Cetic Tiger ROARS on.

[freedomlover]

Latest figures on the economy make nonsense of politically-motivated
claims that the economy is heading for recession. In the past week alone
the CSO has released the following figures:

(1) manufacturing output UP 13.9 per cent in volume in the first quarter

(2) retail sales UP 7.2 per cent in volume in the first quarter

(3) An increase in employment of 76,000 in the first quarter of 2007 as
compared with a year ago.

In short, the Celtic Tiger ROARS on. The only evidence for a slowdown is
that two economic forecasting organsations predict it. These are ESRI and
DAVY. So, its illuminating to look at the past record of these two
organisations. The only question to be asked is whether their hopeless
forecasting record is the result of incompetence or whether its because
their forecasts are politically-motivated.

From the Irish Times - 28 September 2001:

"ESRI is predicting growth of 2 per cent in 2002"

FACT:

the eventual outcome was that GDP grew by 6.0 per cent in 2002 and
GNP grew by 3.2 per cent in 2002

From the The Observer - 21 October 2001:

"Robbie Kelleher, of Davy Stockbrokers, said the economy had fallen off
a cliff and that growth in 2002 would be minus 3 or 4 per cent"

FACT:

the eventual outcome was that GDP grew by 6.0 per cent in 2002 and
GNP grew by 3.2 per cent in 2002

From the Irish Times - 8 July 2003:

"ESRI has cut its growth forecasts for this year. It has revised down its
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for 2003 from 3 per cent to 2.6"

FACT:

the eventual outcome was that GDP grew by 4.3 per cent in 2003

From the Irish Times - 14 April 2004:

"In its latest economic forecast, Davy predicts that growth will slow to
2.6 per cent in 2005"

FACT:

the eventual outcome was that GDP grew by 5.5 per cent in 2005 and
GNP grew by 5.4 per cent in 2005

From the Irish Times - 11 August 2005:

"Stockbroking firm Davy has lowered its forecasts for growth in GNP in
2006 to 4 per cent"

FACT:

the eventual outcome was that GDP grew by 7.4 per cent in 2005

[I'm in Labour]

OK - but what's your point?

[MichaelHennigan]

So pray tell who has been making "politically-motivated claims that the economy is heading for recession" ?

- a recession, defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth.

Apart from possibly cronies of yours on pub stools, I don't know of anyone who has any credibility in economics who has made such a claim.

[freedomlover]

Headline to article in Irish Times last Monday:

"Inevitable recession awaits poll winners".

By Michael Casey.

Point is we have two of the worst economic forecasting organisations in the world.

[Defeated Romanticist]

There will be no recession if we vote right

[I'm in Labour]

Point is we have two of the worst economic forecasting organisations in the world.

My apologies. I couldn't agree more and it's been like that for quite some time.

[Seos]

Headline to article in Irish Times last Monday:

"Inevitable recession awaits poll winners".

By Michael Casey.

Point is we have two of the worst economic forecasting organisations in the world.

I didn't read the article but recessions are sort of inevitable.

Whether it happens in the next 5 years is hard to know, it's likely for a slowdown in growth to happen, a few big factors would have to work together for a recession though, it would probably be an outside effect not internal that would cause one though.

[freedomlover]

Death is inevitable but it doesn't mean you're going to die this year or in the next five years or in the next ten years. Ireland hasn't had a recession since 1983. We didn't have one after the dotcom bubble burst, or after 9/11 or after the quadrupling of oil prices. None is even remotely on the horizon. We can easily go another decade or two without one. But, the Irish Times and some economists have been predicting one every year. Sometime in the next few weeks David McWilliams will be making his one millionth prediction of an Irish economic crash. The Irish Times is going of its way in this election campaign to con voters into believing one is just around the corner. The figures I quoted in my first post make a nonsense of that. Geraldine Kennedy should resign.

[Rich OC]

While I agree with the gist of the posts about the ESRI (consistently wrong) and Davy (who release these things as a form of advertising - so "Economy to do OK" doesn't really cut it), there was a slowdown which began at the end of 2002 and continued for quite a bit of 2003. Who can forget all of the "Charlie McCreevy lied to us" hysteria after the last election?

The situation then, as now is that we don't need recession for economics to be a reason to upset people - a slowdown from the continuing high growth rates will feel as if we are in a recession.

[Seos]

Death is inevitable but it doesn't mean you're going to die this year or in the next five years or in the next ten years. Ireland hasn't had a recession since 1983. We didn't have one after the dotcom bubble burst, or after 9/11 or after the quadrupling of oil prices. None is even remotely on the horizon. We can easily go another decade or two without one. But, the Irish Times and some economists have been predicting one every year.

That's exactly why they're predicting one. To use your analogy it's like when someone has gone past the life expectancy sure they could live another 30 years but it's unlikely. Of course it's just their best guess with likelyhood on it's side and they should call it that and not a "prediction".

Sometime in the next few weeks David McWilliams will be making his one millionth prediction of an Irish economic crash. The Irish Times is going of its way in this election campaign to con voters into believing one is just around the corner. The figures I quoted in my first post make a nonsense of that. Geraldine Kennedy should resign.

They would make the point that they are just reporting what the economists are saying and if that happens to sell newspapers then all the better... The economists who want to be well known can predict that we'll hit part of the economic cycle and look smart when we do. The media has not reported properly on economy at all, it reports dramatic things like closures while the statistic that more jobs have been created then have gone is just one article once per quarter.