Prediction for the general election by constituency

[KeithM]

aka "What I did for the xmas holidays" by Keith M, 45 and three quarters.

Well the TV over the holidays was ************************e, so I did a consituency by constituncy prediction, and here's my best guess;

DUBLIN
2002 : 21 FF, 3FG, 9 Lab, 4 Greens, 2 SF, 3 others

As always the election will be won and lost in the capital. Various regional and constituency polls have been giving very mixed massages, but I actually don't see too man seats changing hands at the end of the day.

FF will struggle to hold their second seat in every Northside constituency, especially DC and DNC (down to a 3 seater), but the impact that a native Dub like Bertie makes with the electorate should not be underestimated. FG will be looking to regain lost seats south of the Liffey but I think that they'll come up short almost everywhere.

I see no change in party representation in DC, DNE (assuming Woods stands), DS, DSE and DSW.

Elsewhere I think Lab (Tuffy) will take the extra seat in DMW, others (Daly) to take the Lab seat in DN, others (McGrath) to lose out in DNC. I think SF will take the Lab (Shorthall) seeat in DNW and FG to seat the Lab seat in DW. I think FG will retake the PDS seat (O'Malley) in DL.

2007 : FF 21 (=), FG 5 (+2), Lab 7 (-2), PD 3(-1), Green 5 (=), SF 3 (+1), Others 3 (=)

MUNSTER

2002 : FF 25, FG 11, Lab 5, PD 1, Green 1, SF 1, Others 4
The province is a bedrock for both FF and FG and I don't see that changing in the forseeable future. With a Munsterman leading them in 2002 FG didn't make any progress here, and I don't see that changing. Cork will be pivotal for FF fortunes. Rabitte does not have the appeal of Spring or even Quinn here and all the Lab seats out Limerick and Cork city and in trouble.

I don't expect to seee changes in Clare, CNW, CSC, KN, LE, LW, TN, TS, or Waterford.

Where I do expect to seee change it's pretty predictable; FG to take the Lab seat in Cork East and FF to lose the seat being lost in CNC. The one place I expect to see major change is Kerry South. I think FF will take back JHR's seat anmd FG will take the Lab seat, but in both cases it will be knife edge stuff.

2007 : FF 25 (=), FG 13(+2), Lab 3 (-2) PD 1 (=), Green 1 (=), SF 1 (=), Others 3 (-1)

CONNACHT-ULSTER

2002 : FF 14, FG 7, Lab, 1, PD 1, SF 1, Others 5
If there is to be a boost for FG based on a "Kenny factor", then it's likely to be seen here. Recently this region has thrown up some unexpected independents, and it's too far out to see if that repeats. Of all the regions, I think that this may be the most volatile. I'm moving Roscommon to "Leinster" based on the new constituency line-up for ease of comparison.

The only constituency where I see no change in C-M, which is bad news for FF, would hope to take 3 seats based on having the outgoing CC. Elsewhere in DNE, I see the other (Blaney) losing out to SF due to the FG split. FG to lose out to SF in DSW. In Galways East I expect FG to re-take the Others seat. In Galways West, I think FF might finally gert that third seat, but at PD expense. In Mayo I think FG will get 3, but FG could hold their two (BCF losing out), while in SNL, I think it's 2FF to 1 FG in a very close race.

2007 : FF 15 (+1), FG 8 (+1), Lab 1 (=), PD 0(-1), SF 3 (+2), Others 1 (-4)

LEINSTER

2002 : FF 21, FG : 10, Lab 6, PD 2, SF 1, Others 2

Lots of changes here with the new midland configuration, the split in Meath and the extra seat in Kildare. The only constituency where I see no change is Louth, and if McGuinness does take a seat I think it will most like be her running mate losing out.

Elsewhere in CK, I see the Greens taking the Lab seat and others (Murphy) holding the bi-election gain, but FF re-taking the extra seat. In KS I think FG might just re-take the Lab seat and FG will consolidate the defection of Twomey and hold the seat. In Wicklow, I think that the Greens could take the others (fox) seat. In Meath I think it will be 2 FF 1 FG in both constituencies, although Lab will be close in the east. In Laois Offaly I see FG re-take the PD (Parlon) seat. Finally in the Roscommon-Longford, Westmeath re-shuffle I see another FG gain at the expense of the PDs (Sexton).

