Sunday Business Post Red C Poll 6/5/07

[Best of the West]

But, again, where are the extra 25 TDs coming from?

Seeing ask you ask
Louth FGfrom FF
Meath lab extra seat
Laois Offaly Fg from PD/FF
Carlow/Kilkenny FG/Green from FF
Wicklow Green from Indo
Kildare S FG from FF
Dublin N FG from FF
Dublin NE FG from FF
Dublin NC Lab from FF
Dublin S FG from PD
dublin SE FG from FF/PD
Dublin SW FG from FF
Dublin SC Lab/Green from FF
Dun Laoighaire FG from FF/PD
Dublin MW Lab extra seat
Mayo FG from Indo
Roscommon/Leitrim FG from FF
Sligo Leitrim Fg from FFGalway E FG from Indo
Galway W Green from PD
Limerick E Fg from FF
Cork SW FG from FF
Cork SC FG from FF
Tipp N FG from FF
Cork E FG from FF
Kerry S FG from indo
Cavan monaghan FG from Indo

offsetting this will be loss of Donegal SW to Shinners

The last seat in Sligo/North Leitrim will be contested between Scanlon (FF) and MacManus (SF)

[Norfolk Enchants]

FF 37 +2
FG 26 - 1
Lab 12 +1
PD 2
Gr 8
SF 8

As i have to return to the canvass I will leave it to other to interpret the results. Suffice to say that it confirms what I have been thinking for the last few days the election in the country is a lot different from the one in the media.

Ah, so this poll is right but the previous one is wrong. Thanks for confirming that Cork Hurler

[politic]

Don't know if I've posted on here before. I don't agree that the polls published this weekend are irrelevant after the weekend's PD fiasco. That was a last throw of the dice for them, hoping the old adage of "Any publicity is good publicity" is true and that they might by a miracle hold onto more than 3 seats!

I don't see this affecting the Fianna Fail vote more than the original "allegations" which have only slightly dented their vote, if at all.

There's no doubt that this election is going to be good for Fine Gael, bad for Fianna Fail, pretty much status quo (slight gain I suppose) for Labour. People are also focusing heavily on the Green sentiment that's taking over across the world. Of course they are going to gain a number of seats but it's Sinn Fein who have been tipping away in the National Scheme of things, but focusing hard locally. Their well-oiled political machine from Northern elections is starting to become more evident in their contesting of Southern elections and they look like going from 5 representatives to 9/10, which will be the biggest percentae increase in terms of seats gained, for the second election in a row.

With the PD vote effectively gone, they will be irrelevant. And anyone with a historical look at Irish politics must see that Fianna Fail's vote won't disintegrate enough to give Fine Gael/Labour/Greens a majority over Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein. Maybe the greens might end up in there with FF/SF, as they haven't committed themselves to any alliance.


But, all this talk could become completely irrelevant, and one week after the election we may see Pat Rabbitte resigning, Ruairi Quinn or Liz McManus in as Tanaiste in a FF/Labour coalition that is guaranteed a majority!

[FutureTaoiseach]

Considering that the PD seat-tally in 1997 (4 seats) was actually 2.7% of the Dail (on 4.7% of the vote) - while the same vote got us 10 seats in 1992, while a decline to 4% doubled our seats, it just goes to show that even if we did get 2%, you never know how many seats we'd get. Personally I expect 5/6 seats. Despite the continuing penchant of our critics for chiselling away with our obituary (hands must be knackered now after 20 yrs) at every election, even they can't accurately predict how we will do.

[politic]

That is a valid point but you've taken such a hammering in the last few months, and the campaign doesn't seem to be kind to you, specially with someone as unlikeable as McDowell leading now, compared to the somewhat better Harney.
You should know you're in big trouble when a PD candidate, even an O'Malley, can't take a seat in Limerick!
Could be seriously looking at 3 seats i think.