3 bye-elections, when?

[flogs]

I'd be amazed to see a by-election in Waterford. I think if FF lose the by-elections, it'll tip the balance towards a general election anyway.

[TommyO'Brien]

One thing to remember is the impact of three simultaneous by-elections. A government can excuse a defeat in one, maybe two. But when you have three, one in the north of the state, one in the south east and one in the east, one in a rural area, one in an urban area and one in an urbanised area, when taken together all three could easily become a mini-general election. So not alone the numerical impact of the loss would be important. The psychological impact of losing a mini-general election would be dramatic. Politicians are great for rationalising and coming up with excuses. FF TDs have been doing that - aw sure lads, on the day they will come back to us. Ah sure lads it won't be as bad as the polls say. But if they are crushed in three different parts of the country in simultaneous by-elections then that is when the ability to rationalise excuses begins to run out. Remember how FF was shocked with the loss of just two by-elections in Cork in 1979 - this time they wouldn't have the excuse of saying 'sure its just a regional issue' because the defeats would be in three of the four provinces; Ulster, Leinster and Munster.

It is the danger of they becoming a mini-general election that will frighten FF the most. Even if they lose all three they still, just about, have enough numbers to hold on. But the psychological impact of three defeats would be devastating and wake up every FF TD from their rationalised excuses and finger crossing that things will improve. It would create the ultimate siege mentality. Watch for that.

[Cellach]

It would create the ultimate siege mentality. Watch for that.

Or a backbench revolt. Knives in backs and such forth.

[Simbo67]

One thing to remember is the impact of three simultaneous by-elections. A government can excuse a defeat in one, maybe two. But when you have three, one in the north of the state, one in the south east and one in the east, one in a rural area, one in an urban area and one in an urbanised area, when taken together all three could easily become a mini-general election. So not alone the numerical impact of the loss would be important. The psychological impact of losing a mini-general election would be dramatic. Politicians are great for rationalising and coming up with excuses. FF TDs have been doing that - aw sure lads, on the day they will come back to us. Ah sure lads it won't be as bad as the polls say. But if they are crushed in three different parts of the country in simultaneous by-elections then that is when the ability to rationalise excuses begins to run out. Remember how FF was shocked with the loss of just two by-elections in Cork in 1979 - this time they wouldn't have the excuse of saying 'sure its just a regional issue' because the defeats would be in three of the four provinces; Ulster, Leinster and Munster.

It is the danger of they becoming a mini-general election that will frighten FF the most. Even if they lose all three they still, just about, have enough numbers to hold on. But the psychological impact of three defeats would be devastating and wake up every FF TD from their rationalised excuses and finger crossing that things will improve. It would create the ultimate siege mentality. Watch for that.

Actually when I heard about Cullen, the Cork by-elections in 1979 sprung to mind also

[Congalltee]

Now is the time to find out if Fine Gael are winners or losers.
They should bring forward legislation to require a bye-election to be held within 3 months of a vacancy and then move the Dublin South writ. The government would be morally required to move their two on the same day. If not, constituents should bring legal challenges. However, I suspect that bringing down Willie O'Dea was an exception and Fine Gael will continue as perennial losers.

[leroy42]

Isn't it incredible that the government, of whatever hue, has the right to decide when an by-election will held. Surely this is the opposite of democracy. This really is a bizarre situation and I am surprised that it hasn't caused problems before.

[TommyO'Brien]

Isn't it incredible that the government, of whatever hue, has the right to decide when an by-election will held. Surely this is the opposite of democracy. This really is a bizarre situation and I am surprised that it hasn't caused problems before.

Technically the Dáil not the government has. But the government uses its majority to get its will done.

[devnull]

Actually when I heard about Cullen, the Cork by-elections in 1979 sprung to mind also

Bear in mind that the reason the by-election defeats were so shocking was because they were both in the Taoiseach's home county and the FF vote fell by 22% from the previous GE in Lynch's own constituency (the FFer was barely ahead of the FGer on first preferences).

Nowadays it's a lot harder to replicate that shock because it's assumed that by-election voters just use the opportunity to protest against whoever's in government.

