New Poll: 51% Want Fianna Fáil To Lead Next Government

[TKwhiskers]

A new opinion poll shows that a majority of voters would prefer a different combination of parties in Government after the next election.

The poll in tomorrow's Irish Times indicates more voters support a coalition led by Fianna Fáil than one involving Fine Gael.

Asked if they wanted the existing Fianna Fáil PD coalition, or a new combination of parties in Government after the next election, 32% opted for the current Government, while 55% said they wanted an alternative.

The poll suggests 30% want Fianna Fáil and the PDs in Government, with just 16% backing Fine Gael and Labour, while 9% favour a combination of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens.

8% want Fianna Fáil and Labour, while 7% hope for a Fianna Fáil/Sinn Féin Government.

None of the other options break 5% support.

Looking at which party would be leading the various options, 51% chose a coalition involving Fianna Fáil, compared to 36% who want Fine Gael to lead the Government.

RTE.ie

Even with FF on a two year low in the polls, 51% of people still want Bertie Ahern to lead the next Government. Things doesn't bode well for Enda Kenny's chances for becoming the next Taoiseach.

On a side note it looks like people are fed up with McDowell and Harney. Is this the end for the PDs... lets hope so.

[Jim84]

55% want an alternative.
But the only alternative there is gets 16%

That can't be right seen that Lab/FG party support is 39%

[TKwhiskers]

55% want an alternative.
But the only alternative there is gets 16%

That can't be right seen that Lab/FG party support is 39%

The writing is on the wall, 55% of people want rid of the Progressive Democrats and their ideologically driven right wing policies.

Seems pretty clear to me; 51% want a Fianna Fáil led Government verses 25% for a Fine Gael led ram-shackle Government.

[Jim84]

But only 8% want an FF/Lab coalition.


I thinking the public don't know what they want.

They don't want FF on their own, they don't want them with the PDs, They don't want them with Labour, and they don't want them with SF

And they just don't want FG period!

[TKwhiskers]

And they just don't want FG period!

I think that’s a fair assessment

[BarryW]

Even with FF on a two year low in the polls, 51% of people still want Bertie Ahern to lead the next Government. Things doesn't bode well for Enda Kenny's chances for becoming the next Taoiseach.

On a side note it looks like people are fed up with McDowell and Harney. Is this the end for the PDs... lets hope so.

Look TK - don't get too excited. These figures aren't exactly a revelation.
You could have made them out from Saturday's poll data.

Working on general approximations:
51% for the FF-led government = All FF support; all Shinner support; more or less all PD support; and a small piece of Labour support

32+11+4+2 = 49

36% for FG alternative = All FG support, most of the rest of Labour, most of the Greens

25+10+4 = 39


And thats before you factor in Independent/"Others" voters, who's opinions may disproportionately affect either side.

So you see, the 51% and 36% figures aren't as shocking as they seem.

51% may seem like a very comfortable figure for many FFers - (great....lull 'em into a false sense of security!) but it isn't

Bertie only has the support of 51% of the electorate in the event of an FF/PD/SF/Labour-dissident coalition

And how likely is that ?!

[Ulysses]

I dunno about those numbers. I reckon Enda Kenny is a liability for FG (if such a thing were possible). He just doesn't come across right. And does anyone think the FF numbers might be better if Bertie Ahern was no longer leader? He's been around a long time, maybe the ennui factor has set in, no?

[BarryW]

I dunno about those numbers. I reckon Enda Kenny is a liability for FG (if such a thing were possible)

Liability?
FG are at their highest point in the polls for 5 years.

On the other hand, FF under Ahern have lost a quarter of their support since 2002.

Who looks to be more of a liability?

[rockofcashel]

I dunno about those numbers. I reckon Enda Kenny is a liability for FG (if such a thing were possible)

Liability?
FG are at their highest point in the polls for 5 years.

On the other hand, FF under Ahern have lost a quarter of their support since 2002.

Who looks to be more of a liability?

Can anyone explain one of the findings of the poll.

25% of those who expressed that they will vote for FG in the next GE, do not want FG to lead the government after the GE.

does this show that trying to take trends from national polls is a bit of a waste of time, and that localised candidate support is getting even stronger than overall party support.

[BarryW]

25% of those who expressed that they will vote for FG in the next GE, do not want FG to lead the government after the GE

Does the IT give a detailed breakdown like that?
If so, then that certainly is bizarre. Perhaps it could be because there is an element of the electorate who are set on who they are going to vote for, but aren't that animated re. who bands together to form a government........sounds silly, but its a possibility.

This is similar to the bizarre poll a few months ago which found that approximately 6-7% of the population think SF is involved in crime; and that Adams is a liar and a leading member of an illegal terrorist organisaion.........but they still see no problem with SF entering government.

Maybe someone should re-visit the "is the electorate stupid" thread ?!