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  1. #11
    davemcinerney davemcinerney is offline

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    Polls mean absolutely nothing in Ireland

    When people are asked in the street how they feel about a particular party or leader they may say one thing, but when they are in the privacy of the voting booth they usually do another.
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  2. #12
    MichealMcGrath MichealMcGrath is offline

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    Absolutely!
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  3. #13
    Winalot Winalot is offline

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    There is a variety of methods used by pollsters and some have track records which are better than others. It seems to be that RedC is the most reliable predictor.
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  4. #14
    MichealMcGrath MichealMcGrath is offline

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    What are you doing up at this hour of the morning, go to bed!
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  5. #15
    KatyM KatyM is offline

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    You need to take account of trends when you talk about margins of error. Remember that while you have a lorge margin of error when small numbers are polled - which is why constituency polls are so inaccurate, the higher the numbers polled the greater the accuracy. And you can aggregate date from a number of polls to get increased accuracy. If FG are 30% over a number of polls they are probably on 30% - not 33% or 27%. If polls show them on 27 followed by 30 followed by 33 they are going up but not necessarily by that figure. if the Greens are steady on 1% the pollsters are calling the last Green voter every time just because they happen to have located him - or is it her?
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  6. #16
    hammer hammer is offline
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    Fianna FAIL IMF Anglo haven`t yey even considered the fact that they will get no transfers.

    Everyone hates them
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  7. #17
    hammer hammer is offline
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    The only Green voters making up 1% of a sample of 200 are GO GO & his missus
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  8. #18
    Should I Try Should I Try is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by stripey cat View Post
    In most polls the margin of error is given as three per cent.

    Taking this into account, it's hard to see anything exciting happening in levels of party support this year.

    For example look at tomorrow's poll in the Irish Times:
    RT News: FG drops further behind Labour - poll

    I reality, this means that Labour can definitely be said to have risen, very slightly, in popularity, and that's all it means. The other parties may well have risen or fallen, but just as easily they may not have moved at all.

    Last Sunday the Business Post published the latest in a series of Red C polls, and gave us a graphic of the previous polls this year:


    If you exclude the first column, which shows support from the 2007 election, you can see that most parties aren't seeing much actual change in their support, once you take into account the margin of error.

    For instance, look at Fine Gael's support since March. They never get very far from around 33 per cent, once you realise that each poll could be out by a margin of three points. They are effectively stuck, as are most of the other parties. The only party showing any movement is Labour, and even that seems to have leveled off in the last few months.

    Why does the media get so excited about polls, when the numbers aren't changing that much at all?


    .
    Thanks for this!
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  9. #19
    Poster King Poster King is offline

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    Wanted to start a new thread but getting stopped by this "To create new threads in this forum your post count must be 100 or greater." So I'm going to have to post a load of waffle ASAP,

    Two Independents elected in a constituency? Has this ever happened before? It looks like it could happen in Galway West with Noel Grealish and Catherine Connolly. Ivan Yates also thinks so. Maybe someone could start a thread for me.
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  10. #20
    Liamog Liamog is offline

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    Helping Voters Understand how PR voting works - A public service podcast

    Folks,

    I'm a newbie here and just learning the posting ropes. I need your assistance
    As a act of public service, and in hope of a more effective Republic I am asking for your help in disseminating information, which I believe is vital to all voters. For example this evening I had a call from the president of DkIT Students Union who told me he had registered 300 hundred students this week for the Louth Constituency alone. Over all the IOTs and universities this would amount to at least 6,000 new voters who need to enage with politics to shape the future survival. And they simpy don't know or understand the voting process.

    Please note material below. The wonderful podcast by Seamus Bellew at Seamus Bellew explains the PR (proportional representation) System / DkITalk / Podcasts / About DkIT / Home - Dundalk Institute of Technology is a powerful learning resource to inform the electorate re the voting nuances. I believe that all voters students in the country should have it brought to their attention. It can help them use their vote most effectively. Having listened to the podcast, If you agree that it is of value please pass it on to any of your contacts. It would be good to distribute it to all registered voters in the country.
    Regards
    Liam Ó Gógáin



    Dear Sir/Madam
    Jason Harris (indo 7th Feb) makes a valid call for educating the electorate on the nuances of the vote counting PR system. When one considers in the last few elections how seats have been won and lost over a handful of votes the need to provide accessible answers to questions such as Mr. Harris raises is a public service necessity. As part of my work in creating Reusable learning objects in the Third level education system I was fortunate, after the 2007 general Election, to record a four part podcast with an election mechanics expert which explains the voting and count system in detail. This podcast is available at Seamus Bellew explains the PR (proportional representation) System / DkITalk / Podcasts / About DkIT / Home - Dundalk Institute of Technology
    as an open source public service resource freely available to all.
    Sincerely
    Liam Ó Gógáin
    Retired Lecturer DkIT
    1 Muirhevna
    Dublin Road
    Dundalk
    Mob :- 087 2543997
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