Surplus Transfer in PR

[croppyboy]

4. The next stage is to transfer any surplus votes for these elected candidates, i.e. the difference between their vote and the quota needed to be elected. To avoid the problem of deciding which of the votes are surplus, all ballot papers are transferred but at a reduced value so that the total adds up to the number of surplus votes.

Above quote from pickyourparty.ie (having come dangerously close to SF, Labour and worst of all FG on individual topics breathed a sigh of relief when FF emerged as my natural home at end.. but I digress)

Now from above would suggest some form of weighting is applied when surplus is counted - that all votes (including quota) are inspected and somehow the next preferences are extrapolated to match the size of the surplus.

Now that may be true with eVoting but I understood that with our oul pencils and paper it was literally a random 'top of the pile' that formed the surplus??

Anyone got any more insight into this?

[KingKane]

croppy, that is wrong in the Irish context.

I'm more and more surprised at the pickyourparty folks who appear to be academics and yet plainly do not understand how STV-PR in Ireland works.

The method they refer to was technically possible with E-voting but was ruled out in the spec for the development of the software.

[kerrynorth]

If you are distributing the surplus from an elected candidates first prefs. then all first prefs are counted and the quota is distributed on the basis of the valid 2nd prefs (or 3rd and subsequent prefs if there are candidates already eliminated at the time of the distribution of the surplus, this could happen if there is only a small surplus and it was too small to make a difference on elimations or in getting any candidate over 25% of the quota to 'save expenses' which is the E8000 contribution to a candidates costs if they obtain 25%+ of the quota). The returning officer will then round the figures to a whole number and physically take that number of transfers, which are random, from the top of the pile and on top of the pile of the candidate receiving the transfer.

Where a candidate has a surplus to transfer after receiving a transfer then the process is gone through only this time the transfer is calculated and comes from that transfer batch that put the candidate over the quota and not the entire vote of the elected candidate.

This is how it is laid out in the Constitution and the evoting machines had to apply the same rules!

[KingKane]

No lads, there is no rounding or counting of all 2nd prefs, a bunch of votes are selected that match the size of the surplus and these are the transferred votes. That is why the selection of the votes to be transferred is so important and that is why a full recount can have a different outcome.

They do what you are talking about in the north for the assembly elections but not down here.

All the constitution says is "The voting shall be by secret ballot and on the system of proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote.", the word surplus doesn't even occur in it.

[QuizMaster]

To distribute a first count surplus, they do count all the votes and divide down.

In later counts they use random sampling.

[Rebelman]

To distribute a first count surplus, they do count all the votes and divide down.

In later counts they use random sampling.

That would be my view as well

[kerrynorth]

To distribute a first count surplus, they do count all the votes and divide down.

In later counts they use random sampling.

That would be my view as well

Yes. As I laid out out in my post. I seen many a returning officer tear their hair out over a calculator trying to distribute a surplus.

[dgl]

From the Politics.ie wiki ( http://www.politics.ie/wiki/index.php?title=PR-STV ) based on oasis.gov.ie:

"Surplus votes
If a candidate receives more than the quota on any count, the surplus votes are transferred to the remaining candidates in proportion to the next available preferences indicated by voters (i.e., the next preference on each vote for a candidate who has not been elected or eliminated). For example, if candidate A receives 900 votes more than the quota on the first count and on examining all of his or her votes, it is found that 30% of these have next available preferences for candidate B, then candidate B does not get 30% of all candidate A's votes, candidate B gets 30% of his/her surplus, i.e., 270 votes (30% of 900). This is enacted through a transfer of a random selection of votes, rather than by an absolute percentage.

Where a candidate is elected at the second or at later count, only the votes that brought him/her over the quota are examined in the surplus distribution, i.e., the parcel of votes last transferred to the elected candidate. "

[kerrynorth]

From the Politics.ie wiki ( http://www.politics.ie/wiki/index.php?title=PR-STV ) based on oasis.gov.ie:

"Surplus votes
If a candidate receives more than the quota on any count, the surplus votes are transferred to the remaining candidates in proportion to the next available preferences indicated by voters (i.e., the next preference on each vote for a candidate who has not been elected or eliminated). For example, if candidate A receives 900 votes more than the quota on the first count and on examining all of his or her votes, it is found that 30% of these have next available preferences for candidate B, then candidate B does not get 30% of all candidate A's votes, candidate B gets 30% of his/her surplus, i.e., 270 votes (30% of 900). This is enacted through a transfer of a random selection of votes, rather than by an absolute percentage.

Where a candidate is elected at the second or at later count, only the votes that brought him/her over the quota are examined in the surplus distribution, i.e., the parcel of votes last transferred to the elected candidate. "

Is that any different from what I said!

[Retired Tallyman]

Might I throw in my twopence worth here. A surplus is divided by looking at all the of the next available votes of the elected person and this is calculated as a precentage for each candidate. Then the surplus is divided along these precentage lines which says that candidate A is entitled to 51 votes, B 121 and C 13 etc. the returning officer then takes these numbers at random from off the bundles of 50 for the elected candidate, perhaps one or 2 from each bundle and this parcel is marked as surplus 51 from elected to A (2nd Count).

I feel that I must correct King Kane who said that in a recount there is a re-randomisation. This is NOT true. A recount is in effect a recheck of every vote in every bundle but there is NO re-distribution of surpluses which may get a different result. I have spoken at length to a returning oficer about this in the midst of one of several recounts that I have been involved in and was informed politely that i would need a high court order to have a full recount from scratch and it has never happened.

So a recount is just a check on the accuracy of the original count. It mainly checks that numbers in bundles are correct, that every paper is stamped corectly (Make sure that when you vote that your ballot paper is marked) and that the vote has gone to the correct candidate.

Finally when dividing a surplus and calculating the precentage in which they are divided the non-transferable are not used in the calculation and I have never got a satisfactory answer why but it is in the electoral act.