Election to be called next week.

[MINISTER]

I was speaking with a senior national figure from the opposition benches tonight and they are getting ready for Bert to cut and run next Tuesday.

This is because he knows he is under pressure. But he has factors to consider:

1) There is possibly a lack of credence about his honesty and integrity. Interestingly, he confined his denial of the latest controversy to bringing money to Manchester. I have heard it said by a journo he is bought and paid for!

2) He is due to go before Mahon sooner rather than later and if he can cut and run soonest he is a bit safer. Mind you O'Callaghan didn't go all the way to the courts for himself. It is rumoured he is looking after Bertie.

3) Hazel Lawlor is due in Mahon tomorrow, which will probably be adjourned. So he is safe there.

4) He is very well protected by wealthy business people, developers and a coterie of others; but how long before someone rats or becomes compromised/disgruntled and spills the beans?

5) If he wins he will be replaced soon into the new term. But what are the long term consequences for FF if this happens?

Finally, no one else except people who are interested in politics such as users of this site probably care!!

[The Analyser]

deleted

[KeithM]

I was speaking with a senior national figure from the opposition benches tonight and they are getting ready for Bert to cut and run next Tuesday.

This is because he knows he is under pressure. But he has factors to consider:

1) There is possibly a lack of credence about his honesty and integrity. Interestingly, he confined his denial of the latest controversy to bringing money to Manchester. I have heard it said by a journo he is bought and paid for!

2) He is due to go before Mahon sooner rather than later and if he can cut and run soonest he is a bit safer. Mind you O'Callaghan didn't go all the way to the courts for himself. It is rumoured he is looking after Bertie.

3) Hazel Lawlor is due in Mahon tomorrow, which will probably be adjourned. So he is safe there.

4) He is very well protected by wealthy business people, developers and a coterie of others; but how long before someone rats or becomes compromised/disgruntled and spills the beans?

5) If he wins he will be replaced soon into the new term. But what are the long term consequences for FF if this happens?

Finally, no one else except people who are interested in politics such as users of this site probably care!!

All of these things were well known weeks ago bar the nonsensical Manchester story (which if anything will hit FG rather than FF) so any talk of "cutting and running" is garbage. I believe that it was always Ahern's intention to call the election next week, because leaving things any later had the potential to cause problems with the state exams in June.

[rockofcashel]

called next Wednesday, with a 22 day lead in, for Thursday the 17th

[FutureTaoiseach]

Only Bertie knows for sure. It's not the Opposition's decision.

[MINISTER]

called next Wednesday, with a 22 day lead in, for Thursday the 17th

Thanks for that. At least it will all over bar the shouting in a month.

[rockofcashel]

yup, it'll be called on Wednesday in an attempt to wrong foot the Opposition who will expect it to be called Thursday evening, like it was last time, to an empty Dail

[KeithM]

called next Wednesday, with a 22 day lead in, for Thursday the 17th

Thanks for that. At least it will all over bar the shouting in a month.

..and there'll be a lot of that!

[David Cochrane]

I think it will be Tuesday - the President may not be around on Wednesday or Thursday, and remember, she has to be around to accept a visit, and everyone I'm speaking to says she's free on Tuesday.

That said, the moment anyone thinks the election is about to be called my phone and blackberry start buzzing like crazy. There was apparently a huge media flurry outside the Department of An Taoiseach tonight with people thinking it would happen tonight. It didn't - and I must have predicted it would be called about three times already. Very Jehovah Witness of me for shame.

It'll be announced in the next 7 days, I think we can all be sure of that.

[Catalpa]

called next Wednesday, with a 22 day lead in, for Thursday the 17th

that's pretty close to my own prediction too.

Sometime on 24/26 April for the Election 17 May.