SBP POLL - FG 31, FF24, LAB 23, SF 10, GR 3, Oths 9

[Iarmhi Gael]

This is - all spinning aside - a fantastic poll for FF. We are in a clear second place, and only 7% behind a stagnant Fine Gael party.

As the Labour boomlet fades - and fade it surely will, once the media start scrutinising them in the heat of a campaign - those voters who are opposed to Tax increases (57%) will have to choose between FF and FG. As we know that FG's ceiling with Enda as leader is about 33%, many of them will have no other choice but to vote FF.

Add that to the fact that our candidates will be better known, better funded, and in many cases better liked than the party brand, and we'll be in a strong position. We will certainly be able to poll in the high 30s, and those of you writing off a historic fourth term for our party may yet be made look foolish.

come on spotty.... The FF poll is better then that. you should be encouraging Lenny to take control, snap election, wham bham, FF over all majority

[lebowskilite]

23% is a horrible climb-down for Labour. I await the IT/MRBI poll, with its new methodology, to bump us back up over Fianna Fail.

[TommyO'Brien]

Id tend to agree with most of ToB's screed above, simply cos no one in Labour thinks we're at 35%!

Despite that unadjusted in IMS was 29%, its 23% in SBP, in previous SBP it was 27%, so it seems we're somewhere around 23-26% in my opinion. There is a lot of volatility in the numbers for Labour but it certainly appears to be above 20% and in low 40's in Dublin. The high numbers are helping Labour to become more credible in areas where we are not very strong and thats great. As I've continued to say in every poll thread here if we get mid 20's% support in a GE I and many, many Labour supporters will be ecstatic.

FG seem to be reliably around 30% and FF in low 20's in every poll.

But if electorate is as volatile as it appears only an election will give us an insight into what is happening.

A fair analysis. I don't know anyone in Labour who believed the 35% number. Some were rather annoyed by it, believing that it raised expectations to ludicrously levels and risked making a very good election result in the 20s if a snap election occurred looking badly because the media would have expected a 30s result.

What is striking is how stable the totals seem to be becoming. FG seems to be perpetually in the low 30s, FF in the low to mid 20s, and Labour in the low 20s. SF still can't break 10. The Greens are somewhere in the region of 5%, give or take 1 or 2 per cent. It looks as though public opinion is almost locked into certain numbers.

For FF that would be a disaster. They desperately need to get to near 30 minimum to minimise damage.

[dotski_w_]

As I indicated in the thread on the other poll, the Lansdowne poll was highly questionable.

A couple of points need to be borne in mind in analysing a poll:

1. How credible is the pollster (ie what is their accuracy record)?

Of the two pollsters, Lansdowne has by far the poorest record. And it isn't just as against Red C. Longterm poll watchers know that Lansdowne has a notorious record in national polls. In past decades when it was used a lot by I think the Sunday Tribune and the Sunday Press, its polls were widely laughed at. Of the three pollsters at the time, the joke was that if MRBI said you were dead you climbed into the coffin, if IMS said you were dead you went to the doctor for a second opinion, and if Lansdowne said you were dead you burst out laughing. They had a reputation somewhat akin to Sunday Independent polls today - ie, no one believed them. Lansdowne has a good reputation in other forms of research, but political polling has always been a disaster area for them.

I must confess to never having heard that "joke" Tommy - one of yours i take it?

Like most pollsters, Millward Brown and Lansdowne has been up and down, but generally as good as anyone else. the RTE/Lansdowne exit poll in 2007 was one of the most accurate ever

The first preference results, with the Exit Poll figures in brackets, were as follows:

FF 41.6 (41.6)
FG 27.3 (26.3)
Lb 10.1 (9.9)
SF 6.9 (7.3)
GP 4.7 (4.8)
PD 2.7 (2.6)
Others 6.6 (7.5)

RT News: Election 2007: Exit poll proves near results

The last Millward Brown/IMS survey in that election had shown a swing to FF, and was within the margin of error with all parties in a RedC published the same day (although at the edges with the GP, who were 5% in the former and over-stated as 8% in the RedC

RTE News: Fianna Fail gain ground in opinion polls

Lansdowne (on their own) published the first poll of the campaign, which showed FF at a lower level than polling day, although everyone accepts that FF gained over the course of the campaign. Remarkably, all the other parties were within the margin of error of the final result.RT News: First election poll shows close race

I suspect that if the results of the last two polls were reversed, you'd be spinning a different line, Tommy....

2. Does the poll contain results that are GUBU (grotesque, unprecedented, bizarre and unbelievable)? The Lansdowne poll certainly did. In the real world, every reaction in a poll should have a cause. So to check its credibility you need to be able to spot a causal effect. A 16% increase in any one poll for anyone is beyond the bounds of possibility.

that's self-evidently untrue. I presume you mean that it isn't (in your mind) credible, which is entirely different. In 1992, LP more than doubling their vote was "not credible" to msot FGers I knew. They were wrong.