[dotski_w_]

I've said it elsewhere, but surely FG and LP should consider the strategy of withdrawing pairing arrangements until the writs are moved? I know it's not a weapon to be used lightly, and for good reasons, but in this case they could say it would be restored the moment the Govt acceded to the bye-elections, which in one case has been dragging on for a considerable time.

It would put FF in a tough place, as the ebb and flow of Ministerial availability would make it very hard to secure a majority very often (it could be harder some times than if they held and lost 3 bye-elections). It would also keep the pressure on the GP, who I presume are not comfortable about discussing their support for disenfranchising voters.

[Socratus O' Pericles]

Now is the time to find out if Fine Gael are winners or losers.
They should bring forward legislation to require a bye-election to be held within 3 months of a vacancy and then move the Dublin South writ. The government would be morally required to move their two on the same day. If not, constituents should bring legal challenges. However, I suspect that bringing down Willie O'Dea was an exception and Fine Gael will continue as perennial losers.

Aren't Labour favourites to win the DS BE (along with FG in waterford and SF in Donegal) ?

2007 general election

2007 General Election: Donegal South West
Party Candidate 1st Pref % Seat Count
Fianna Fáil Mary Coughlan 10,530 26.42% 1 1
Fianna Fáil Pat "the Cope" Gallagher 9,606 24.10% 2 2
Fine Gael Dinny McGinley 9,167 23.00% 3 3
Sinn Féin Pearse Doherty 8,462 21.23%
Labour Party Seamus Rodgers 1,111 2.79%
Green Party Seán Ó Maolchallann 589 1.48%
Independent John Doherty 388 0.97%
Green Party Garreth McDaid

Dublin South by-election, 2009[11] Party Candidate 1st Pref % Seat Count
Fine Gael George Lee[12] 27,768 53.4% 1 1
Labour Party Alex White[13] 10,294 19.8%
Fianna Fáil Shay Brennan[12] 9,250 17.8%
Green Party Elizabeth Davidson[14] 1,846 3.5%
Sinn Féin Shaun Tracey[14] 1,705 3.3%
Independent Ross O'Mullane[15] 650 1.2%
Independent Frank O'Gorman 351 0.7%
Independent Noel O'Gara 172 0.3%
Electorate: 90,882 Valid: 52,236 Spoilt: 443 Quota: 26,019 Turnout: 57.8%

2007 General Election: Dublin South[10]

Party Candidate 1st Pref % Seat Count
Fianna Fáil Séamus Brennan 13,373 21.8 1 1
Fianna Fáil Tom Kitt 8,487 13.9 2 3
Fine Gael Olivia Mitchell 9,037 14.8 3 7
Green Party Eamon Ryan 6,768 11.1 4 8
Fine Gael Alan Shatter 4,752 7.8 5 9
Progressive Democrats Liz O'Donnell 4,045 6.6
Labour Party Alex White 3,575 5.8
Fianna Fáil Maria Corrigan 3,438 5.6
Fine Gael Jim O'Leary 2,897 4.7
Labour Party Aidan Culhane 2,809 4.6
Sinn Féin Sorcha Nic Cormaic 992 1.6
Sinn Féin Shaun Tracey 851 1.4
Fathers Rights Liam Ó Gógáin 180 0.3
Electorate: 89,464 Valid: 61,204 Spoilt: 418 Quota: 10,201 Turnout: 68.88%

2007 General Election: Waterford[5][6]

Party Candidate 1st Pref % Seat Count
Fianna Fáil Martin Cullen 11,438 23.1 1 1
Fine Gael John Deasy 7,554 15.3 2 9
Labour Party Brian O'Shea 5,610 11.3 3 10
Fianna Fáil Brendan Kenneally 5,624 11.4 4 11
Fianna Fáil Ollie Wilkinson 5,963 12.0
Fine Gael Paudie Coffey 4,658 9.4
Sinn Féin David Cullinane 3,327 6.7
Workers' Party John Halligan 1,708 3.4
Fine Gael Jim D'Arcy 1,340 2.7
Green Party Brendan McCann 1,049 2.1
Independent Mary Roche 934 1.9
Independent Declan Waters 270 1.5
Independent Francis Hennessy 53 0.1
Electorate: 73,434 Valid: 49,528 Spoilt: 430 Quota: 9,606 Turnout: 68.03%