Put it this way: for those who dislike SF (and there's plenty to dislike) - who would you rather have keeping an eye on them in office, FG/Lab/Green or FF? Depending on the way the seats fall, SF could well be the fourth wheel, smaller in seat terms than the Greens.

Hold yer nose and consider it "housetraining" if you like. As the man said, there's plenty of precedent.

[Iarmhi Gael]

About as much chance as FF delievering on their 2002 Election campaign even at this late stage.

No one wants to touch SF because they will be faced with the likes of what McDowell said the other night. NI is different they faced that stuff in the public in the lates 90's but went on to hold councils active members of cross border bodies and are seen as workers.

Its too early for them in the Republic. 5 years time they will be in a much stronger position

[alkmaar67]

Not as remote as people may think - possible reason for the change in SF taxation policy.

[White Horse]

In many ways, it would be politically easier for Fine Gael to coalesce with Sinn Fein. Fianna Fail would be open to the accusation that they are just Sinn Fein "lite".

However, Fine Gael would have McDowell's mad dogs barking like mad and could run the risk of alienating their support.

FG had nothing to lose in 1948 when they formed the first Inter Party government. In addition, DeValera was sending the country back to the middle ages. For all of Ahern's fault he isn't an evil monster.

I don't think it will happen. Not that it is an impossible idea. Politics will get in the way.

[CJH]

From a FF point of view, if the party is to go into opposition, the more parties in government the better. But I doubt SF would go in with FG. In spite of what they say in public about no caring either way, they are not stupid. The obvious parallel is Clann na Poblachta, and we know what happened to them after they went into power with FG. The SF base would recoil at the idea of being in government with the blueshirts

[Dasayev]

We should remember that Clann na Poblachta had Seán McBride and Noel Browne. Sinn Féin doesn't have personalities like that.

Plus most of the politicians of that era were in the Old IRA. So it was less of a deal then than now.