Will we now have 2 by-elections and who will win?

[Baron von Biffo]

No Corrigan won't win the by-election. This will be a shoo-in for White. Put your shirt on it.
Brennan and Corrigan will make a respectable FF ticket for the next general election. One of them will get in.

You're probably right. If the government decide to hold a by-election White will probably get through. FF are still despised and after Lee FG is damaged goods in the constituency.

[Reality bites]

FF are rock bottom in Dublin in all the polls, there is no earthly way they would a by election here.

its impossible to know who would win it, Alex White would have a good chance now but i wouldn't bet the bank on it either. At this moment he is best positioned to pick up transfer in any count though he would have to outpoll the FF candidate which i think he would considering the new political reality in Dublin.

Previous results are no barometer for by-elections. In Kildare North Catherine Murphy won the by-election thou failed to hold onto her seat at next GE despite increase in seat number.

Jim O'Leary is still best bet, he could poll upto 40% on 1st count I would think

[Econdo]

I would exect Maria Corrigan to win the Fianna Fáil convention. The delegates wont back Shay again I dont think

Have to agree with you regarding Maria Corrigan.... She should without doubt get the nod over Shay..

[FutureTaoiseach]

Some members of the public in Dublin South on the vox pop felt betrayed and disappointed in GL for resigning his seat. Had he resigned from FG but held onto his seat, it would have reflected better on him. He could have argued he was putting country before party. By also resigning his seat, he leaves himself vulnerable to the charge of putting his country second. He was entrusted by the electorate of Dublin South with serving out a full term. He arguably broke that trust. For him to get the Finance portfolio, Richard Bruton would have to go - an arrogance of presumption. Maybe the celebrity went to his head and are responsible for an inflated sense of entitlement. He spent more time in his mother's womb than he did in Leinster House. Tut tut.

[edwin]

As a FF living in DS I believe that this is a great chance for the Party to take back the second seat but only if we run the right candidate.

Last by-election we ran the wrong, yes George Lee had a landslide and public opinion was against FF but Shay Brennan was weak in every aspect from his campaign to his TV interviews. He was look like a Fool.

If FF want to win they need to run the right person and that person is Senator Maria Corrigan. She has the experience and know how and has build up a strong vote remember that she gave Alan Shatter a run for his money in the 2007 General Election and thereby nearly taking the third seat for FF in Dublin South.

My Money is on Corrigan to win the seat if FF let her run, otherwise Alex White will take it......

Also an FFer but I can assure you that Maria Corrigan has absolutely zero chance of winning the by-election (nor has anyone else from the party in fairness). She is an obvious candidate in the general election but possibly not the by-election. She hasn't exactly had a great profile recently.

[drjimryan2]

no chance in the bye....

we'll run shay, john and corrigan..........1 maybe 2 of the guys should get elected.,........

thats why we should run Cllr Lahart in the bye election to ensure a good run at two seats and to keep the ABC camp happy....

[factual]

This will be used as an excuse to defer the Donegal by-election even further.

Labour to win Dublin South. Alex White will finally have his day.

Donegal: I called it for FG on another thread but now I'm not so sure. I could actually see FF winning this one, believe it or not. Or SF. Or FG. It's a question of transfers. SF and FG hate each other, but the voters might have other ideas, who knows.
When I see the candidates I'll have a better idea.

Great to see someone not normally sympathethic to SF predicting a SF win in Donegal.

[charley]

by-election donegal SW brian o domhnail FF. in a GE sinn fein might get a seat but not in a by-election

[DCon]

so what has shay been up to locally?

Is he not busy with his Anglo day job?

Or is he a fully paid FF member now?

[hiding behind a poster]

I'd say if the Dublin South one was held next week, White would probably win - but it won't be held next week. But whenever it is held, whichever of White and the FG candidate is ahead after the first count will win.

And speaking of the FG candidate, how about the caring PD herself, the poster-yummy-mummy of all yummy-mummies, Liz O'Donnell?