Red C poll this weekend

[FutureTaoiseach]

I know because I was polled last night.

What do you think it will show?

My predictions: FG down 4% to 30% because of the ill-advised student-visa plan to force the Irish to compete with another 40,000 non-EEA students for the few jobs available.

FF down 2% (25%) because of failed reshuffle, Anglo-fatcat pay-hikes, and 13% unemployment - but no further because they have reached the floor beyond which they cannot go. They are down to their diehard supporters.

Labour down 5% because of the passport-strike, which underlines the dangers of Socialism to the Irish way of life.

SF unchanged at 9%. Publicitly surrounding the North and policing has largely died down. They need the oxygen of publicity to make progress. Yet the economic environment ought to be ripe for an anti-Establishment force. The two will factor each other out, resulting in no change.

Greens unchanged. The extra Junior Minister cancels out the Sargent revelations.

Independents up 9% to 17% because of all the above.

[White Horse]

FG to go up a couple of points at the expense of Labour due to the public sector unions kamakaze go slower strop.

Otherwise, as you are.

[locke]

Do we know what days the poll was/will be taken?

A few things to note
- People are more focussed on potential governments now. I see no boost for Independents outside margin of error stuff
- The reshuffle was scarcely noticed beyond people interested in politics (Varadkar's brain fart even less so).
- Nobody (aside from FT) seems to be associating FG's student plans with immigration
- The FG Ard Fheis was last weekend
- The major news stories are the Passport Office and the Abuse allegations. The latter has little political impact. The first causes some problems for Labour and FF.


Overall, I'd say
FG +1 (Party conference and few negatives, but don't have the potential to go much higher)
FF -1 (Bumping along the bottom)
Lab -2 (Passport office doing no favours at all)
Greens +1 (They haven't had a bad few weeks)
SF +1 (Also having had a decent period)

On a separate note (and this won't be reflected in the opinion polls), I believe I'm starting to see Sinn Fein losing their transfer repellence. A number of people who would have had them down the bottom of the sheet are now indicating that they will give them top preference after FG and Labour.

[LDF]

FG up 2%, FF down by the same margin, Greens up 1%, Lab unchanged, sf down 1%, Inde's unchanged.

[Toland]

I know because I was polled last night.

What do you think it will show?

My predictions: FG down 4% to 30% because of the ill-advised student-visa plan to force the Irish to compete with another 40,000 non-EEA students for the few jobs available.

FF down 2% (25%) because of failed reshuffle, Anglo-fatcat pay-hikes, and 13% unemployment - but no further because they have reached the floor beyond which they cannot go. They are down to their diehard supporters.

Labour down 5% because of the passport-strike, which underlines the dangers of Socialism to the Irish way of life.

SF unchanged at 9%. Publicitly surrounding the North and policing has largely died down. They need the oxygen of publicity to make progress. Yet the economic environment ought to be ripe for an anti-Establishment force. The two will factor each other out, resulting in no change.

Greens unchanged. The extra Junior Minister cancels out the Sargent revelations.

Independents up 9% to 17% because of all the above.

Where did you do your training in wishful thinking? You have developed the discipline into a fine art.

[hammer]

Its Ireland. FF up 2%, FG -1%, Labour unchanged, Greens -1% ( IS IT POSSIBLE TO HAVE A NEGATIVE RATING )

[Supermanpolitician]

FG up or down 1 - irrelevant move.
FF up or down 1 - irrelevant move.
LAB up or down 1 - irrelevant move.
GP up or down 1 - irrelevant move.
SF up or down 1 - irrelevant move.

FF getting loads of airtime. FG and SF Ard Fheis. Nobility of Trevor Sargents's resignation. Lab performing well all around.

As you were gentlemen.

[constitutionus]

TBH the way things are going i seriouly havent a clue.

but i do think the gov will go up, both FF - on how theyre dealing with the PS, AND the greens for getting their extra minister (though that could go any way, i mean WTF is their national support anyway? up or down doesnt matter to them as long as their faithfull are happy)

as to the opposition ive a feeling both LAB and FG will go down. LAB over the PS strikes and their inability to comment credibily on it, and FG mainly becuase theyve been riding so high lately. a bit of complacancy is bound to kick in.

watch those FF ********************ers crow if FF DO go up though, i bet theyll try to put it down to "cowans decisive leadership and his reshuffle" or some bollocks like that.

its just the way things go and to be honest says more about the quality of the opposition than the gov (i.e if they cant even trounce THESE ********************ups they must be really bad)

[Supermanpolitician]

TBH the way things are going i seriouly havent a clue.

but i do think the gov will go up, both FF - on how theyre dealing with the PS, AND the greens for getting their extra minister (though that could go any way, i mean WTF is their national support anyway? up or down doesnt matter to them as long as their faithfull are happy)

as to the opposition ive a feeling both LAB and FG will go down. LAB over the PS strikes and their inability to comment credibily on it, and FG mainly becuase theyve been riding so high lately. a bit of complacancy is bound to kick in.

watch those FF ********************ers crow if FF DO go up though, i bet theyll try to put it down to "cowans decisive leadership and his reshuffle" or some bollocks like that.

its just the way things go and to be honest says more about the quality of the opposition than the gov (i.e if they cant even trounce THESE ********************ups they must be really bad)

We also have Anglo, the Passport Office and other dramatic displays of incompetence.

[Toland]

FG up or down 1 - irrelevant move.
FF up or down 1 - irrelevant move.
LAB up or down 1 - irrelevant move.
GP up or down 1 - irrelevant move.
SF up or down 1 - irrelevant move.

FF getting loads of airtime. FG and SF Ard Fheis. Nobility of Trevor Sargents's resignation. Lab performing well all around.

As you were gentlemen.

I'd broadly agree (though Labour may suffer a little from the Passport Office shenanigans).