Sinn Fein seats next General Election

[tenderloins1]

Cavan-Monaghan and Louth should be safe

Kerry North /Limerick West will be interesting. Votes will desert FF but to where?
In Tralee in the locals Labour outpolled Sinn Fein by 1277. Arthur Spring outpolled Toireasa Ferris and Terry O'Brien was also elected.
In Listowel Sinn Fein outpolled Labour by 135 votes.
In Newcastlewest Labour outpolled Sinn Fein by 502 votes.
In the 2007 General election Labour got 2995 transfers and Sinn Fein got 2166.
Its a tight call but I'd go with Ferris to lose to Arthur Spring.

In Dublin South Central Aengus O Snodaigh is in trouble. He won his seat by just 69 votes in 2007, indeed better vote management by Labour would have cost him his seat.
I cant see the Labour vote dropping and in the local elections both PBP candidates Joan Collins and Brid Smith got almost 5000 votes between them.
The Fianna Fail vote here will plummet, even still 1 FF, 2 Lab, 1 FG and 1 PBP is how it looks at the minute.

Given the state of Donegal employment wise you'd have to think that Sinn Fein should win a seat in each of the Donegal Constituencies.
Looking at the local election results I was suprised at the vote Padraig MacLochlainn got, I thought given his exposure during the euro campaign that the SF vote would have gone up by more than the 2% it did in Inishowen.
Still both he and Pearse Doherty should get in.

In Dublin, as last time there will be a number of candidates in with a shout.
Sean Crowe, if he runs, should take Charlie O'Connors seat.
With Harney retiring and Gogartys votes deserting him, there must be an outside chance of a Sinn Fein seat here, although Derek Keating should take a seat too.

Dessie Ellis and Larry O'Toole must surely take some of the disaffected FF vote. One of them to get in.

Elsewhere hard to see anyone bar Sean McManus in Sligo Nrth Leitrim.

Although Sinn Feins economic proposals may well be good, they are unfortunate in that they have nobody of stature to convey them to the public. I like Arthur Morgan but its very hard to be convinced by him.
Its the catch 22 situation they are in , they have some good TDs but not the talent that other parties have.
For example...if Pat Rabbitte was a Sinn Fein TD (no jibes about splits etc, I'm just taking an example), they'd be doing a lot better in the polls than they are now.

So at the minute maybe 7 seats.

[Pat Mc Larnon]

I don't doubt that, Pat - but you said you use canvassing as a means to improve constituency services. Surely what the canvass is about depends on what the person on each door wants to talk about?

I took it that the original blogger was asking about SF doing polling in individual constituencies and tailoring policies to meet local needs. SF don't have the wherewithal or the inclination to canvass that way. Of course while doing political canvasses SF members are asked for their own feedback on what are the issues of most concern.

[Pat Mc Larnon]

Well, go on then, let's have it!! What would you do with these scroungers cheating the welfare system? It's costing us €2-3bn annually. Leave them alone, is suppose?

The SF pre budget submissions are here.

[hiding behind a poster]

I took it that the original blogger was asking about SF doing polling in individual constituencies and tailoring policies to meet local needs. SF don't have the wherewithal or the inclination to canvass that way. Of course while doing political canvasses SF members are asked for their own feedback on what are the issues of most concern.

No-one canvasses that way, because you can't mix canvassing with polling.

[QuizMaster]

...Looking at the local election results I was suprised at the vote Padraig MacLochlainn got, I thought given his exposure during the euro campaign that the SF vote would have gone up by more than the 2% it did in Inishowen...

A good balanced analysis there. I was going to say slightly optimistic, but maybe you are on to something.

On P MacLochlainn, he increased his vote from 2004, which was a peak for SF everywhere. Also he had a running mate this time. They tried their best to spread the vote but it was completely lob-sided and the other guy never got a look-in.

[Kerrygold]

Meeow. Would you like a slice of spite with your bitterness?

Er, you showed a complete lack of knowledge of the constituency, and you don't even know Cullinane's first name, hence my comments.

Ferris is in trouble: basically, the constituency is now somewhat larger as it contains a portion of Co. Limerick. This has to have an effect, does it not? According to the Sunday Tribune, based upon local election results, Labour would pip Ferris for the final seat (though I am sure he has more than a fighting chance).

He was in trouble in 2007 too. Look how that worked out. Yes, it will be a tight one no doubt but Ferris has been working in West Limerick for quite a while now and recently opened a constituency office in Abbeyfeale. SF are now the only party to have a full time office in the entire area, and it is extremely busy. Surely a good sign. Also, Martin received a lot of credit in the area after stepping in when a family from the city were terrorising people around Abbeyfeale.

And forgive me if I view anything the Sunday Tribune say about SF with a large pinch of salt. You can throw any results from the local elections in the West Limerick area out the window, because SF and Labour's candidates in the Newcastle West area received most of their votes from a part of the consituency that weren't lumped in with North Kerry in the redraw of the boundary.

There's a vast difference between winning a local election seat and winning a Dáil seat, as Labour found out last time.

[Pat Mc Larnon]

No-one canvasses that way, because you can't mix canvassing with polling.

Who said you can?

[fearmhor18]

Sinn Fein are in political limbo.