Can FG/Lab/Greens pick up enough gains to form a government?

[apkavanagh]

Can FG/Lab/Greens pick up enough gains to form a government? Surely not impossible on these parties combined figures in opinion polls, but...

Where can FG/Lab/Greens pick up enough gains to form a government?
Car-Kil: FG or GP need to gain from FF (50% chance)
Cyav-Mon: FG need to gain from FF or IND (25% chance)
Cla: FG need to gain from IND or FF (25% chance: never know, the crazy seelction policy might just pay off )
Cork E: FG need to gain from FF (30% chance)
Cork NC: FG need to gain from FF (10% chance)
Cork NW: FG need to gain from FF (40% chance)
Cork SC: FG or LAB need to gain from FF (70% chance)
Cork SW: FG or LAB need to gain from FF (70% chance)
Don NE: FG need to gain from FF (55% chance)
Don SW: LAB or GP need to gain from FF (0.5% chance!!!)
Dub C: Don NE: FG need to gain from FF or IND (8% chance)
Dub MW: LAB or FG to pick up extra seat or gain from FF/PD (90% chance for extra seat, 10% chance to win 2nd seat by gain)
Dub N: FG to gain from FF (40% chance)
Dub NC: LAB or GP to gain from FF (40% chance)
Dub NE: FG or GP to gain from FF (50% chance)
Dub NW: FG or GP to gain from FF (5% chance)
Dub S: LAB or FG need to gain from FF or PD (55% chance)
Dub SC: LAB or GP to gain from FF or SF (60% chance)
Dub SE: FG to gain from PD or FF (65% chance)
Dub SW: FG to gain from FF (60% chance)
Dub W: FG to gain from SocPar or FF (25% chance)
Dun L: FG to gain from FF or PD (80% for one gain, 20% for two gains)
Gal E: FG need to gain from IND or FF (30% chance: never know, the crazy seelction policy might just pay off )
Gal W: GP to gain from PD or FF (55% chance)
Ker N: LAB to gain from SF or FF (35% chance)
Ker S: FG to gain from IND or FF (20% chance)
Kil N: GP to win extra seat and not FF, or to gain from IND (10% chance)
Kil S: FG to gain from FF (30% chance)
Laois-Off: FG to gain from PD or FC (75% chance)
Lim E: FG gain from PD or FF (55% chance)
Lim W: FG gain from FF (40% chance)
Long-West: FG gain from both FF and PD, i.e. 2FG 1LAB 1FF result (10% chance)
Louth: FG or LAB or GP gain from FF or SF (45% chance)
May-o: FG gain from IND (45% chance)
Meath E: LAB wins extra seat (75% chance)
Meath W: FG gain from FF (20% chance)
Ros-SLeit: FG gain from FF (35% chance)
Sligo-NLeit: FG win Harkin's seat (40% chance)
Tipp N: FG or LAB gain from FF (55% chance)
Tipp S: LAB gain from IND (30% chance)
Waterf'd: FG gain from FF (25% chance)
Wickala: GP or LAB or FG win Fox seat , gain from FF (70% for one party to win Fox seat, 25% for further gain at expense of FF)
Wexford: FG gain from FF (5% chance)

My rule of thumb: the higher the percentage, the greater the chance of a gain. 50% or higher ratings - constituencies that I think FG/LAB/GP will make gains in. 35%-50% - good bets: constituencies that they should pick up on a good day. 20%-35% - outside bets: constituencies that they should pick up on a very good day. 8%-20% - bye bye PDs, Bertie... 0%-8% - FF RIP
The most vulnarable parties are listed first, i.e. "gain from IND or FF" means the more likely party to lose out will be Independents.

[apkavanagh]

If those parties picked up the 50%+ likelihood gains, you'd have FG 43 LAB 24 GP 8 (76 seats), if they picked up the 35%+, you'd have FG 49, LAB 25, GP 10 (84 seats)

[QuizMaster]

Whatever way you look at it, it's game on.

