Sunday Business Post Red C Poll 6/5/07

[The Analyser]

Apparantly the FF up 2% is correct so I presume Cork Hurler is correct with the rest. Ursala Halligan mentioned it TV3 news at 5.30. Unless that is she is relying on Cork Hurler's info as well!

FF Up 2% Fact.

That is to be expected. When a party is under attack supporters usually rally to that party. So it could have been very odd indeed if FF had not gone up. But it is within the margin of error. So the change is insignificant for all the parties.

37% is however the lowest FF starting number for FF since 1926. It would mean a loss of 15 seats. FF this time in the last election was 48%, 11% higher. So it shows the scale of the collapse faced by FF. Historically FF usually loses support. So if FF is starting at 37%, they face major problems.

For FF, a key figure is 35-36%. If it slips to there, a high number of seats will tumble. That mathematically is a crucial tipping number for a large number of seats. In contrast, FG at 26% is at its crucial tipping number. It usually rises in polls during elections.

So FF is starting 11% below last time, with the likelihood over the trajectory of polls to fall. FG are 8% ahead of where they started last time, and are at their crucial tipping point. Going by past trajectory, FG is likely to rise more.

Tactically, FF is starting way off where it needs to be to have a credible chance of re-election. FG is starting off at an ideal number. FG has never failed to get into government having got 26% of the vote.

[SEANSOUTH]

[quote="The Analyser"][quote="jayblue"]any polls tomorrow are now notOn current numbers, given their loss of PD transfers once both parties divorce, and Labour's marriage now to someone else, FF would need to increase their support by 10% to have any chance of a majority. They nearly got one in 2002 because of the availability of transfers, but political realignments since will close off those. In addition, while the crisis will see FF going up, as FFers who had drifted away rally to the party flag, the loss of transfers through a greater FF versus the rest feeling will hit them hard. Remember back in the 1990 presidential election, even though the tape controversy brought a rally to Lenihan, the loss was thanks to the fact that he became transfer-repulsive, with the 'anyone but FF' voters all transferring among themselves, allowing Robinson to win on transfers.

quote]

" I knew Mary Robinson, Mary Robinson was a friend of mine, Enda Kenny is no Mary Robinson"

[vid]

actually fine gael got 27.9% in 1997
at last some good news for ff but what more dirt will the media uncover before election day.

[grassroots]

But, again, where are the extra 25 TDs coming from?

Seeing ask you ask
Louth FGfrom FF
Meath lab extra seat
Laois Offaly Fg from PD/FF
Carlow/Kilkenny FG/Green from FF
Wicklow Green from Indo
Kildare S FG from FF
Dublin N FG from FF
Dublin NE FG from FF
Dublin NC Lab from FF
Dublin S FG from PD
dublin SE FG from FF/PD
Dublin SW FG from FF
Dublin SC Lab/Green from FF
Dun Laoighaire FG from FF/PD
Dublin MW Lab extra seat
Mayo FG from Indo
Roscommon/Leitrim FG from FF
Sligo Leitrim Fg from FF
Galway E FG from Indo
Galway W Green from PD
Limerick E Fg from FF
Cork SW FG from FF
Cork SC FG from FF
Tipp N FG from FF
Cork E FG from FF
Kerry S FG from indo
Cavan monaghan FG from Indo

offsetting this will be loss of Donegal SW to Shinners

[Johnny]

" I knew Mary Robinson, Mary Robinson was a friend of mine, Enda Kenny is no Mary Robinson"

I've said it before and I'll say it again. There's still the guts of three weeks left to run, and that's a heck of a long run in until polling day. Rabbitte and Kenny are strutting around the place like they've already won the election, talking about coalition ministers receiving seals of office in the Park etc.

A little maxim I was taught by a very wise man some years ago goes, "Pride always comes before the fall." The Blueshirts would do well to remember that.

Oh, and here's another one: "Never, ever write off Fianna Fáil." :wink:

[rockofcashel]

Presuming they don't get an unbelievably bad seat bonus 46% will be enough to put FG/Lab/Grn in government so SF should be thankfully irrelevant.

