Can anyone desrcibe how a margin of error in polling is worked out?
You always see it when a poll is published but I was just wondering how they work it out?
Can anyone desrcibe how a margin of error in polling is worked out?
You always see it when a poll is published but I was just wondering how they work it out?
It is based on sample size. The bigger the sample size the less the margin of error. Nothing to do with the polling company or question etc...
Margin of error - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
There are est. 150,000 Irish resident individual shareholders in BOI/AIB, plus spouses, plus family...maybe an average of 10,000 per constituency in total.
They receive no sympathetic comment during this election--quite the opposite. yet they have been injustly treated by political parties, official institutions, media, etc. (see some details at brianodoherty,ie)
Its a bit late now, of course, but they could have swung the elction
Thanks folks, v interesting.
just a statistical anomaly Bobby
The margin of error means that many polls are effectively meaningless when looked at in isolation.
However, if a MOE was +/-3%, and six consecutive polls showed you up 2% in each one, then the trend is something one can rely on.