Will we now have 2 by-elections and who will win?

[LDF]

Your point on Donegal is kind of damaged by your belief that there's going to be a 8500 person swing to Labour in Dublin South. That's patently ridiculous.

You can't really take the last by-election result as a benchmark. It was unusual due to the presence of George Lee. His candidacy had a momentum from the start and unrivalled media coverage.

Things have changed. It is entirely possible that White will gain enough votes to see off every other candidate. I'm not saying it's a good thing, just that I think that's what will happen.

[Sync]

Then let's disregard 2009 and look at 2007 where the 61,000 voters liked White so much they gave him 3500 votes, less than Liz O'Donnell. There's no good faith basis to believe Labour will take that seat other than "Well I really really want it to happen"

[FutureTaoiseach]

Too early to say on Dublin South. Cowen won't be in any hurry to call it, and another FG leader might be more popular. I had expected Labour to win the first by-election in Dublin South anyway because of the public-sector vote in that constituency, but I was wrong. I have no time for Labour and their worldview and wish them nothing but defeat in the two by-elections. As usual they will have the media pumping them up, given that most media-candidates join the Labour party (Orla Guerin, Alex White etc.) and their love-bombing of Eamon Gilmore. On Donegal SW, I think it will go to an Indo from the FF gene-pool. Even in the locals, the Opposition fared disappointingly in that constituency, and the FF vote held up better than the rest of the country. What slippage there was went to the Indos.

[dse123]

No better time for FF to call by-elections - they could roll it into the mayoral election as well if they got themselves sorted with that. The damage caused to FG (or at least Kenny) won't be clear for a few days.

[Effin Effer!!!]

Despite all of his hard work in the local area White and Labour won't take the seat.

Shay Brennan on the Fianna Fail ticket should have a good chance of taking back his father's seat. He's been making himself visable locally, and has been keeping himself active in the party.

Alot depends on who Fine Gael put forward. But voters won't be happy at having to hit the polls again because of their man.

Either way, it won't be as exciting as last time what with no "X Factor" candidate in the race.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Shay Brennan on the Fianna Fail ticket should have a good chance of taking back his father's seat. He's been making himself visable locally, and has been keeping himself active in the party.

Alot depends on who Fine Gael put forward. But voters won't be happy at having to hit the polls again because of their man.

Either way, it won't be as exciting as last time what with no "X Factor" candidate in the race.

No chance. No govt has won a by-election in 28 years and this particular constituency is as fickle as they come.

[lostexpectation]

He's been making himself visable locally, and has been keeping himself active in the party.

so what has shay been up to locally?

[Keith-M]

I suspect that FF will now sit on their hands on DSW and wait for FG to move the writ on DS. I wouldn't expect to see eith seat filled before early June.

[LDF]

Then let's disregard 2009 and look at 2007 where the 61,000 voters liked White so much they gave him 3500 votes, less than Liz O'Donnell. There's no good faith basis to believe Labour will take that seat other than "Well I really really want it to happen"

If you read my post you would have noticed that I said I didn't particularly want White to win. I just think he will.

2007 isn't a good benchmark either. The world has changed. In 2007 Seamus Brennan ran and topped the poll. Many of those voters deserted FF for FG in the by-election because of the candidate on offer. We have to think about where those voters will go now. I think they will go to White.

[Baron von Biffo]

I suspect that FF will now sit on their hands on DSW and wait for FG to move the writ on DS. I wouldn't expect to see eith seat filled before early June.

We really need to change the system to prevent governments allowing seats to remain vacant because they know they'll lose the election. Time to bring in a requirement to hold the by-election within 90 days of the seat becoming vacant.