Sinn Fein seats next General Election

[Wednesday]

So, where is Joanne Spain now, eh?

Here.

[Pat Mc Larnon]

What do the current opinion polls indicate? Are there any constituency only opinion polls? Most political parties conduct opinion polls or surveys in marginal constituencies and tailor their policies to attract the swing vote. Are Sinn Fein doing this?

SF simply do political canvasses as a means to improve constituency services rather than acting as a spring board to tailor policies.

[disgruntledcitizen]

+ a significant section of society who will simply not vote for Sinn Féin. I have no qualms in stating that I am such a person. People can come on and hurl abuse, but that is the reality for large swathes of our electorate. Simple fact.

+1, any my never is a lot stronger than Dr. Paisleys when it comes to SF

[Pat Mc Larnon]

+ a significant section of society who will simply not vote for Sinn Féin. I have no qualms in stating that I am such a person. People can come on and hurl abuse, but that is the reality for large swathes of our electorate. Simple fact.

That is a simple fact and must be factored into any voting permutations.

[Kerrygold]

Why, because you're a Methodist? Yeah, fair enough.

Ó Snodaigh is a clown. He's out.

Wonderful analysis.

Ferris: strong enough locally, though the party made absolutely no headway in the council elections (critical in shoring up his support). Labour did quite actually and are his biggest threat.

You might want to check this again. SF went up by 6 and 7% in the Tralee and Listowel electoral areas and performed a lot stronger than they did in 2004. Topped the poll in the Listowel area and Listowel TC as well as taking Labour's only seat on the latter.

(Eoin Cullinane) Waterford: no chance.

This about sums up your entire post.

[hiding behind a poster]

What do the current opinion polls indicate? Are there any constituency only opinion polls? Most political parties conduct opinion polls or surveys in marginal constituencies and tailor their policies to attract the swing vote. Are Sinn Fein doing this?

Party constituency polls aren't done for the purpose of tailoring policies - they're done to establish where a party's strong and weak areas are, to guide campaign strategy, to establish whether support from HQ is necessary or worthwhile in order to gain or hold a seat, etc. Policy doesn't come into it.

[stripey cat]

Party constituency polls aren't done for the purpose of tailoring policies - they're done to establish where a party's strong and weak areas are, to guide campaign strategy, to establish whether support from HQ is necessary or worthwhile in order to gain or hold a seat, etc. Policy doesn't come into it.

It doesn't really work like that in SF. Canvassing is about meeting the voters and everyone else, trying to counter the endless bad media by being available to constituents whether they support the party or not, and putting forward the Republican view.

Very little opinion polling is done outside of canvassing.

Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing I don't know, but it's the way SF prioritise things.

[rant_and_rave]

SF simply do political canvasses as a means to improve constituency services rather than acting as a spring board to tailor policies.

What about focus groups? All the parties do it.

[rant_and_rave]

It doesn't really work like that in SF. Canvassing is about meeting the voters and everyone else, trying to counter the endless bad media by being available to constituents whether they support the party or not, and putting forward the Republican view.

Very little opinion polling is done outside of canvassing.

Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing I don't know, but it's the way SF prioritise things.

Canvassing is an informal type of polling. Sinn Fein will not make progress unless they steal votes from Labour.

[QuizMaster]

Canvassing is an informal type of polling. Sinn Fein will not make progress unless they steal votes from Labour.

... which won't be happening.
Labour is largely a party of middle class teachers, librarians and social workers. They won't be switching to SF.

If SF have anything going for them, perhaps they really are a party of the working class, or the underclass. Their best hope is to get people out who never voted before.

Although take away the whole Northern Ireland thing*, and what have you left? A party that throws left wing shapes but don't have much credibility.


*which of course you do. All parties have signed up to Belfast/St. Andrews.