Polling expert says FF-PD "very unlikely to be returned

[Insider2007]

According to Damian Loscher, Managing Director,

"Although Fianna Fáil has reversed the downward trend of recent polls, the party will be concerned that its first preference votes remains some way adrift of the 42 per cent achieved in 2002. With the PDs on just 2%, it appears very unlikely that the current government will be returned."


http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/ire...742776741.html

[Duine Eile]

Not sure you would need to be a polling expert to predict that!!

[rover]

thats hardly a deduction of einstein proportions, in fairness......

[FutureTaoiseach]

Red C will hopefully tell a different story - after all MRBI tends to be a good poll for FG with readjustments. It is clear FG has peaked too soon and they should be very worried indeed if even TNS-MRBI is docking them 3 points. FF seems to be recovering.

[Insider2007]

Red C will hopefully tell a different story - after all MRBI tends to be a good poll for FG with readjustments. It is clear FG has peaked too soon and they should be very worried indeed if even TNS-MRBI is docking them 3 points. FF seems to be recovering.

You really don't get out much, do you? Nor know anything about polls. Any chance that sometime before election day you might actually learn something about the topic of polls before commenting on them?

[eurocrat]

Good God!! I never realized that was the case. What next? FG/LAB will probably need the support of the Greens? This it too much for me to handle...

[pfkf]

Red C will hopefully tell a different story - after all MRBI tends to be a good poll for FG with readjustments. It is clear FG has peaked too soon and they should be very worried indeed if even TNS-MRBI is docking them 3 points. FF seems to be recovering.

The same must be true about the PD's also, they must have peaked at 3% and their support dropped by 33% down by 1 point to 2%. FG will be in power in 2 weeks time and Enda will be Taoiseach, Ahern is finished and so is Mcdowell

[Rebelman]

According to Damian Loscher, Managing Director,

"Although Fianna Fáil has reversed the downward trend of recent polls, the party will be concerned that its first preference votes remains some way adrift of the 42 per cent achieved in 2002. With the PDs on just 2%, it appears very unlikely that the current government will be returned."

Easy to see why this man rose to the top of his profession. As has been said before though the current government does not have to be returned for FF to remain in power. FF labour may be the only real choice of goverment if we are to avoid an early return to the polls. Labour would agree to it on the basis of getting into power and keeping the shinners out.

[Insider2007]

Good God!! I never realized that was the case. What next? FG/LAB will probably need the support of the Greens? This it too much for me to handle...

The difference is that this is a professional pollster. They don't use words like "highly unlikely". It isn't a comment by political gossipers here or spin-meisters. It is a comment by a professional. It is as far as I can say the first time a pollster has stated in such unambiguous terms that a government seen (by many in the media) as cruising to re-election is in effect dead in the water.

With Labour and the Greens determined to bring about a change in government, and both parties' leaders saying they would resign rather than recommend a coalition with FF, it looks like Bertie needs to start lovebombing Gerry quickly. Bertie is running out of options, especially as on today's poll FF is in danger of having the third worst election result in its history and on target for 63-64 seats.

[The Trinity Politick]

I don't think even the PDs at this stage think that FF-PD is a runner. Be honest folks.