Opinion poll suggests FG could win two seats in Louth

[alonso]

Fine Gael's electoral gamble in Co Louth could pay off this summer, according to an opinion poll in the local media today.

The Red C poll conducted for the Drogheda Independent suggests that the arrival of Mairead McGuinness as a new candidate has boosted the party's support to 32%, up from 20% at the last election.

This means she and running partner Fergus O'Dowd could both win seats for Fine Gael in the General Election.

Elsewhere, the poll suggests Fianna Fáil is set for its worst result in the Louth constituency since the foundation of the State.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/?jp=CWSNGBSNCWCW

[kerrynorth]

Does anyone have the poll details.

[White Horse]

Fine Gael's electoral gamble in Co Louth could pay off this summer, according to an opinion poll in the local media today.

The Red C poll conducted for the Drogheda Independent suggests that the arrival of Mairead McGuinness as a new candidate has boosted the party's support to 32%, up from 20% at the last election.

This means she and running partner Fergus O'Dowd could both win seats for Fine Gael in the General Election.

Elsewhere, the poll suggests Fianna Fáil is set for its worst result in the Louth constituency since the foundation of the State.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/?jp=CWSNGBSNCWCW

It is known in all political parties in Louth that this is a distinct possibility. O'Dowd and McGuinness have large personal support that is not dependant upon FG's national support.

My colleagues in FF in Louth are very worried about McGuinness taking Kirk's seat.

They are hoping that they might be able to squeeze Morgan out, as his performance has been awful.

However, it will be very tight.

[White Horse]

Does anyone have the poll details.

From today's Argus:

"Red C interviewed a constituency quote sample of 520 adults in 30 points across the county. Interviews were conducted face to face in people's homes between 20th and 28th January. The accuracy of the data is estimated to be +/- 4% at 95% confidence levels"

Dermot Ahern (FF) 26%
Arthur Morgan (PSF) 16%
Mairead McGuinness (FG) 14%
Fergus O'Dowd (FG) 13%
Seamus Kirk (FF) 9%
Ged Nash (Lab) 7%
Mark Dearey (Green) 6%
Jim D'Arcy (FG) 5%
Peter Short (WP) 2%
Frank Maher (FF) 1%

[rockofcashel]

The thing that is important for both to win seats, is the sharing of FPV's.

In a four seater, you need 20% for a quota. If you could split 32% in two, 16% each, they would have a very strong chance.

If it split 21% + 11%, you would have practically no chance.. especially if it was Mc Guinness got the 21%.

The problem for FG, is that I'd imagine Mc Guinness's vote is more personal in nature than party, and is much more difficult to control

[White Horse]

The thing that is important for both to win seats, is the sharing of FPV's.

Agreed.

On the basis of thh above poll details, Ahern and Morgan are definates. Unless FF can do something dramatic regarding vote management, it is difficult to see anything other than FG taking the other two seats.

[Aidan1]

I heard the discussion on the local radio station on the way to work

Ahern 26%
Morgan 16%
Mc Guinness 14%
O'Dowd 14%
Nash 7%
Deery 6%

Never gave the Kirk figure although it said that FF on 36% and FG on
32%. So Kirk and Maher have 10% between them.
Poll also indicated that McGuinness was picking up transfers all over the place and would take the 2nd seat with a battle between Morgan, O'Dowd and Kirk for the final 2 seats.

[HanleyS]

I just got Mairead McGuinness @ evens for €50 on PaddyPower.com.

They haven't updated their odds since this opinion poll. Seamus Kirk is still 1/3.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Because this is Red C I suppose I trust the results with one health-warning namely that a poll is only a snapshot and the war aint over yet. Don't count yer chickens Blueshirts....this is clearly the result of a McGuinness vote rather than indicative of a big swing to FG. :wink:

[meriwether]

Because this is Red C I suppose I trust the results with one health-warning namely that a poll is only a snapshot and the war aint over yet. Don't count yer chickens Blueshirts....this is clearly the result of a McGuinness vote rather than indicative of a big swing to FG. :wink:

If only Colm O Gorman could pull off a personal swing, eh? I bet you'd take it.