A breakdown of 1st Preference votes to seats ratio since '82

[Iarmhi Gael]

Feb 1982
FF - 47.3% - 81 seats
FG - 37.3% - 63 Seats
Lab - 9.1% - 15 seats

Nov 1982
FF - 45.2% - 75 seats
FG - 39.2% - 70 seats
Labour - 9.4% - 16 seats
WP - 3.3% - 2 seats

Feb 1987
FF - 44% - 81 Seats
FG - 27.1% - 50 seats
PD's - 11.8% - 14 seats
Lab - 6.4 % - 12 Seats
WP - 3.8% - 4 seats

June 1989
FF - 44% - 77
FG - 29% - 55 seats
Lab - 9.5 % - 15 Seats
WP - 5% - 7 seats
PD's 5.5% - 6 seats

Nov 1992
FF - 39.1% - seats
FG - 24.5 % - 45 seats
Lab - 19.3% - 33 seats
PD's - 4.7 % - 10 seats
DL - 2.8% - 4 seats
GP - 1.4% - 1 seat

1997
FF - 39.3% - 77 seats
FG - 27.9% - 54 seats
LAb - 12.9% - 21 seats
PD's - 4.7% - 4 seats
GP - 2.8% - 2 seats
SF - 2.6% - 1 seat
Soc - 0.7% - 1 seat

June 2002
FF - 41.5 - 81 seats
FG - 22.5% - 31 seats
LAb - 10.8% - 20 seats
PD's - 4% - 8 seats
GP - 3.8% - 6 seats
SF - 6.5% - 5 seats
Soc - 0.8% - 1 seat



If you take the last 2 elections on average
1 seat for FF = 0.51% of 1st Preference Vote
1 seat for FG = 0.59% of 1st Preference Vote
1 seat for Lab = 0.57% of 1st Preference Vote
1 seat for PD's = 0.83% of 1st Preference Vote
1 seat for GP = 1.01% of 1st Preference Vote

[Iarmhi Gael]

So if you take this morning Indo Poll It translates into the following seats

FF 35% = 68 seats
FG 26% = 44 seats
Lab 13% = 22 seats
Green 5% = 5 seats
PD 3%= 3 seats

[factual]

So if you take this morning Indo Poll It translates into the following seats

FF 35% = 68 seats
FG 26% = 44 seats
Lab 13% = 22 seats
Green 5% = 5 seats
PD %= 3 seats

...leaving Sinn Féin with its 10-odd seats as kingmakers!

[mmhp]

So if you take this morning Indo Poll It translates into the following seats

FF 35% = 68 seats
FG 26% = 44 seats
Lab 13% = 22 seats
Green 5% = 5 seats
PD %= 3 seats

...leaving Sinn Féin with its 10-odd seats as kingmakers!

kingmakers no one will touch them FF won't if they know what's good for them it would be a short lived govt!!
FG/LAB/GREENs the only option!!!!!

[Iarmhi Gael]

So if you take this morning Indo Poll It translates into the following seats

FF 35% = 68 seats
FG 26% = 44 seats
Lab 13% = 22 seats
Green 5% = 5 seats
PD %= 3 seats

...leaving Sinn Féin with its 10-odd seats as kingmakers!

No matter what I do with my maths I see SF having a serious say in this election.

Even at 27% FG will be looking at about 47. I think most FG observers agree with that figure. FF will be around the 65 seat mark.

SF will be crucial in forming the next government

[smithfield1]

a bit simplistic, i think. By this calculation 30% would only yield 51 seats for fg -60 would be nearer the mark.

[MINISTER]

Interesting stuff Iarmhi. well done.

Whats the best link for stats do you know?
Thanks

M

[Iarmhi Gael]

Interesting stuff Iarmhi. well done.

Whats the best link for stats do you know?
Thanks

M

I pulled them from here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_ ... since_1923

[eurocrat]

So if you take this morning Indo Poll It translates into the following seats

FF 35% = 68 seats
FG 26% = 44 seats
Lab 13% = 22 seats
Green 5% = 5 seats
PD 3%= 3 seats

The Green would have to be very disappointed if they ended up with just 5 seats. Its been a funny old campaign for them.

[MINISTER]

Interesting stuff Iarmhi. well done.

Whats the best link for stats do you know?
Thanks

M

I pulled them from here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_ ... since_1923

many thanks.

Best...
M