I have to think about this. I think Alex White is the favourite but it must be remembered that he got lots of positive press coverage in the run up to 2007 (easy spots on The Sunday Supplement etc) and still did very poorly, getting 5.8% (not that Jim did much better, he didn't). However, Alex White had quite a high profile, much higher than Culhane (his running mate).
In the by-election he was mister sourpuss because Glee stormed in and got 20% of the vote.
Assuming that Jim runs he needs FG to make him the Dublin spokesperson effectively. He needs to be on every local radio show talking about all things Dublin. Highlighting the silly mayor idea (silly because the mayor will have no powers).
Maybe it will work if they start telling some hard truths about what we need to do in the economy and bash the economic populism (both bashing labour and distancing himself from the Lee debacle).
FF won't be forgiven though so I expect them to come a distant third.
FG are going to have to put a lot into backing Jim to win the seat again.



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