Can Fine Gael break 30% in GE 2007 ?

[the-analyst2007]

The last time Fine Gael broke the 30% threshold was 1982 when the party received 38% of the vote.

With the latest Red C poll putting FG on 27% and the latest tnsMRBI poll putting the party at 31%, the question now is: Can Fine Gael break 30% in GE 2007 ?

Given the fragmentation of the vote, for Fine Gael to break 30%, Fianna Fail would need to go sub-35%. Given FF's disasterous 2004 election results which saw just that, the possibility for this is now reasonable.

A tangent to this is the inflection point at which both FF and FG would come out with roughly the same seat tallies.

Given that the latest tnsMRBI poll has FF/PD on only 37% coupled with the current level for Government popularity, there is a hardcore block of 55-60% of people who do not want FF returned to power.

Given our proportional representation system of voting, Fianna Fail on 35% and Fine Gael on 30% could mean both parties returning with the same number of seats.

[TradCat]

What are FGs top target seats?

[FLESHPRESSER]

Presumably most are in Dublin. MRBI core vote in Dublin: FF 29%, FG, 19, SF 10, Labour 8, Greens 6. No mention of PDs or others. If PDs are 3 and others are 8, this leaves 17 undecided. Distributing the undecided using the unfathomable MRBI logic, FF would have 31% in the capital and FG would have 27%, well shy of 30%

[The Analyser]

There is nothing unfathomable about MRBI's adjustments. They have been explained here and elsewhere repeatedly and have proven when crosstabulated with election results to stand up to scrutiny. At 19% FG would be in a position to win a seat in most Dublin constituencies and to win two in a couple. And 29% would put one of FF's two seats in many areas in doubt.

[rockofcashel]

of course they can break it, but whether they will is another matter. There seems to be no doubt that they will climb from their 2002 level, but seeing as that was disastorous, that wouldn't be hard.

They also hit slightly above 29% in the 2002 locals, but local candidate factors helped in doing that.

I think 25-27% would be likely for FG, but that alone would be an excellent campaign.

It is the FF slip that needs to be looked at really. They got a lot of 2 seats out of 3 in the last election, that would nearly all fall if they were to start dropping below 35% of the FPV. They would also start to lose 2 from 4's at 35% unless they were very good at managing their votes in those constituencies, and the problem with that, is that when things get very tight, backbenchers go on solo runs, as it becomes every man for himself.

Basically, the FG/Lab vote, is going to come close to the FF/PD overall, and the difference in a hell of a lot of constituencies is going to be where the Greens and SF candidates transfer to.

My feeling is that Greens will transfer to the Rainbow, but Shinners will not transfer to FF, leaving many FF candidates as the last men standing.

[FLESHPRESSER]

There is nothing unfathomable about MRBI's adjustments. They have been explained here and elsewhere repeatedly and have proven when crosstabulated with election results to stand up to scrutiny. At 19% FG would be in a position to win a seat in most Dublin constituencies and to win two in a couple. And 29% would put one of FF's two seats in many areas in doubt.

Sure, but has MRBI's method of adjustment (giving FG four times as many undecideds as FF) been tested in a General Election? I'm asking. I don't know.

[The Earl of Desmond]

It's reasonable that FG will get more undecided as people don't actively dislike FG in the way they do actively dislike FF. People might need to be convinved about FG but there is a hugh soft level of support for FG and it remains for FG to convince those people to give them a chance.

People who vote FF tend to have their mind made up by now whereas the people who are not so sure tend to lean more to FG during a campaign.

Also not a single poll or commentator got the FG vote in the 2004 locals and Euro cotes any where close to right. If you read back on polls and the predictions at the time everyone predicted another wipeout for FG and even after the pollsters and commentaors didn't have the maturity to admit they were wrong and give FG and Kenny credit for such a huge achievement of getting more local seats and beating FF in the Euro vote so there is not reason why the same won't happen this time too and there is no reason at all why FG can't reach to Nov 82 levels - but of course the bizarre inability of commentators to give FG credit for it's hard work will stop them admitting it.

[The Analyser]

There is nothing unfathomable about MRBI's adjustments. They have been explained here and elsewhere repeatedly and have proven when crosstabulated with election results to stand up to scrutiny. At 19% FG would be in a position to win a seat in most Dublin constituencies and to win two in a couple. And 29% would put one of FF's two seats in many areas in doubt.

Sure, but has MRBI's method of adjustment (giving FG four times as many undecideds as FF) been tested in a General Election? I'm asking. I don't know.

It has been tested publicly in local, European and by-elections. Privately it has been tested against general election data dating back a decade and the mathematical calculations on which the adjustments are based were a product the 1997 and 2002 results, with the organisation doing polls on the day of the election and crosstabulating that day's polls versus that day's results, to work out the real distinction between what people say they will (or did) do to pollsters, and what people did on the same day in the election. The MRBI calculations have made all its results in all elections since 2002 more accurate, though curiously they still underestimate FG (but they get closer to FF's real results).

[KeithM]

I will bet €100 with anyone who wants the bet on FG not getting more thann 30%. I'll be generous and pay out on 30%+1 vot upwards.

[The Analyser]

I will bet €100 with anyone who wants the bet on FG not getting more thann 30%. I'll be generous and pay out on 30%+1 vot upwards.

So no factual analysis, then, just a statement of your opinion as fact. Plus ca change.