Ivan Yates: "Short-term gombeen politics could cost opposition the next election"

[MsAnneThrope]

Ivan Yates is a man I admire for many reasons and Irish politics is worse off without him in my opinion. He is affable, intelligent, totally honest and sincere I believe, and has great charisma (the x-factor so many people say is lacking in current party leaders). I believe he would have made a great Taoiseach but sadly he departed the political stage.

In yesterday's Irish Examiner however, I think he has written one of the most astute commentaries of the current political situation that I've seen in a long time. People can decide for themselves if he is dropping hints to his former party (and Labour & Sinn Féin) and is warning them that they can still screw things up, despite what recent opinion polls have shown. And in the process allow Fianna Fáil win the electorate over again. Some choice snippets:

However, if the public mood shifts from blame and anger towards confronting and resolving the nation’s problems, the opposition could be outmanoeuvred. Short-term populist policies could be perceived as naive and lacking credibility. This can only undermine the perception of economic managerial competence.

FG and Labour must realise that excessive opportunism now will not advance their electoral prospects. They need to show the utmost caution not to provide political hostages to fortune. If and when they are elected to government, their present posturing will be quoted back to them, as evidence of hypocrisy and inconsistency. The retrenchment in public expenditure over the next three years will be brutal, whoever is in power. Given that 71 cent in every euro of expenditure comprises public sector pay and social welfare payments, the axe will fall on these emotive areas. Opposition promises to do otherwise are unsustainable. It is short-term gombeen politics.

The opposition needs to be alert to the prevailing mood change within the cabinet. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan and his department are internally in the ascendant. Cowen’s case for consensus is a busted flush. Their poll ratings are so bad they have little further to lose.

This same mood shift occurred in 1989 when Haughey and MacSharry made a virtue out of fiscal necessity. Middle-class voters had moved to the PDs to demand sustainable public finances. History is now repeating itself. Voters, while inherently motivated by self-interest, are numerate. They understand we cannot continue with budget deficits of €25bn per year. While fearing tougher times for their families, they are braced for the painful realities. They know there is no escape. Opposition politicians, full of false promises, will ultimately be rejected as Greeks bearing gifts. It’s OK to be coy and somewhat evasive. Outright commitments on pay, child benefit and welfare retention can only undermine their authority and ultimately reduce their electability.

Full Article: Irish Examiner: November 19th, 2009: Short-term gombeen politics could cost opposition the next election

[Simbo67]

I'd tend to agree with him. I think FG should be putting clear blue water between themselves and Labour on these issues. Labour seems to still think we can have it both ways. Some of the recent thing FG have been doing are a little bit annoying. Of course, child benefit should be tackled for those who can afford it.

[QuizMaster]

When I heard Michael D Higgins and Joan Burton the other day it made me cringe.

She was like why should we reveal our hand ahead of the budget. It would be like Trappatoni revealing his strategy to the French.
The stupid cow. It's not a game, it's real life. This country is in desparate straits, we need every good idea we can get.

Then Higgins was on and he was all oh isn't it so tiresome! What's your cuts? Tell us your cuts and we'll tell you ours! Oh what a silly game to play!.
The twee little fecker, does he not know this is the real world, not the UCG debating society?

[Simbo67]

I dont agree with you QM, those boys have had over a year to make decisions and they haven't. Why should we help them out. If they want our policies, we should be in government. If they don't have their own policies, they should not be in government.

[FakeViking]

When I heard Michael D Higgins and Joan Burton the other day it made me cringe.

She was like why should we reveal our hand ahead of the budget. It would be like Trappatoni revealing his strategy to the French.
The stupid cow. It's not a game, it's real life. This country is in desparate straits, we need every good idea we can get.

Then Higgins was on and he was all oh isn't it so tiresome! What's your cuts? Tell us your cuts and we'll tell you ours! Oh what a silly game to play!.
The twee little fecker, does he not know this is the real world, not the UCG debating society?

I thought you were older than 10.

Listen to any Govt spokesman (like your buddy Bullsh1t Dan): "cuts are coming but we can't discuss them as they're part of the budgetary framework".

Yet you want the opposition (who don't have the entire Public Service and an army of highly paid advisers at their beck & call) to write the budget. Grow up.

[west'sawake]

While I am wary of hero worshipping any politician, and would baulk at calling Ivan Charismatic, (he's a bit too wordy for that), he sticks to the issues, never personalises things, and is admirably non partisan. Of course you are right, and kudos for the O.P.,Yates is spot on re the dangers for F.G and Labour, and Enda Kenny re child benefit is an example of the paryt being at sixes and sevens over presenting themselves as being capable of the tough decisions needed to celan up FF's mess. I wouldn't expect anything other than populism from FF lite (Labour), but I do expect intellectual consistency re the economy from a centre right party, being all things to all people is what got us into this mess in the first place, the buying off of every bloody interest group in the country through the unholy alliance of FF led Govts, Developers, Banks, the Unions, and the Farmers. ,

[Harmonica]

He speaks a lot of sense. I also sense in there that he is explaining why he left politics.

The opposition have made their current gains by playing the blame game. Eventually voters will move on from blame to solutions. Failure to provide solutions will re-elect FF.

[Simbo67]

I thought you were older than 10.

Listen to any Govt spokesman (like your buddy Bullsh1t Dan): "cuts are coming but we can't discuss them as they're part of the budgetary framework".

Yet you want the opposition (who don't have the entire Public Service and an army of highly paid advisers at their beck & call) to write the budget. Grow up.

+1

[QuizMaster]

I dont agree with you QM, those boys have had over a year to make decisions and they haven't. Why should we help them out. If they want our policies, we should be in government. If they don't have their own policies, they should not be in government.

Whose side do you think I'm on?

If you have any good ideas, spill the beans. We need it.
This adversarial system of government is rubbish.
What's more important?
(a) The state of the nation
(b) Gobshi-ite party politics?

[OceanFrog]

I thought you were older than 10.

Listen to any Govt spokesman (like your buddy Bullsh1t Dan): "cuts are coming but we can't discuss them as they're part of the budgetary framework".

Yet you want the opposition (who don't have the entire Public Service and an army of highly paid advisers at their beck & call) to write the budget. Grow up.

+ another 1

Well said.