Exclusive: RedC Poll for PaddyPower shows Gilmore favorite among polled for Taoiseach

[David Cochrane]

A RedC Poll for PaddyPower seen exclusively by Politics.ie shows that 45% would favour Eamon Gilmore for Taoiseach despite a recent poll (also conducted by RedC for the Sunday Business Post) showing Labour lose 4 points. The Labour leader is twice as popular as Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny, who has the support of 24% of those polled. Just 11% of those polled would favour Brian Cowen to remain as Taoiseach.

Amongst Fine Gael supporters, just half of those polled who said the supported Fine Gael said they would prefer Kenny for Taoiseach. 34% of Fine Gael supporters polled would prefer Gilmore as Taoiseach. Less than half of those who expressed support for Fianna Fail said they would support Cowen as Taoiseach.

Putting party support aside, which of these current leaders do you 
believe would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland?

Eamon Gilmore  45%
Enda Kenny     24%
Brian Cowen    11%
None of these  12%
Don't know      8%

Kenny gets quite high levels of support among the youngest 18-34 year old age groups, but does poorly among key 35-54 year olds. The FG leader's support is also very weak in Munster, and even in Connaught/Ulster it remains depressed.

Putting party support aside, which of these current leaders do you 
believe would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland?

               1st     2nd
               Pref    Pref    Total

Eamon Gilmore  45%     23%     68%
Enda Kenny     24%     33%     57%
Brian Cowen    11%     14%     25%
None of these  12%     31%
Don't know      8%

RedC interviewed a random sample of 1008 adults aged 18+ for PaddyPower by telephone between the 13th & 15th December 2010 using Random Digit Dial.

[spotty]

This poll is clearly invalid, since FutureTaoiseach wasn't included in it. 120% of people want FutureTaoiseach to run the country. For giggles.

[Stating the Obvious]

Eh, why did Paddy Power waste their money polling an issue which has been consistently polled for the last 18 months by both RedC and the Irish Times? This poll shows exactly the same results of all previous surveys.

What next: "POLL SHOCK: Paddy Power poll shows that people, really REALLY don't like Brian Cowen"

But again it begs the question: If people say they want Gilmore to be Taoiseach, then why aren't they willing to vote for it?

[Murph]

Is it Paddy Power or Red C that doesnt do Gerry Adams -is it because he was ahead of Enda and Cowen in the last one?

[Harmonica]

Eh, why did Paddy Power waste their money polling an issue which has been consistently polled for the last 18 months by both RedC and the Irish Times?

Publicity for their political bets.

If Gilmore wants to be Taoiseach he needs to lead FG.

[commonman]

why all these polls just give us the GE .like a lot of people i am sick of polls, FF will get what comeing to them.

[Grumpy Jack]

Are these polls not totally irrelevant given the people do not vote to elect the Taioseach?

If 45% of people want Gilmore as Taoiseach then that 45% should vote Labour - ain't gonna happen any other way.

[turdsl]

Why would Paddy Power bother with a poll the whole country knows the answer. too. It adds no nothing to the game because Kenny will be Toiseach.

[Bobert]

Why do young people like the oldest leader?

[Stating the Obvious]

Why do young people like the oldest leader?

Funny you should ask that. I had a conversation with work colleagues on this subject a few months ago during the Fine Gael heave (on the relative age of senior politicians) and they all seemed to think that Kenny was a lot younger than Richard Bruton, and younger than both Cowen and Gilmore.

Kenny does look very young, relative to other politicians of his generation, and I think he has successfully fooled the public on this one