General Election predictions - June 2010 / May 2012 ?

[turdsl]

Stupid thoughts abound, S,F,are always more than 5%, pointless exercise anyway.

[west'sawake]

June 2010, assuming the Govt collapses

FF 30%

FG 32%

Labour 19%

SF 8%

Independents 8%

Greens 3%



Spring 2012, assuming a modest economic recovery and the Govt runs its course and calls the election and/or a time of its choosing

FF 36% 63 seats (inc Ceann Comhairle)

FG 31% 59 seats (Seat bonus due to better transfers than FF)

Lab 18% 28 seats

SF 6% 5 seats

Greens 4% 3 seats (Ryan, Sergeant and Gormley to hold)

Ind 5% 8 seats

[factual]

Encouraging that you predict SF 5 seats, where you predict the extra one???

[Eye of Angkor]

Well, I remember coming up to election 2007, only right before the election did anybody think FF had a chance. 3 months is a long time in politics. 2 years is a hell of a long time. FF are far more politically savvy than FG - evident in the fact that FF are only around 6% off FG in recent polls. FF pretty much destroyed the country and still get decent numbers. Things can only get better for them unfortunately. It might have been different if FG had the balls to change leader.

2007! 30 years earlier, in 1977, FF were generally written off for a combination of reasons yet returned with one of its best results.

I have little doubt that FF would be in the early-mid 20ties if an election were called now. But no election has been called. Anything may happen between now and the election in which case one cannot write off FF holding on to most of its seats.

[Clive]

Not sure about 2012 but if the election was held this June I reckon the seat numbers would be something like

FG 68
FF 56
LP 30
SF 5
SP 2
Ind 5

[charley]

june 2010

FF 61
FG 58
LAB 26
SF 6
GP 2
SP 2
IND 11 Lots of single issue candidates

[Observer]

June 2010:

FF 25% - 45 seats
FG 33% - 62 seats
Lab 20% - 36 seats
SF 7% - 7 seats
Greens 2% - 1 seat
Others 13% - 15 seats (inc. SP 2 and PBP 3)

2012? I'd expect FF to be slightly lower - the spin will be harder to sustain in two years' time when other economies are recovering but we're still struggling.

Unfortunately, I don't think we'll have a general election this year - the government will stagger on (even after it loses the 3 by-elections in the autumn) until illness, death, and/or Lowry bolting brings it down some time in 2011.

The Dublin results will stun FF.

[PrinceMax]

June 2010:

FF 25% - 45 seats
FG 33% - 62 seats
Lab 20% - 36 seats
SF 7% - 7 seats
Greens 2% - 1 seat
Others 13% - 15 seats (inc. SP 2 and PBP 3)

2012? I'd expect FF to be slightly lower - the spin will be harder to sustain in two years' time when other economies are recovering but we're still struggling.

Unfortunately, I don't think we'll have a general election this year - the government will stagger on (even after it loses the 3 by-elections in the autumn) until illness, death, and/or Lowry bolting brings it down some time in 2011.

The Dublin results will stun FF.

But, if other economies start recovering, we probably will to a certain extent. Tourism will increase. There may also be slight increases in the number of businesses setting up here. Unemployment will undoubtedly come down, and FF will take the credit. And nobody will bother to ask how we got to where we were anyway.

[west'sawake]

Encouraging that you predict SF 5 seats, where you predict the extra one???

At least one gain in the Donegals. I don't see them getting back the seat they lost in Dublin as Labour and Ind Socialists will gain there. I think the old, Republican, Ind FF that the Blaney clan garnered will finally go SF this time. Young Blaney will regret his return to FF. A shocking result when you think at one Stage FF and Ind FF had three seats in Donegal north east, soon be reduced to one. Joe McHugh F.G is safe. Which Donegal is Pearse Doherty running in?

[charley]

At least one gain in the Donegals. I don't see them getting back the seat they lost in Dublin as Labour and Ind Socialists will gain there. I think the old, Republican, Ind FF that the Blaney clan garnered will finally go SF this time. Young Blaney will regret his return to FF. A shocking result when you think at one Stage FF and Ind FF had three seats in Donegal north east, soon be reduced to one. Joe McHugh F.G is safe. Which Donegal is Pearse Doherty running in?

doherty is south west. padraig mc lochlainn is north east candidate,very likely to be elected