Double post...
In 2007, she got 5.2% of the FPV in an election where she was up against 2 FF Ministers and a former PD Minister for Government leaning votes. By the end of the count, she was 1700 votes ahead of Alex White. She is also ideally suited to attracting back some of Liz O'Donnells vote.
For a Liberal Fianna Fáil perspective, take a look at
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O'Leary I reckon would be mad to run. Alex White is the nailed on certainly to win. FG will be a bad taste on the mouths of Dublin South voters in the by-by-election. The only circumstance whereby O'Leary could possibly entertain running would be the cast iron promise of a Seanad seat if Kenny becomes Taoiseach - but Kenny cannot offer that seeing as he is going to abolish it!
There's probably little chance of the bye-election happening at all before the general election (based on Donegal).
Not really, there would be a Seanad elected/appointed in the month(s) after the next GE, so there would be seats going - the soonest the new Govt could conceivably abolish it would be mid-term, and more likely at the same time as the following GE.
Agree that White must be odds-on if there is a bye-election though .... in a way, FG may not be keen to have it, but if they don't it reduces their leverage to push for Donegal SW ... Mind you, do they want 2 bye-elections which are won by LP and SF?
Opinion Polls Blog
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