Dublin South candidates

[Simbo67]

I think Jim O'Leary certainly has the ability to win the seat and the desire too. What will be important is how much FG HQ puts into winning it also. They need to up O'Leary profile in the media to tackle Whites media links. They also need to address the Lee mess. I would prefer that there be a selection convention very soon and we can move on from it and then tackle the issues. I think that, especially in Dublin South, there is going to be blood on the streets in terms of FG v Labour. Its about presenting voters with a view of a path out of here versus Labours continued populism (although that worked for Lee!).

[meriwether]

According to the Evening Heddald Shay has thrown his hat into the ring.

Thank god for that.

[Econdo]

As a FF living in DS I believe that this is a great chance for the Party to take back the second seat but only if we run the right candidate.

Last by-election we ran the wrong, yes George Lee had a landslide and public opinion was against FF but Shay Brennan was weak in every aspect from his campaign to his TV interviews. He was look like a Fool.

If FF want to win they need to run the right person and that person is Senator Maria Corrigan. She has the experience and know how and has build up a strong vote remember that she gave Alan Shatter a run for his money in the 2007 General Election and thereby nearly taking the third seat for FF in Dublin South.

My Money is on Corrigan to win the seat if FF let her run, otherwise Alex White will take it......

[edwin]

As a FF living in DS I believe that this is a great chance for the Party to take back the second seat but only if we run the right candidate.

Last by-election we ran the wrong, yes George Lee had a landslide and public opinion was against FF but Shay Brennan was weak in every aspect from his campaign to his TV interviews. He was look like a Fool.

If FF want to win they need to run the right person and that person is Senator Maria Corrigan. She has the experience and know how and has build up a strong vote remember that she gave Alan Shatter a run for his money in the 2007 General Election and thereby nearly taking the third seat for FF in Dublin South.

My Money is on Corrigan to win the seat if FF let her run, otherwise Alex White will take it......

Are you for real or just saying that because you're on her campaign team?? I'm an FFer and I can assure you you're in a minority of one in the party if yuo think that by-election is winnable. Donegal south West is winnable - Dublin South is not even remotely near that.

[Swift]

Its got to be O'Leary for FG- solid grassroots record, experience across the constituency and well liked- and poll-topper in Locals.

Labour will run White but he won't get it - we have had enough of ex-RTE parachute candidates who dont even live in the constituency! He seems like a decent enough bloke but would be more of the same- all style and v little substance... he can wait to take Eamon Ryans seat at next GE on the last count when the greens vanish into distant memory.

As for FF- not sure who they will go for - probably Maria Corrigan I'd say- surely Shay Brennan will be talked out of humiliating himself again.. She carries WAHEEEY too much baggage to get any more than core FF support- and not even all of them will vote for her at convention.

I predict O Leary to take it, but it will be a close run thing between him and White... only chance of White pippng him is if hordes of FF voter vote for White just to spite FG.

[Drico]

I predict O Leary to take it, but it will be a close run thing between him and White... only chance of White pippng him is if hordes of FF voter vote for White just to spite FG.

and from tallying in a Dublin South count centre in the locals I would predict that FF are more likely to transfer to FG than Labour.

It seemed odd to me. FF voters tended to transfer to FG even more so than Greens. FG tended to transfer to Labour. Labour tended to transfer to Greens.

Very very strange.

[Simbo67]

and from tallying in a Dublin South count centre in the locals I would predict that FF are more likely to transfer to FG than Labour.

It seemed odd to me. FF voters tended to transfer to FG even more so than Greens. FG tended to transfer to Labour. Labour tended to transfer to Greens.

Very very strange.

I've seen this very trend before. Depends on the neighborhood of course but FG transfer to labour much more than in reverse the ffers can come to us after they finish with their own.

[Delarivier]

I've seen this very trend before. Depends on the neighborhood of course but FG transfer to labour much more than in reverse the ffers can come to us after they finish with their own.

I saw this too, in the locals in Pembroke-Rathmines. And I saw FF transfers get a FG candidate elected!

I hope O'Leary does get the nomination. Unfortunately I've seen too many bad decisions made by FG HQ that completely ignore the wishes (and local knowledge) of the constituency organisation. They'll probably look for another big name and shaft O'Leary yet again. I don't think the people will fall for it again - and it would hand the seat to White.

[theoutsider]

In 2007, she got 5.2% of the FPV in an election where she was up against 2 FF Ministers and a former PD Minister for Government leaning votes. By the end of the count, she was 1700 votes ahead of Alex White. She is also ideally suited to attracting back some of Liz O'Donnells vote.

Liz's votes are back to FG at this stage, Corrigan is the new Ann Ormonde

[theoutsider]

O'Leary I reckon would be mad to run. Alex White is the nailed on certainly to win. FG will be a bad taste on the mouths of Dublin South voters in the by-by-election. The only circumstance whereby O'Leary could possibly entertain running would be the cast iron promise of a Seanad seat if Kenny becomes Taoiseach - but Kenny cannot offer that seeing as he is going to abolish it!

For white to win, he's need to be ahead of O'Leary on first count and get more FF transfers than O'Leary. Neither of which is a cert. I wouldn't be betting the house on White.