Sinn Fein seats next General Election

[davehiggz]

SF currently have 4 seats

Cavan Monaghan: Caoimhghin O Caolain
Louth: Arthur Morgan
Dublin South Central Aengus O Snodaigh
Kerry North Martin Ferris

There are 6 areas where they came close in 2007

Donegal North East
Donegal South West
Dublin Central
Dublin North East
Dublin North West
Dublin South West


What are the prospects for SF next GE?
Will they keep their 4 seats?
Will they get anywhere up to 10?

[Fraxinus_]

They should really be getting that Donegal seat going by the last few elections (including Europe). Can't see them hitting double figures, 6 max. Minimum of 4.

[spidermom]

Would most probably gain in DSW...depends...very much on whether Sean Crowe runs??

Its not certain as I understand!

[JollyRedGiant]

Will they keep their 4 seats?

Possibly although O Snodaigh and Ferris could be vulnerable

Will they get anywhere up to 10?

again possibly - on a good day they could get 10 - if things go badly it could be down to 2.

The reality is that SF should be making hay - but they appear to have run out of momentum and are getting squeezed from both the left and the right. This is because they are shifting their policies to the right leaving their left flank exposed - and as a consequence leaving both the LP and in rural areas FF to squeeze them from the right. why vote for a small pro-neo-liberal party when you can vote for a big one.

[johnfás]

Possibly although O Snodaigh and Ferris could be vulnerable

again possibly - on a good day they could get 10 - if things go badly it could be down to 2.

The reality is that SF should be making hay - but they appear to have run out of momentum and are getting squeezed from both the left and the right. This is because they are shifting their policies to the right leaving their left flank exposed - and as a consequence leaving both the LP and in rural areas FF to squeeze them from the right. why vote for a small pro-neo-liberal party when you can vote for a big one.

+ a significant section of society who will simply not vote for Sinn Féin. I have no qualms in stating that I am such a person. People can come on and hurl abuse, but that is the reality for large swathes of our electorate. Simple fact.

[bogtrotter]

I believe that SF will make the break through in the near future as more and more people realise that they are the only real alternative to FF anfd FG........They have proved themselves in government north of the border and are in the process of a major party overhaul in the south......Watch them move when things start going their way.....

[FutureTaoiseach]

Based on the Sunday Tribune analysis, SF would gain 2 seats (Dub NW and SW) and lose one (Martin Ferris). As such, they would return with 5 seats.

Kerry North/West Limerick (3)
A constituency review sees Newcastle-West remain in Limerick while Abbeyfeale and Glin move out to the new Kerry North/West Limerick constituency. Fine Gael has a quota and Jimmy Deenihan would keep his seat. Fianna Fáil also has a 25% share of the vote and enough to keep its seat. Labour has a 23% share of the vote in Kerry North compared to Sinn Féin's 21%. That would leave a close battle between the likely candidates, Arthur Spring from Labour and Sinn Féin's Toireasa Ferris, for a seat, with Labour shading it based on the 5 June figures.

Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (n/c), Labour 1 (+1) SF 0 (–1)

Cavan-Monaghan (5)
With just 35% in Cavan and 29% in Monaghan, Fianna Fáil would certainly drop a seat, while Fine Gael, with 46% of the vote in Cavan and 30% in Monaghan, would definitely gain a seat. Sinn Féin's seat, despite a small drop in its vote in Monaghan, is rock-solid.

Outcome: FG 2 (+1), FF 2 (-1), Sinn Féin 1 (no change)

Dublin South West (4)
Could FF end up with no seats here? Unthinkable? Maybe not. According to the local election results, the party is at just 15%, with three-quarters of a quota and depending on transfers for a seat. Sinn Féin is at 17% and could regain the seat it lost two years ago. Labour at 31% has over one-and-a-half quotas and has a chance of two seats. Fine Gael's one seat is rock-solid at 21%.

Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c), Sinn Féin 1 (+1)

Donegal North -East (3)
Fianna Fáil would be under pressure to hold its two seats, with its support dropping to 36%, compared to Fine Gael's 28% and Sinn Féin's 12%. However, neither Fine Gael nor Sinn Féin has a realistic chance of making a gain with those figures. And stripping away the plethora of smaller candidates making up the remaining 24% – none of them looks a likely Dáil challenger – Fianna Fáil should have enough to make two quotas and hold its own.

Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 2 (n/c)


Donegal South-West (3)
There is particular interest in this one given Pat The Cope Gallagher's election to Europe and the need for a by-election. Fianna Fáil could be in trouble with its share of the vote dropping below 30%, just a few points ahead of Fine Gael's 25%. However, Sinn Féin's vote stood still at 13%, suggesting Pearse Doherty won't make it. Furthermore, a large percentage of the vote, 23%, was hoovered up by a plethora of independents – some recent Fianna Fáil members – and none of them looks a realistic Dáil candidate. If that vote is excluded, Fianna Fáil is up at 38%, compared to FG's 32.5% and Sinn Féin's 17%. While 38% is well short of the 50% needed for two quotas, Fine Gael has only 1.3 quotas and Sinn Féin has only two-thirds of a quota. On that basis, Fianna Fáil might just hang onto its two, although without 'The Cope' on the ticket, there is certainly a doubt about this one.

Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 2 (n/c)

Dublin South-Central (5)
This was a disaster zone for FF with its vote slipping to a miserable 13%. One of its two TDs would certainly go at that level of support, though it would hold one seat. FG looks good to hold a seat at 14.5% but no more than that – it's pretty much where it was in 2007, as is Sinn Féin. Aengus Ó Snodaigh just held on the last time but at 11%, he should just squeeze home. The big winner would be Labour, which took a third of the votes in the constituency nine days ago. At that level a second seat is guaranteed.

Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Labour 2 (+1), Sinn Féin 1 (n/c)

Dublin North -East (3)
At over 30%, Labour is on course to match its performance here in the Spring Tide election of '92, but with only three seats available now, there probably won't be a second seat this time. Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are hovering around the 20% mark, suggesting each would hold its one seat. There is no chance of FF regaining its second seat. Despite having two massive local election vote-getters in the constituency – Larry O'Toole and Killian Forde – Sinn Féin remains well short of the support necessary to win a seat.

Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (n/c), Labour 1 (n/c)

Louth (5)
Fianna Fáil's vote dropped dramatically from 42% in the 2007 general election to just 24% on 5 June. In a general election, this would mean the party would lose one of its two seats. Fine Gael's share of the vote on 5 June was 27%, 2% less than 2007. On these figures, Fergus O'Dowd would hold his seat and the party would also have a chance of winning another seat due to Louth's change from a four- to a five-seater. Sinn Féin's support has marginally increased so it would hold its seat. Labour garnered 11% of the vote in the local elections, which is a large increase on its 4.98% share in 2007. If this were reflected in a general election, one of the party's two local election poll-toppers in Drogheda, Gerald Nash or Paul Bell, would have a good chance of securing a seat.

Outcome: FG 2 (+1), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (+1), SF 1 (n/c)

[spidermom]

DSW is dependant on Sean running...he has a lot of ground swell support...the last GE knocked the stuffing out...not clear whether he will run again...


On a personal level..he's a great bloke...very dedicated!( I am not a shinner...but have a lot of time for Sean)

But....SF would only regain if Sean runs!


As for returning no ff.....remains to be seen.....Conor has strong support down in templeogue etc....Charlie may be a goner!!

[factual]

I think Sinn Féin must work all out to increase representation in Dublin, if you don't have a good representation in Dublin then you cannot claim to be at the heart of Irish politics.

[Cael]

I think PBP will take O Snodaigh's seat. There is a real taste for a Socialist alternative in that area and PBP are increasing support leaps and bounds.