Do you know what.. but all this talk about seat bonuses is a pain in the backside most of the time.

The real seat bonuses came back in the 80's, when basically we had a 2 and 1/2 party system

Some Alternative supporters seem to think, that the Alternative will transfer strongly between each other nationwide, when I have to admit, I can't see it happening.

I sat at an IFA meeting the other night, where at least 75% of the attendees would be strong FG supporters, and the person who got it in the neck the most, was Phil Prendergast of the Labour Party, because of Ruairi Quinns proposal to allow hill-walkers walk all over their land. I would imagine, that I would be as likely to get as many transfers from that crowd (albeit few enough, as Labour will)

The opposite is true in Dublin. Labour people don't really get turned on by the idea of helping "The Farmers Party".

I would imagine, that if there is even an average 60% cross party transfer rate between FG/Lab and the Greens, that is as much as they can get.

SF on the other hand, will hold ten or so seats in 3 weeks time.

I imagine, that FG/Lab/Grns will be lucky to get 78 seats between them... now please tell me, what 5 independents could they rely on for the other 5

And that is just to scrape a majority. One bye-election, one scandal, one falling out over a policy matter, and we're all back to the polls.

[FutureTaoiseach]

37% is however the lowest FF starting number for FF since 1926. It would mean a loss of 15 seats. FF this time in the last election was 48%, 11% higher. So it shows the scale of the collapse faced by FF. Historically FF usually loses support. So if FF is starting at 37%, they face major problems.

Here we go again - bogus and oversimplistic comparisons of polls with different methodologies. Red C's national polls are telephone-polls. Name me one telephone-poll in 2002 that had FF on 48% and you're comparison might have some validity. ICM was the only telephone-poll for the General Election last time and it never had FF anywhere near 48%. The face-to-face polls did. Wake up.

Carlow/Kilkenny FG/Green from FF

Every poll without exception says that FF will hold all its seats in Carlow-Kilkenny. Not a single local poll says otherwise. They also show that the Green gain here will be at Labour's expense.

[Gerrry]

But, again, where are the extra 25 TDs coming from?

Seeing ask you ask
Louth FGfrom FF
Meath lab extra seat
Laois Offaly Fg from PD/FF
Carlow/Kilkenny FG/Green from FF
Wicklow Green from Indo
Kildare S FG from FF
Dublin N FG from FF
Dublin NE FG from FF
Dublin NC Lab from FF
Dublin S FG from PD
dublin SE FG from FF/PD
Dublin SW FG from FF
Dublin SC Lab/Green from FF
Dun Laoighaire FG from FF/PD
Dublin MW Lab extra seat
Mayo FG from Indo
Roscommon/Leitrim FG from FF
Sligo Leitrim Fg from FF
Galway E FG from Indo
Galway W Green from PD
Limerick E Fg from FF
Cork SW FG from FF
Cork SC FG from FF
Tipp N FG from FF
Cork E FG from FF
Kerry S FG from indo
Cavan monaghan FG from Indo

offsetting this will be loss of Donegal SW to Shinners

No 2 seats for FG in Sligo/North Leitrim

[livingstone]

It seems to me that Sinn Fein seem quite eager for the alternative to stay steady and not make huge gains...largely because if they are to get into govt, it will be with FF and no one else...so major FF losses, below around 70, means SF are on the opposition benches again.

As for independents - Catherine Murphy, Lowry, Tony Gregory, Finian McGrath would all be indos who would probably tend towards the rainbow and could be negotiated with. That said, I don't believe that they will be needed, as I would see FG/Lab/Gr getting the majority, but there will be as many pro-rainbow as FF gene-pool indo's in the next Dail.

[justified]

Some Alternative supporters seem to think, that the Alternative will transfer strongly between each other nationwide, when I have to admit, I can't see it happening.

at last a man on the streets with enough cop-on to know the truth...
the opposition is very fragmented compared to years ago and this may not translate into seats

not sure about your ten seats though but best of luck anyway.
bottom line its all to play no real inroads being made by the alternative which at this stage ONLY consists of FG/LAB