Sunday Business Post Red C Poll 6/5/07

[grassroots]

FF 37 +2
FG 26 - 1
Lab 12 +1
PD 2
Gr 8
SF 8

As i have to return to the canvass I will leave it to other to interpret the results. Suffice to say that it confirms what I have been thinking for the last few days the election in the country is a lot different from the one in the media.

Poll looks t o be overtaken by events. PDs on the cusp of leaving Govt. New revelations about Bertie coming in SIndo tomorrow and complete melt down in FF campaign.

[CJH]

FF 37 +2
FG 26 - 1
Lab 12 +1
PD 2
Gr 8
SF 8

As i have to return to the canvass I will leave it to other to interpret the results. Suffice to say that it confirms what I have been thinking for the last few days the election in the country is a lot different from the one in the media.

Poll looks t o be overtaken by events. PDs on the cusp of leaving Govt. New revelations about Bertie coming in SIndo tomorrow and complete melt down in FF campaign.

It's not the Candyman you know. Just cos you keeping saying it, it doesn't mean it's going to happen

[Fr. Hank Tree]

If the PDs leave government, and FG/Lab/Greens rule them out, the PDs will be f*cked

[FutureTaoiseach]

Grassroots unless the allegations are really serious i.e. illegal, I think the evidence suggests that Bertiegate II may well backfire on the Opposition. We've had saturation coverage of this story already last Autumn. I agree with you on one level tho - our leaving govt could have an unpredictable affect on our standing.

If the PDs leave government, and FG/Lab/Greens rule them out, the PDs will be f*cked

Not necessarily - SF is doing okay despite everyone ruling them out.

On 37% FF would lose circa 15 seats. It would be the lowest FF starting total in an election since 1926. The equivalent poll totals five years ago was 48%.

This old chestnut again. Just because you say it doesn't make it true. You are forgetting that the Republic is not one giant constituency - it is 43 separate ones - 3-seaters, 4-seaters and 5-seaters. It's what happens at this level that matters in terms of winning/losing seats. The effect of a swing to FG in a constituency can be neutralised by the party splitting the vote between 2 many candidates. In a 3-seater, incumbents are very hard to oust - especially when the Opposition to FF are so fragmented between 4 - or maybe after today - 5 (or 6 if the Socialist Party is included) - different parties. Hence the recent local polls showing a swing to FG but the failure to do what really matters i.e. actually take more seats. You need to read up on our electoral-system dear.

Hopefully this will help. In 1997, when FG last had 55 seats, they got them in many cases by running fewer candidates in key constituencies than they are running in 2007. Examples:

Carlow-Kilkenny:
1997: 2 candidates - 2 FG TDs elected
2007: 3 candidates - unlikely to improve on 1.

Dublin South:
1997: 2 candidates - 2 FG TDs elected
2007: 3 candidates

Dún Laoghaire:
1997: 2 candidates - 2 FG TDs elected
2002: 3 candidates - 0 FG TDs elected
2007: 3 candidates -

[sydney07]

I agree with FutureTaoiseach look at Cork South Central FG vote up to 26% yet they are not going to get the 2nd seat because they have 3 candidates madness

[beardyboy]

Grassroots unless the allegations are really serious i.e. illegal, I think the evidence suggests that Bertiegate II may well backfire on the Opposition. We've had saturation coverage of this story already last Autumn. I agree with you on one level tho - our leaving govt could have an unpredictable affect on our standing.

If the PDs leave government, and FG/Lab/Greens rule them out, the PDs will be f*cked

Not necessarily - SF is doing okay despite everyone ruling them out.

[quote:3nqih35i]On 37% FF would lose circa 15 seats. It would be the lowest FF starting total in an election since 1926. The equivalent poll totals five years ago was 48%.

This old chestnut again. Just because you say it doesn't make it true. You are forgetting that the Republic is not one giant constituency - it is 43 separate ones - 3-seaters, 4-seaters and 5-seaters. It's what happens at this level that matters in terms of winning/losing seats. The effect of a swing to FG in a constituency can be neutralised by the party splitting the vote between 2 many candidates. In a 3-seater, incumbents are very hard to oust - especially when the Opposition to FF are so fragmented between 4 - or maybe after today - 5 (or 6 if the Socialist Party is included) - different parties. Hence the recent local polls showing a swing to FG but the failure to do what really matters i.e. actually take more seats. You need to read up on our electoral-system dear.[/quote:3nqih35i]

You have a very good argument - but if the PD party gets ostracised by the others in the next Dail are they not rendered obsolete? Is the next election going to be more difficult. Remember they have been able to use their position to maintain a public profile way above the level that their vote would warrant. If sidelined in the next Dail this prominence will drop and so I would argue their votes.

The strategists in the other parties must be thinking this

[The Analyser]

This old chestnut again. Just because you say it doesn't make it true. You are forgetting that the Republic is not one giant constituency - it is 43 separate ones - 3-seaters, 4-seaters and 5-seaters. It's what happens at this level that matters in terms of winning/losing seats. The effect of a swing to FG in a constituency can be neutralised by the party splitting the vote between 2 many candidates. In a 3-seater, incumbents are very hard to oust - especially when the Opposition to FF are so fragmented between 4 - or maybe after today - 5 (or 6 if the Socialist Party is included) - different parties. Hence the recent local polls showing a swing to FG but the failure to do what really matters i.e. actually take more seats. You need to read up on our electoral-system dear.

Your inability to understand the basics of Irish electoral politics, history and mathematics, never ceases to amaze. Continue in your dillusions if you wish. Your illinformed ramblings are as irrelevant as your party.

[FutureTaoiseach]

If sidelined in the next Dail this prominence will drop and so I would argue their votes.

I think it would be a double-edged sword. That would be a risk but on the other hand it could be a blessing in disguise if it allowed us freer rein than at present to carve out a larger "liberal" niche in Irish politics - if necessary with a new leader if the current one doesn't perform adequately in the election (tho I'm a fan). Also remember that the problem as far as the PDs were concerned in 1992 was Albert Reynolds and the row with O'Malley. Bertie is unlikely to continue to lead FF if it ends up in Opposition. As such that could remove a key obstacle to an eventual new alliance with FF in advance of the 2012 GE. Even if it didn't, if we get the votes and the seats on the basis of our platform the other parties will have to reckon with us whether they like it or not. Personally I would like to see the party take more demonstrative "liberal" positions on economic matters and also social-matters (other than immigration). Privatisation and tax-cuts and reducing the burden of red-tape on Irish business should be part of this, but so too should the separation of church-and-state e.g. in education, gay-marriage etc. Combine that with a greater emphasis on protecting Irish sovereignty from EU integration, and I think you could have a highly attractive cocktail - especially for younger voters who are more open to non-civil war politics.

[jayblue]

any polls tomorrow are now not worth the print today, if the pd's pull out of government this is going to have a knock effect and the election will be wide open, my only fear is that knowing how stupid the irish public are, they could end up feeling sorry for Bertie and give him a majority

[Decko]

any polls tomorrow are now not worth the print today, if the pd's pull out of government this is going to have a knock effect and the election will be wide open, my only fear is that knowing how stupid the irish public are, they could end up feeling sorry for Bertie and give him a majority

you said it - my fear as well