Possibility that UK election could be called early, like now

[Chrisco]

It's as much to do with the fact that turnouts in safe Labour seats tend to be very low, artificially depressing the headline Labour vote, as it is to do with Labour seats losing electorate.

Here's an explanation of why the system is currently biased towards Labour:

ukpollingreport.co.uk Electoral Bias

As far as the OP goes, Guido Fawkes is a sh*t stirrer.

He reports rumours and gossip; sometimes rumours and gossip are true.

A stirrer with a pretty good record. It's a good time to call the election tbh for Labour. It would make sense. Things aren't going to get better than this in 2 months, and the numbers are pretty tight.

The OP is a couple of weeks old.

The election will be May 6th. You can bet your House on it - Gordon Brown is!

[toxic avenger]

No way is it going to be on any other date than May 6th.

[Albert Aherne]

Here's an explanation of why the system is currently biased towards Labour:

Excellent article. Thanks.. and also to Observer for his comments. Btw how do you thank someone on this forum?Never did figure it out

[Observer]

Excellent article. Thanks.. and also to Observer for his comments. Btw how do you thank someone on this forum?Never did figure it out

UK Polling Report (which Chrisco linked to) is an excellent (non-hysterical and non-partisan) site for discussion of polls and the minutiae of the UK election on a constituency level.

"Thanks" is fine

[TommyO'Brien]

I doubt if it will be brought forward. A couple of reasons:

1) While Labour has come back somewhat it still has not gone ahead in any poll yet.

2) The Tories are at sixes and sevens. They may be able to pull it together in an election. Tactically it would be better for Labour to leave the Tories stumbling as they have done in pre-election mode. The more they stumble, the better the chance that Labour might overtake them eventually in a poll, and so achieve an important psychological advantage.

At this stage I would bet on a hung parliament and wouldn't rule seeing Labour emerge still in power.

It all hinges on who comes out with more seats and more popular votes. If the Tories get both the odds are that Brown will go to the Palace on the morning after the election to tender his resignation to the Queen, and she will commission Cameron to form a government that afternoon. (When the PM from one party resigns following an election, the monarch automatically commissions the leader of the opposition to form a government.) It is an either/or situation. If Labour achieve either more seats or more votes, Brown would have an excuse to do what Heath did in 1974 - not submit his resignation but begin talks with the third party or other parties. Heath chose not to resign but began coalition talks with the Liberals. Brown might open negotiations with the Lib Dems.

Until he formally submits his resignation the next stage, forming a new government, cannot happen. So the key issue to watch is - will any reason emerge to justify not immediately submitting his resignation? Contrary to myth new governments are not formed after every election. Blair was PM once - appointed in 1997 he remained on in office through each general election. Similarly Thatcher was PM once, from 1979 to 1990.

If Brown has either more seats or more votes (while close to the Tories on seats) he will see that as justification for opening up negotiations with the Lib Dems, or the Nationalist parties.

Of course, to be awkward, Brown could decide to return to the pre-twentieth century precedent, whereby a PM even having lost an election doesn't resign. Instead he could draft a Queen's Speech and have it voted on, in the knowledge that it would be defeated, and then resign. Prior to then PMs generally waited for a parliamentary defeat before resigning. It was only early in the 20th century that the idea of a resignation immediately after the election, without waiting for a King's Speech defeat, developed. But it isn't set in stone. If Brown wants to be awkward he could return the old tradition, but it would be very unwise in my opinion.