Polling expert says FF-PD "very unlikely to be returned

[SPN]

As even the nemesis of the PDs, Vincent Browne, admitted last night on the radio, polls are only correct to within a certain percentage, and as such with the PDs in particular, it is impossible to tell how they are doing.

Have you spoken to anyone who is canvassing for the PDs?

Have you spoken to anyone who WAS canvassing for the PDs, but gave up because of the abuse they were getting from the proles?


There is no doubt about how the PDs are doing, but it remains to be seen if any of the PD TDs have a core vote that will save them - but I doubt it.

There are at least two PDs making overtures to FG - "give us your transfers and we will defect on the 1st of June". One of them is being taken seriously (and it isn't McDowell).

[The Analyser]

As even the nemesis of the PDs, Vincent Browne, admitted last night on the radio, polls are only correct to within a certain percentage, and as such with the PDs in particular, it is impossible to tell how they are doing.

Have you spoken to anyone who is canvassing for the PDs?

Have you spoken to anyone who WAS canvassing for the PDs, but gave up because of the abuse they were getting from the proles?

There is no doubt about how the PDs are doing, but it remains to be seen if any of the PD TDs have a core vote that will save them - but I doubt it.

There are at least two PDs making overtures to FG - "give us your transfers and we will defect on the 1st of June". One of them iseing taken seriously (and it isn't McDowell).

Parlon's people are canvassing in Laois Offaly on the basis that if he gets elected he will vote for Enda Kenny as taoiseach. PD candidates all over are approaching other parties to make arrangements to jump ship, the majority to FG. Liz O'Donnell tonight on radio said that the PDs could get "zero per cent". Poor FT. He is going to be partyless in 2 weeks time.

Any of the parties out there want him:

One spin doctor, with a tendency to be in denial. Only own owner. Strong on opinions, but not strong on maths. Might be useful in a future campaign as a spin doctor. Answers to the name FutureTaoiseach. Available for spin doctoring from 25 May.

[hiding behind a poster]

One spin doctor, with a tendency to be in denial. Only own owner. Strong on opinions, but not strong on maths. Might be useful in a future campaign as a spin doctor. Answers to the name FutureTaoiseach. Available for spin doctoring from 25 May.

You forgot "high mileage - from going round and round in circles but never getting anywhere".

[FutureTaoiseach]

What kind of crap is that, FT? Firstly, how would you explain the fact that FG went up by 5% in MRBI, and 4% in RedC, within a few days of each other? In other words, what caused two polling companies to record a substantial increase in the FG vote, at almost exactly the same time? Was it what you claim to be "dodgy adjustments", or was it that far more people said they'd vote FG? Answer, please. Secondly, how would you suggest undecideds should be apportioned? Thirdly, how do MRBI apportion undecideds? Please explain, as I don't think you know.

I prefer Red C's methodology of apportioning undecideds, including assign 50% of them to how they voted in the previous GE.

[The Analyser]

What kind of crap is that, FT? Firstly, how would you explain the fact that FG went up by 5% in MRBI, and 4% in RedC, within a few days of each other? In other words, what caused two polling companies to record a substantial increase in the FG vote, at almost exactly the same time? Was it what you claim to be "dodgy adjustments", or was it that far more people said they'd vote FG? Answer, please. Secondly, how would you suggest undecideds should be apportioned? Thirdly, how do MRBI apportion undecideds? Please explain, as I don't think you know.

I prefer Red C's methodology of apportioning undecideds, including assign 50% of them to how they voted in the previous GE.

The Ballad of ex-Future Taoiseach

There once was naive PD
Who said 'now just wait till you see'
MRBI's methodology
is a load of codology
We will have Colm O'Gorman TD

But alack for it was not to be.
Neither Colm, nor anybody.
Poor Mad Mick McDowell
was left as a fool
crying 'why is it no-one likes me?'

The message from all was quite plain
McDowell was just never quite sane
but verbally erratic
and intellectually sporadic
as his party was flushed down the drain.

[The Trinity Politick]

What kind of crap is that, FT? Firstly, how would you explain the fact that FG went up by 5% in MRBI, and 4% in RedC, within a few days of each other? In other words, what caused two polling companies to record a substantial increase in the FG vote, at almost exactly the same time? Was it what you claim to be "dodgy adjustments", or was it that far more people said they'd vote FG? Answer, please. Secondly, how would you suggest undecideds should be apportioned? Thirdly, how do MRBI apportion undecideds? Please explain, as I don't think you know.

I prefer Red C's methodology of apportioning undecideds, including assign 50% of them to how they voted in the previous GE.

The Ballad of ex-Future Taoiseach

There once was naive PD
Who said 'now just wait till you see'
MRBI's methodology
is a load of codology
We will have Colm O'Gorman TD

But alack for it was not to be.
Neither Colm, nor anybody.
Poor Mad Mick McDowell
was left as a fool
crying 'why is it no-one likes me?'

The message from all was quite plain
McDowell was just never quite sane
but verbally erratic
and intellectually sporadic
as his party was flushed down the drain.

*applauds*

:P

[hiding behind a poster]

What kind of crap is that, FT? Firstly, how would you explain the fact that FG went up by 5% in MRBI, and 4% in RedC, within a few days of each other? In other words, what caused two polling companies to record a substantial increase in the FG vote, at almost exactly the same time? Was it what you claim to be "dodgy adjustments", or was it that far more people said they'd vote FG? Answer, please. Secondly, how would you suggest undecideds should be apportioned? Thirdly, how do MRBI apportion undecideds? Please explain, as I don't think you know.

I prefer Red C's methodology of apportioning undecideds, including assign 50% of them to how they voted in the previous GE.

Why? Why 50%? How about whether they voted at all? How about if they voted last time but aren't likely to vote this time? How about if they are likely to vote this time but didn't vote last time? How about if they're ABC1's who are more likely to vote, and voted last time? How about if they're ABC1's who didn't vote last time? How about if they're young? How about if they're old? How about if they're urban? How about if they're rural? How about if FF are strong in their constituency? How about if FG are strong in their constituency? How about if they voted FF last time, but fit the profile of the typical FG voter? Or vice versa? How about if they're undecided, but satisfied with Ahern's leadership of FF? How about if they voted FF last time, but feel Ahern has misled the public, and aren't satisfied with the government's performance? How about if they voted FG last time, but don't like Kenny? How about if they didn't vote FG last time, but do like Kenny?

I can go on, if you like. But no, complicated and fire-tested methods of fitting an undecided voter into the national sample don't work. Its easier to just pluck a figure out of the air, a la Seamus Brennan, and arbitrarily claim "this is the one".

(But just to humour FutureTaoiseach, here's a thing - RedC assign 50% of the undecideds according to how they voted at the last election. Now an undecided voter at any election is likely to have no core party loyalty, and is thus "undecided" approaching EVERY election. And one thing that all analysts agree on is that in the closing days of 2002, very few undecideds plumped for FG - because they were unelectable, and seen as irrelevant to the formation of the next government. So there was no reason for an undecided to plump for FG back then. Ergo its plausible for very few of the current undecideds to have voted for FG at the last election, and hence RedC's methodology will find very few FG votes among the undecided voters. Of course the reality on the ground is very different this time - as undecideds, who tend to be instinctively anti-government, are now likely to break towards the main opposition party, which is now seen as a credible challenger to the outgoing government. And the current, ridiculously simplistic methodology used by RedC, will not pick up this trend - and thus will almost definitely underestimate FG again - just like they did in 2004.)

Alternatively, FT could just knolck on a few doors - and he'd find out all he needs to know about which pollsters are getting it right.