Public opinion by its nature is relatively stable - large chunks of the electorate are committed come what may to 'their' party or cause. So large scale percentile changes are rare. Mega scale percentile changes (and 16% would be on a mega scale) are effectively unheard of.

Ummm ... this is gibberish Tommy. Do you mean percentage changes? percentiles are entirely different. Someone who is in the top 1% of the population for numeracy is in the top percentile, it's not a measurement of a quantity or proportion, its basically a description of where something is in a population group. I take it that you've come across the word and think it sounds like a cleverer way of saying "percentage"?

In any event, the +16% wasn't over the summer break, they take their polls much less frequently than this. Compared to the most recent polls held before the break, it was 3-8% of an increase over the 3-4 months, depending on which polling company you're dissing this month.

[factual]

This is a great poll for Sinn Féin. Sinn Féin have now broken through into double figures - up 2% and now on 10%.This is consistent with Sinn Féin's strategy building up slow-release but sustainably. Organic growth, concentrated in specific areas at grass roots level, rather than the thin-spread growth that would be less sustainable. While FG drop votes, and start to experience the "gone tomorrow" part of their trajectory, SF has put down a firm and sustainable foundation stone.

[spotty]

This is a great poll for Sinn Féin. Sinn Féin have now broken through into double figures - up 2% and now on 10%.This is consistent with Sinn Féin's strategy building up slow-release but sustainably. Organic growth, concentrated in specific areas at grass roots level, rather than the thin-spread growth that would be less sustainable. While FG drop votes, and start to experience the "gone tomorrow" part of their trajectory, SF has put down a firm and sustainable foundation stone.

To be fair, this long term strategy of Sinn Fein's is a good one, and it is now the strategy of us in Fianna Fail, as well. Slow, sustainable, incremental growth. It seems to be working for both of us.

[dotski_w_]

What is striking is how stable the totals seem to be becoming. FG seems to be perpetually in the low 30s, FF in the low to mid 20s, and Labour in the low 20s. SF still can't break 10. The Greens are somewhere in the region of 5%, give or take 1 or 2 per cent. It looks as though public opinion is almost locked into certain numbers.

Stable? How are labour "stable" in the "low 20s", exactly? Only Red C have them as low as 23% (and had them 27% last time) and the two most recent polls for other sources had them at 32% (MRBI) and 35% (Lansdowne). Even if you want to dismiss MRBI as a result of their polling methodology, they were 29% in the unadjusted figures.

So basically they are stable at low 20s if (a) you only accept RedC as acceptable pollsters (co-incidentally the company that poll them lowest), and (b) take a sequence of 24-22-27-23 (an average of 24%) as "stable in the low 20s" .

[Baron von Biffo]

I must confess to never having heard that "joke" Tommy - one of yours i take it?

Like most pollsters, Millward Brown and Lansdowne has been up and down, but generally as good as anyone else. the RTE/Lansdowne exit poll in 2007 was one of the most accurate ever


RT News: Election 2007: Exit poll proves near results

The last Millward Brown/IMS survey in that election had shown a swing to FF, and was within the margin of error with all parties in a RedC published the same day (although at the edges with the GP, who were 5% in the former and over-stated as 8% in the RedC

RTE News: Fianna Fail gain ground in opinion polls

Lansdowne (on their own) published the first poll of the campaign, which showed FF at a lower level than polling day, although everyone accepts that FF gained over the course of the campaign. Remarkably, all the other parties were within the margin of error of the final result.RT News: First election poll shows close race

I suspect that if the results of the last two polls were reversed, you'd be spinning a different line, Tommy....

that's self-evidently untrue. I presume you mean that it isn't (in your mind) credible, which is entirely different. In 1992, LP more than doubling their vote was "not credible" to msot FGers I knew. They were wrong.

Ummm ... this is gibberish Tommy. Do you mean percentage changes? percentiles are entirely different. Someone who is in the top 1% of the population for numeracy is in the top percentile, it's not a measurement of a quantity or proportion, its basically a description of where something is in a population group. I take it that you've come across the word and think it sounds like a cleverer way of saying "percentage"?

In any event, the +16% wasn't over the summer break, they take their polls much less frequently than this. Compared to the most recent polls held before the break, it was 3-8% of an increase over the 3-4 months, depending on which polling company you're dissing this month.

Ouch!

Remind me to be nice to you in future.

[dotski_w_]

Ouch!

Remind me to be nice to you in future.

Ok.

be nice to me in future!

[Sierra]

Everyone its a Sunday BUSINESS Post poll so i doubt they toured the estates & dole queues.

Silly post. It is a Red C poll - believe it or not, there is sound methodology behind the poll.