2007 : ff 22 (+1), FG 14 (+4), Lab 4 (-2), PD 0 (-2), Green 2 (+2), SF 1 (=), Others 1 (-1).

So that's a final projection of;
FF : 83 (+2)
FG : 40 (+9)
Lab : 15 (-6)
PD : 4 (-4)
Green : 8 (+2)
SF : 8 (+3)
Others : 8 (-6)

The others will not exactly be full of FFers by proxy and I woiuld see most of the supporting Ahern; exceptions could be Breen (Clare) and Connolly and I think that Ahern would ditch the PDs, but maybe make one of the CC.

[rockofcashel]

If you think that FF are going to increase seats on the last time out Keith.. give up all political predictions ..

[meriwether]

You like a punt Keith dont you?
Dya wanna have a punt on FF gaining? Id be interested in matching it, terms and conditions applying of course.

[KeithM]

If you think that FF are going to increase seats on the last time out Keith.. give up all political predictions ..

Almost exactly the same words someone said to me 5 years ago when I said that FG would be in the low 30s.

[hiding behind a poster]

You like a punt Keith dont you?
Dya wanna have a punt on FF gaining? Id be interested in matching it, terms and conditions applying of course.

Hear Hear. Those predictions are absolutely ridiculous. I'd bet the national debt on them being out by miles. To suggest that FF are heading for an overall majority despite them being down by anything up to 11% in polls since then, and despite FG being up by anything from 4% to 7%, and to furthermore suggest that Labour, up or level on 2002 in every poll since then, are gonna lose 6 seats, suggests that Keith only does poll predictions when wearing spectacles of a certain tint.

[KeithM]

You like a punt Keith dont you?
Dya wanna have a punt on FF gaining? Id be interested in matching it, terms and conditions applying of course.

Hear Hear. Those predictions are absolutely ridiculous. I'd bet the national debt on them being out by miles. To suggest that FF are heading for an overall majority despite them being down by anything up to 11% in polls since then, and despite FG being up by anything from 4% to 7%, and to furthermore suggest that Labour, up or level on 2002 in every poll since then, are gonna lose 6 seats, suggests that Keith only does poll predictions when wearing spectacles of a certain tint.

One again, if you want to quote polls, if might be an idea if you actually bothered to read them. FF have been with 3 or 4 points of their 2002 GE figure on almost every recent poll. Add to that the fact that most people have to see the benefit of the budget and the SSIAs, and I think that its not beyound the realms of possibility that their vote share may be up.

However I think that FF are more likely to be off by one or two points, but critically I think that the FFers by proxy are in a much weaker position this time out and that their votes will end up back in the FF pile.

As for Labour, two of the last five polls have them lower than their 2002 figure and (critically) there has been a a slow but steady downward trend in the past six months.

As I said, think before you post and read before you quote.

[meriwether]

I agree completely Keith. Take my money off me. I deserve to lose it.

[KeithM]

I agree completely Keith. Take my money off me. I deserve to lose it.

I prefer to take advantage of people that can afford it, like Paddy Power. Besides, a lot can happen in four months.

[meriwether]

I agree completely Keith. Take my money off me. I deserve to lose it.

I prefer to take advantage of people that can afford it, like Paddy Power. Besides, a lot can happen in four months.

Alternatively, dont give money to Powers, give it to me. I need it, Powers dont.

[FutureTaoiseach]

The PDs were stronger in Galway West last time than in Limerick East so I'm bemused that you are predicting them losing out there. I accept Sexton is prob a gonner but disagree on Parlon. I think it's too close to call between PD and FG in Laois-Offaly but with Parlon having the slight edge especially owing to profile. I also consider DL too close to call especially given the strong PD vote of around 10-11% in 2004 in what constitutes the DL constituency. Remember she got in on a 13% 1st pref in 2002. I agree though that Harney, McDowell and O'Donnell are rock solid. I'm sticking with my traditional prediction of 6-7.