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Thread: Possibility that UK election could be called early, like now

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    Politics.ie Member KingKane's Avatar
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    Possibility that UK election could be called early, like now

    Guido Fawkes (who appears to have some sources) is suggesting that the UK election could be called very shortly indeed. Possibly this weekend!
    Dan Sullivan. I was back but we still couldn't all have a vote.
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    Politics.ie Regular Panopticon's Avatar
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    A caveat: The source is from the BBC, so this is at three degrees of separation from the ultimate decision (Brown to #10 staff to #10's BBC contact to BBC source).

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    Politics.ie Member KingKane's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Panopticon View Post
    A caveat: The source is from the BBC, so this is at three degrees of separation from the ultimate decision (Brown to #10 staff to #10's BBC contact to BBC source).
    Strictly speaking isn't it Brown to Queen and on from there?
    Dan Sullivan. I was back but we still couldn't all have a vote.
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    Politics.ie Regular Panopticon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKane View Post
    Strictly speaking isn't it Brown to Queen and on from there?
    Quite. She could certainly say "no, we all want to see you make it to May", in theory.

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    I heard April 13th was to be the big day - with the polls trending towards convergence (6-7% range Tory lead) we are likely to have a hung parliament, possibly Labour + Lib Dems + SNP. So if there's crap coming along (double dip recession, fiscal tightening) maybe better to get it over with now from Labour's point of view.

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    I'm curious why there isn't uproar from the Tories over the constituencies in England at the moment.It seems that due to the pile up of massive Tory votes in the South East and other areas and a much more even distribution of Labour votes,that the Tories would need about 10% more votes than Labour to gain a small majority and conversely Labour can retain power if they are only 3 or 4% behind the Tories on election night. Is there not some body to oversee the constituencies and if so why have they not "evened out" the votes and made it more likely for the Tories to win with their higher vote? Actually I can't stand the Tories and Labour have been a bitter disappointment but I prefer democracy to both of them even if it means that lightweight Cameron wins
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albert Aherne View Post
    It seems that due to the pile up of massive Tory votes in the South East and other areas and a much more even distribution of Labour votes,that the Tories would need about 10% more votes than Labour to gain a small majority and conversely Labour can retain power if they are only 3 or 4% behind the Tories on election night.
    It's as much to do with the fact that turnouts in safe Labour seats tend to be very low, artificially depressing the headline Labour vote, as it is to do with Labour seats losing electorate.

    Is there not some body to oversee the constituencies and if so why have they not "evened out" the votes and made it more likely for the Tories to win with their higher vote? Actually I can't stand the Tories and Labour have been a bitter disappointment but I prefer democracy to both of them even if it means that lightweight Cameron wins
    There's a set of boundary commissions which redraw the boundaries every 10 years or so, and the constituencies at the next election will be "new" ones (although based on 2002 electorates for which the boundaries were implemented in 2007). The process is slower than here because an initial set of proposals are made, which can then be appealed and modified based on representations from the public or political parties.

    The Tories are planning, if they get a majority in May, to immediately redraw the boundaries in a speeded-up fashion (no appeals or representations allowed to the proposals), with the official purpose of reducing the number of seats by 10% (a cynic might suspect that the unofficial purpose might be to gerrymander the constituency boundaries in their own favour).

    As far as the OP goes, Guido Fawkes is a sh*t stirrer.

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    Politics.ie Member Sync's Avatar
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    A stirrer with a pretty good record. It's a good time to call the election tbh for Labour. It would make sense. Things aren't going to get better than this in 2 months, and the numbers are pretty tight.

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    Politics.ie Regular dunno's Avatar
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    linky no worky, 404.

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    Politics.ie Regular sondagefaux's Avatar
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    Ahem. The OP is from two weeks ago. Plus there's going to be a UK budget on March 24th, followed by local elections in England on May 6th.

    Finally, page on Guido Fawkes blog linked to in the OP is gone.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...24-budget.html

    http://order-order.com/2010/02/25/bb...election-call/

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