LinkBack URL
About LinkBacksThere is a possibility of Sinn Féin picking up another seat in Cavan-Monaghan if they play their cards right.
There is a possibility of Sinn Féin picking up another seat in Cavan-Monaghan if they play their cards right.
The coal company came with the worlds largest shovel, they took all the timber and stripped all the land. They dug for their coal till the land was forsaken and they wrote it all down as the progress of man.
Originally Posted by redpaddy69
No chance.
CÓC got exactly one quota last time.
Joe O'Reilly for FG will pick up Margaret Conlon's seat.
Unenthusiastic about any of the buggers.
I agree, it is a possibility that they could get 2 seats but they will have to work very hard at it and ensure that the dissident vote returns to the party...
Its hard to say exactly - because SF still aren't making any progress in the polls, despite conditions as fruitful as they possibly could be for a hard-left party. In terms of possible gains, I think they've a 50-50 shot in each of the Donegal constituencies, so I'll give them one of those. Morgan, O'Caolain and Ferris should hold, and Ellis should win in DNW (though if the rumours I hear are true, FG might spring a surprise). But I'm really dubious about O'Snodaigh's chances of holding his seat. Yes the FF vote will be down, but he could be squeezed by having a PBP candidate AND some kind of SP/SWP candidate. At the moment I'd just about give him the seat, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
So that'd be 6 seats - and I don't see them making gains anywhere else. FG beat them to the 2nd FF seat in Dublin North-East in 2007, and there's still one FF seat there. And there's just nowhere else where they're competing. So 6 seats, and maybe 7 if they get the 2 in Donegal, but maybe back to 6 if O'Snodaigh loses.
"Elite - a small superior group; esp one that has a power out of proportion to its size." (Oxford English Dictionary)
The majority cannot therefore be the elite.
I think Sinn Fein should change their strategy. It is a given that they are anti the Government and current economic policy. Sinn Fein's target market is the left wing, working class vote. The Unions/ Labour are now middle class, and the political class of Labour is very upper class.
Sinn Fein need to win the hearts and minds of working class people by showing them that Labour are no longer the party to represent them.
I have seen this strategy work.
Wicklow is a Labour stronghold since the foundation of the state. Sinn Fein went from zero to 2 seats in the 2009 Wicklow Local Elections by being more active on the ground in the traditional Labour strongholds.
It's interesting how political reality has now kcked in for SF and its supports. Five years ago, they were talking about getting 12 seats, today they seem to believe the best they can do it eight.
For what it's worth, hre's how I see things going if there was an election in the next three months.
Cavan/Monaghan : COC will hold and if they were brave enough they would give him a running mate.
Louth : Whether it's AM or not, they should be able to hold, Labour seem to have totally lost their way here, and the extra seat will go to FG.
Kerry North / West Limerick : It's a total toss up between SF and Labour for the last seat. Neither has a huge support base in WL, so it will be the Tralee votes that decide between Spring and whichever Ferris is in contention. With more FG transfers to play with, I think Labour will just about shade it.
Dublin SC : AOS is in serious trouble. The lefty vote is splitting in all kind of directions and Labour must have a strong chance of taking a second. Right now, I think SF will lose this one.
Of the others;
Donegal North East : With McDaid unlikely to stand, Inishowen will be key, right now I think SF has a better than 50/50 chance.
Donegal South West : One assumes Gallagher is gone, so I think they will also take this.
Dublin Central : They are going backwards here, so little chance.
Dublin North East : Woods is standing down, but I think FF might just hold it.
Dublin North West : One of the FFers is gone, but whether it's a SF or FG gain is debatable. I suspect the national trend would give it to FG.
Dublin South West : Depends on whether SC stands. If he does he should take it, but otherwise not, so too early to call it.
So that's either 4 or 5 seats in my book, but without knowing the exact line-ups, it's hard to call.
A little lesson on geographic and political terms for dummies :
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Let's remember that Louth is now a 4 seater with Kirk being the CC.
Dermot Ahern is a safe seat with Fine Gael's Fergus O'Dowd certain to retain his too.
This leaves two seats left however 3 are in contention. SF, Labour and FG for a second seat. It is a question whether Mairead McGuiness MEP will run for FG again.
Could Arthur Morgan be unseated there?
There a rumours AM may not stand again. I'm working on the assumption MMcG will stand and she should take a seat. That leaves the last seat between SF and Labour. SF were miles ahead of Labour in the locals in June so they should hold on.
A little lesson on geographic and political terms for dummies :
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Why, because you're a Methodist? Yeah, fair enough.
Ó Snodaigh is a clown. He's out.
Ferris: strong enough locally, though the party made absolutely no headway in the council elections (critical in shoring up his support). Labour did quite actually and are his biggest threat.
Ó Caoláin is their strongest T.D. and is safe, though comments on 'The Week in Politics' concerning a proposed State-takeover of Catholic schools would've caused some raised eyebrows in his neck of the woods.
Morgan: safe enough.
Crowe never liked being a T.D., and wasn't very effective. Might regain the seat, but perhaps not: S.F.'s support for asylum seekers, opposition to any criticism of immigration or tolerance for debate around this area I think has cost them locally. Tallaght's population is not 20-25% foreigner and the other 75%-80% aren't too happy about that and possibly cost him in 2007.
Larry O'Toole (Dublin North East): a gent, but I'm sceptical as to whether he can pull it off. He only got half as many first preferences in the locals (ward boundary changes), difficult to gauge this one.
Dessie Ellis (Dublin North West): no.
Dublin Central: No, doesn't matter who runs here. I wonder will Burke run? McDonald won't take this seat, anyway.
Donegal: probably have a chance here, at least could capitalize on the dissent in F.F.
Cork North Central: O'Brien perhaps? Possibly squeeze by if F.F.'s support collapses. S.P. could leach support off him.
Gerry Murray (Mayo): it's hard to imagine F.G. making a clean sweep here, I'd say F.F. would have to hold on to at least one seat. Labour have absolutely no chance, this is a county in which latté liberals are few and far between. The only other individual with a remote chance of a seat would be Murray, though he would have to double his previous first preferences. Unlikely. Probably F.G. 4, F.F. 1??
Seán McManus (Sligo North Leitrim): Here. both F.F. T.D.s (Devins, Scanlon) either resigned the whip or were expelled. Just one F.G. McManus came 5th with 11.73%. He'd have to almost double his first preference share to make the quota. Difficult to say the outcome of this constituency: Two independent F.F. returned? Unlikely. Two F.G. probably, perhaps three? Could McManus benefit form F.F. dissent and sneak past the rival independents and the official F.F. organization? Like Murray, could be worth a punt (long shot).
Joe Reilly (Meath West): way off in 2007 (with just 11.29%; the quota was more like 20%), a victim of gerrymandering. Still, with 2 F.F. and 1 F.G., perhaps O'Reilly could benefit from F.F.'s decline in support? Again, his level of support would probably have to double. Not likely.
(Eoin Cullinane) Waterford: no chance.
Wexford: lost their candidate, split in local organization and disastrous local election results. A text book example of how to throw it all away. No chance.
Dublin Mid-West: S.F.'s revolving door strategy for candidates has been a disaster here. Another fertile ground foolishly wasted by the arrogance of Head Office. So, where is Joanne Spain now, eh?
No real chance anywhere else.
What do the current opinion polls indicate? Are there any constituency only opinion polls? Most political parties conduct opinion polls or surveys in marginal constituencies and tailor their policies to attract the swing vote. Are Sinn Fein doing this?
Reply With Quote