Kerry North - West Limerick

[Kerrygold]

See Map Above in post above. A population of 13,000 people has been transferred from Limerick West to the new Kerry North/Limerick West Constituency. This will suit FF and FG candidates.

5,000 people have been transferred from Kerry North to Kerry South. The whole town of Castleisland is gone. This will damage Tralee based candidates where Labour and SF are strong.

The big winners in this boundary move are FF and FG. The boundary move will secure a least one seat for FF.

I call it 1 FF / 1 FG / last seat between LAB and SF.

Locals say that SF have better penetration than Labour in the Listowl / Tarbort West Limerick Area. Therefore, I think SF will take last seat.

Okish analysis. Except what you say re Castleisland. It won't affect Labour at all. They've no vote in Castleisland, well not in a long time anyway and the SF vote is marginal there. It will hit Mac and Deenihan, but Deenihan will more than make up for it in West Limerick. Not sure about Mac.

[kerrynorth]

Okish analysis. Except what you say re Castleisland. It won't affect Labour at all. They've no vote in Castleisland, well not in a long time anyway and the SF vote is marginal there. It will hit Mac and Deenihan, but Deenihan will more than make up for it in West Limerick. Not sure about Mac.

There was always a Spring vote in Castleisland Town and Martin did reasonably there and in Ballymac, part of which is also gone South. I would not rule out the FF seat as in the mix. I would only call it 1FG and 2 from FF/Lab/SF. The FF seat is not at all so certain, there vote is already low and if recent opinion polls transfer any bit locally then there seat is in the mix.

[Kerrygold]

There was always a Spring vote in Castleisland Town and Martin did reasonably there and in Ballymac, part of which is also gone South. I would not rule out the FF seat as in the mix. I would only call it 1FG and 2 from FF/Lab/SF. The FF seat is not at all so certain, there vote is already low and if recent opinion polls transfer any bit locally then there seat is in the mix.

The Lab vote in Castleisland all but vanished in 2004 and again in 2007 and was unlikely to return in any great numbers. SF are losing around 350 votes and Labour around 200, whereas FG are losing 700+ and FF 800+. The portion of Ballymac gone South is tiny, and won't have much of an impact on the overall picture. I agree with you about FF. They had a disastrous local election and if that trend continues I think they're in right trouble. Mac's sister lost 5-600 votes whereas T. Ferris and Spring's vote jumped up.

[Fear Rua]

Am really enjoying the posts here, some good knowledgable stuff, very interesting. I would have little or no information on a constituency such as this but I am interested to know if the FF vote actually fall nationally as is predicted in polls etc.

It is hard to believe that die hard supporters will desert in such large numbers. One poster suggests that FF might get no seat this area, surely FF have at least one seat in each and every constituency. I can understand people voting anti-FF in local and even European elections but when push comes to shove... surely not.

It is not as though the joint opposition are on the same hymn-sheet. Is it safe to assume that the GREENS are gone nationally,?? Sinn Féin made no significant progress last time nor in the local/european elections and I think that many Independents will struggle because of the danger of hung Dáil or these Indo's actually running the country a la Healy-Rae/Lowry et al.

[Kerrygold]

Am really enjoying the posts here, some good knowledgable stuff, very interesting. I would have little or no information on a constituency such as this but I am interested to know if the FF vote actually fall nationally as is predicted in polls etc.

It is hard to believe that die hard supporters will desert in such large numbers. One poster suggests that FF might get no seat this area, surely FF have at least one seat in each and every constituency. I can understand people voting anti-FF in local and even European elections but when push comes to shove... surely not.

It is not as though the joint opposition are on the same hymn-sheet. Is it safe to assume that the GREENS are gone nationally,?? Sinn Féin made no significant progress last time nor in the local/european elections and I think that many Independents will struggle because of the danger of hung Dáil or these Indo's actually running the country a la Healy-Rae/Lowry et al.

Sinn Féin made significant progress in Munster. Doubling their vote in the Euros and making inroads in the locals as well.

[locke]

It is hard to believe that die hard supporters will desert in such large numbers. One poster suggests that FF might get no seat this area, surely FF have at least one seat in each and every constituency. I can understand people voting anti-FF in local and even European elections but when push comes to shove... surely not.

Kerry North provided FF's worst result in the last GE and as it's a 3-seater, it doesn't provide much scope for slippage, particularly in a constituency where both Sinn Fein and Labour are relatively strong.

In the locals, FF's performance was down by 10% in Listowel and 13% in Tralee. A similar fall in a General Election would put their seat in considerable doubt.

[Fear Rua]

Sinn Féin made significant progress in Munster. Doubling their vote in the Euros and making inroads in the locals as well.

After the 2004 Local Elections Sinn Féin had 54 seats, after the 2009 elections they had 54 seats.

In the 2004 European Election Sinn Féin got 11% of the National vote and in the 2009 election they got 11.2%..... hardly significant progress in either case.......The General Election will be held on a National basis also.

[locke]

After the 2004 Local Elections Sinn Féin had 54 seats, after the 2009 elections they had 54 seats.

In the 2004 European Election Sinn Féin got 11% of the National vote and in the 2009 election they got 11.2%..... hardly significant progress in either case.......The General Election will be held on a National basis also.

Kerrygold's point was about Munster though.

What actually happened to Sinn Fein was a worse performance in Dublin balanced out by a better performance in some other parts of the country.

[Fear Rua]

Kerry North provided FF's worst result in the last GE and as it's a 3-seater, it doesn't provide much scope for slippage, particularly in a constituency where both Sinn Fein and Labour are relatively strong.

In the locals, FF's performance was down by 10% in Listowel and 13% in Tralee. A similar fall in a General Election would put their seat in considerable doubt.

In the 2007 GE FF's vote (McEllistrim/Foley)was over 31%, even in 2002 (McE/Kiely) they had over 30%.

Labour's vote in 2007 dropped to 10 and a half from over 22% (Spring) and in 2002 they did not win a seat with 22%

[locke]

In the 2007 GE FF's vote (McEllistrim/Foley)was over 31%, even in 2002 (McE/Kiely) they had over 30%.

Labour's vote in 2007 dropped to 10 and a half from over 22% (Spring) and in 2002 they did not win a seat with 22%

And Labour's current opinion poll ratings are double what they got in the last election.

For the record, from the last locals, the change in party support was

Listowel

FF -9.65%
FG -0.95%
Lab +6.75%
SF +7.35%

Tralee

FF -13.17%
FG +0.73%
Lab +10.15%
SF +6.81%

If that kind of vote movement was repreated in a General Election, Fianna Fail could find themselves in serious trouble.