Normally in a general election, people are electing a government.
In 2002, people knew this was not possible as FF were unbeatable.
So they voted for other reasons, which is why so many independents were elected.

This time around, people know (or feel) that they can choose the government. This can only help the rainbow parties, and hurt the inds.

[Kerrygold]

There is absolutely no chance of a FG gain from FF in South Kerry.

[hiding behind a poster]

There's probably enough threads on this already - and anyway, all that'll happen to this one is that KeithM will come on and misrepresent poll figures, FutureTaoiseach will deny reality, Rockofcashel will claim that FG made no progress in 2004, and various FF posters will imply that whatever the position nationally, TD X (insert name as appropriate) is such a hard worker, and has delivered so much in Constituency Y (insert constituency as appropriate), that whatever about government losses elsewhere, they won't happen HERE (insert Y again).

Now while its true that I'm as guilty as anyone in terms of analysing things constituency by constituency, the reality is that FG/Labour/Grn polled 37.1% nationwide at the last election. Depending on which polls you believe, they're likely to poll between 41% and 45% at least, this time round. At the same time, the government parties look set to poll at least 6% lower. That's a substantial number of votes crossing the floor of the House - at the very least, about 120,000. For simplicity's sake, that's about 3,000 votes leaving the Government, and 3,000 going to the Opposition, in EVERY constituency.

And if that number of votes are going to change sides, then seats will change sides with them. Lots of seats. As FG discovered in 2002, if the mood is against you, no-one's safe.

[FutureTaoiseach]

For simplicity's sake, that's about 3,000 votes leaving the Government, and 3,000 going to the Opposition, in EVERY constituency.

But the evidence so far is that Rainbow gains will be patchy - it just isn't the kind of universal-swing that you are implying. It won't be "3,000 in every constituency".

[hiding behind a poster]

For simplicity's sake, that's about 3,000 votes leaving the Government, and 3,000 going to the Opposition, in EVERY constituency.

But the evidence so far is that Rainbow gains will be patchy - it just isn't the kind of universal-swing that you are implying. It won't be "3,000 in every constituency".

As I was saying, FutureTaoiseach will come on and deny reality. Clearly he doesn't canvass, doesn't talk to people outside the PDs, and therefore isn't picking up the mood on the ground that even die-hard FFers will admit to.

And as for your final comment, if you actually read what I was saying, I said "for simplicity's sake" the figures represent a swing of 3,000 votes in each constituency - in other words, it will be higher in some and lower in others - but the net effect is that an awful lot of votes will move from Government to Opposition. And with those votes will go seats. If you can't understand that, then you're clearly an even bigger moron than previously assumed.

P.S - And don't bother coming back here with bullsh*t analysis of poll figures - the comparative figures I gave for RedC compared to 2004, IMS compared to 2002, and MRBI compared to either 2002 or 2004 are correct. That is the swing from government parties to opposition parties. If you want to do something about it, go canvass for your discredited candidate in Wexford - it'll do you good. (Though not him, I suspect. )

[meriwether]

HBAP, KeithM has outdone himself on the other thread.
Keith's analysis of the current political climate- FG to win 34 seats.
It beggars belief.

[iceman]

ap - Dub SC: LAB or GP to gain from FF or SF (60% chance)

Are you having a laugh mate?

[Kierkegaards avenger]

This forecast takes for granted that every current FG/Lab/Green seat will be retained. It also assumes that Sinn Fein will not make any gains. This is rediculous. I have said it before and I'll say it again. The mood against the govt. is not as negative as some posters would have you beleive, change in Ireland is slow and election predictions are not worth the paper they are written on. Whatever happens in this election FF will lead it. FG have already admitted this by their selection policy. They are trying to maximise their vote for the 2010/11/12 election whn they will have a serious crack at the Fianna Fail. And hopefully oust them.