A FF/SF/GP Government

[qtman]

If you divvy up the seats as follows, which everyone will have to admit is a likely outcome:

FF 67
FG 48
Lab 21
PD 3
GP 8
SF 8
Oth 11

I can see only 3 options:

FF/Lab
FF/SF/GP
A 2nd General Election

Which is more likely:

FF/Lab or FF/SF/GP?

[brian99]

why a second general electrion if everyone voted the same again we would still have the problem you say we could have please discuss

[Pidge]

Or you could have FG/Lab/GP and a few indos.

[teaspach]

On the figures it makes sense but it ignores the momentum factor. This would be a disaster for Fianna Fail, nobody would want to be seen to prop them up and certainly neither the Greens or Labour would want to touch them. On your figures Fg/Lab/Gn have 77 + assume Michael Lowry. That would mean they would need 6 of the independents to have a majority....I can see Joe Higgins doing a deal...then they need 4...at this stage it gets tricky but it depends on which independents are elected and what their priorities are...turkeys dont vote for and early xmas...maybe, maybe a hospital here, a building programme there, a sports centre of excellence etc but it getting very close.

By the way I think you are 2 short of Fg and 1 short on Labour and there may be no Pds at all otherwise I thing your very close.

[gaelach]

Or you could have FG/Lab/GP and a few indos.

Yeah...that would last a grand total of about 2 Months....

[Blue Tide]

Jez six indos is way too unstable.

[gaelach]

Jez six indos is way too unstable.

3 Partys is bad enough...but when you throw in another 6 Indos...it's a big feckin mess.

[CJH]

What about FF/GP/PD?

Or FG/Lab/PD/GP?

I find it hard to believe that, if necessary, Lab and/or the GP would refuse to do business with the PDs

[baldur0300]

I'd agree with CJH that either of those options would be a possibility. If they were that close I think the rainbow would form with FG/Lab/GP/PD/IND and that would suit FF down to the ground. A year tops maybe 2 if they managed to get along just out of hatred of Fianna Fail

[The Earl of Desmond]

It will never happen - the 1992 vote for Labour was so high on the understand that there would be a FG/Lab government but instead Lab went in with FF and the people who had voted for LAb in 92 to get Ff out made sure they didn't vote for LAb in 97 despite the government being a good one and FG gaining.

If the GP party put FF back into government then all the people who are voting for GP now on the understanding that it will be a FG/LAb/GP government will make sure they don't make the same mistake twice.

Lab has said clearly it wants FF out of government and leaving aside all the word games that is the clear message being sent - vote LAb and you'll get FG/LAb and maybe the GP and given all 3 parties ratings are strong it seems people are happy with that outcome and are making their decision to vote FG knowing it will go into office with Lab/GP and Lab voters know they'll join with FG/GP and the GReens with FG/Lab.

So GP putting FF and SF into power would end the GP dead in the water come the next election.