General Election predictions - June 2010 / May 2012 ?

[NoPropertyTax]

I wonder would anyone like to post any predictions on the state of the parties after the general election ? - if it were to be held this June, and how that might compare with the results if the current government holds on right till the end of the 5 year term in May 2012.

My own predictions would be that Fianna Fail would do much better going this summer - rather than waiting till 2012. Fine Gael would not do as well now, and Labour would do better now than in 2012.

Here is my % predictions :

June 2010 : FF :30%
FG : 37%
Lab : 20%
Greens : 3%
SF : 5%
Others /Ind : 5%


May 2012 : FF 24%
FG 40%
Lab 18%
Greens : 2%
SF : 8%
Others / Ind 8%

[PrinceMax]

June 2010

FF 32%
FG 32%
Lab 24%
Greens 1%
SF 5%
Others 6%

May 2012

FF 38%
FG 26%
Lab 26%
Greens 0%
SF 5%
Others 5%

[NoPropertyTax]

An interesting prediction - FF making a strong recovery on the back of a rapidly improving economy, or maybe adopting much more populist policies. I'd say FG would change leader if an election was approaching with those 2012 numbers.

[PrinceMax]

By the time of the 2012 election, Enda Kenny will have been in his job for 10 years. Nowhere else would a leader be allowed to hang around that long. He's only getting FG decent results now, because the economy is performing so badly. If there are modest improvements in the economy, with a potential for long term growth, then I can see FF getting back in. They seem to have the ability to make people forget the past. Also, Labour are strong. Gilmore seems to be a very popular leader and eventually that has to drive more voters towards Labour.

[thebig C]

June 2010

FF 32%
FG 32%
Lab 24%
Greens 1%
SF 5%
Others 6%

May 2012

FF 38%
FG 26%
Lab 26%
Greens 0%
SF 5%
Others 5%

HA! If you think FF will be getting those results you don't have a clue whats happening. All the Spin and creative accounting in the world won't enable them to buy the next election. Again!

You comments on Enda Kenny, really show where you are comming from!

[PrinceMax]

HA! If you think FF will be getting those results you don't have a clue whats happening. All the Spin and creative accounting in the world won't enable them to buy the next election. Again!

You comments on Enda Kenny, really show where you are comming from!

Well, I remember coming up to election 2007, only right before the election did anybody think FF had a chance. 3 months is a long time in politics. 2 years is a hell of a long time. FF are far more politically savvy than FG - evident in the fact that FF are only around 6% off FG in recent polls. FF pretty much destroyed the country and still get decent numbers. Things can only get better for them unfortunately. It might have been different if FG had the balls to change leader.

[Kerrygold]

SF are currently between 8 and 10% in the polls. Are people suggesting that they'll drop 3-5% in a couple of months (if an election was to be held this June, which it won't).

Also, predicting what'll happen in June 2012 is rather pointless.

[thebig C]

Well, I remember coming up to election 2007, only right before the election did anybody think FF had a chance. 3 months is a long time in politics. 2 years is a hell of a long time. FF are far more politically savvy than FG - evident in the fact that FF are only around 6% off FG in recent polls. FF pretty much destroyed the country and still get decent numbers. Things can only get better for them unfortunately. It might have been different if FG had the balls to change leader.

That FF are only 6% off FG says more about FF supporters then it does about Fg, Labour SF or the Irish people. Remember, alot of people still have some sort of vested interest in FF being in power.

You are right about 2007. Even FF were a bit surprised at that. However, despite the fact that the economy was tanking behind the scenes FF were essentially still borrowing to fund their election. For example, they were still paying Civil Servants increases as late as 2008! Next time around there just won't be any money to buy off sectional interests. The best they can do is to promise and end to more cuts. And, after whats happened, few will believe them.

[florin]

An interesting prediction - FF making a strong recovery on the back of a rapidly improving economy, or maybe adopting much more populist policies. I'd say FG would change leader if an election was approaching with those 2012 numbers.

Rapidly improving economy? How's that going to materialise?

[FakeViking]

Rapidly improving economy? How's that going to materialise?

Haven't you heard? St Lendahand is going to put on a pointy hat and wave a wand around while whispering the secret mantra ("Lehman-áre mushos spondulicks")