Kerry North - West Limerick

[pjoz]

I really think it's wishful thinking on some peoples behalf regarding Ferris losing his seat.He'l poll 2nd highest 1st pref next time again,most likely with a greater margin of safety over the FF candiate with labour alot closer.As SF candiates go he has proven to be extremely transfer friendly,a fact re-endorsed by his daughters Euro campaign,and if he should decide to step aside to allow her run she'd be an absolute certainty.It'l be between FF and Labour for the final seat

[adamirer]

Where on earth did you get those figures? SF got well over 7,000 votes.

North Kerry doesn't always follow national trends.

Sorry, wrote something down wrong

Listowel: Lab 3292, SF 3528
Tralee: Lab 4840, SF 3613
(total) Lab 8132 SF 7141

still, a 1,000 vote difference.

[MacCoise]

AJ lacks a bit of gravitas perhaps, but he certainly has the Spring X factor.

does he have his millions.?

[Rosmuc]

It looks like Toiréasa Ferris is going to run alright. SF are already getting her face out by recycling her Euro election posters with a 'No to Lisbon' sticker around Abbeyfeale and the other parts of W. Limerick that will transfer to Kerry N.

Here's an idea for devilment: Maybe Adare could be transferred into the new Kerry North - West Limerick constituency too? I'd love to see a photo of Ms Ferris and her father canvassing for votes outside the post office there.

Or maybe a poster of Deenihan & Gen.Mulcahy at Ballyseedy cross saying were sorry for the slaughter.

[FloatingVoterTralee]

With Spring set to win the unanimous Labour nomination, the other candidates are likely to be:

FF: Tom McEllistrim
John Brassill (will hold up West Limerick vote)

FG: Jimmy Deenihan
Unknown West Limerick running mate

SF: Martin Ferris (probable last campaign)

Ind: David Gray (ex-Green)

Deenihan will top the poll and the conservative West Limerick voters will return Mac, with the Ferris/Spring race probably edged by the incumbent at present, though FG transfers could easily change this.

[liamfoley]

FG: Jimmy Deenihan
Unknown West Limerick running mate

Dan Neville is the sitting TD, no indication that he is ready to retire.

[kerrynorth]

With Spring set to win the unanimous Labour nomination, the other candidates are likely to be:

FF: Tom McEllistrim
John Brassill (will hold up West Limerick vote)

FG: Jimmy Deenihan
Unknown West Limerick running mate

SF: Martin Ferris (probable last campaign)

Ind: David Gray (ex-Green)

Deenihan will top the poll and the conservative West Limerick voters will return Mac, with the Ferris/Spring race probably edged by the incumbent at present, though FG transfers could easily change this.

The only thing I would disagree with there is that FG are more likely to go for a Tralee area second candidate leaving Jimmy to canvass West Limerick where he will be very strong.

PS I doubt if David Grey would run as an Indo. Plus the public service unions are threatening to put forward a canddiate which will hit Labour as I'd imagine a large number of them will only vote No.1 for their candidate and not transfer to make a point.

[Kerrygold]

The only thing I would disagree with there is that FG are more likely to go for a Tralee area second candidate leaving Jimmy to canvass West Limerick where he will be very strong.

PS I doubt if David Grey would run as an Indo. Plus the public service unions are threatening to put forward a canddiate which will hit Labour as I'd imagine a large number of them will only vote No.1 for their candidate and not transfer to make a point.

You honestly believe Deenihan would allow that? No chance. Plus, they don't have anyone with the kind of vote getting power in the Tralee area for that to make sense. They'll run a second candidate in the W. Limerick area which will put FF under pressure.

And I can't see the unions running a candidate, no matter how many times they threaten it.

[Kerrygold]

With Spring set to win the unanimous Labour nomination, the other candidates are likely to be:

FF: Tom McEllistrim
John Brassill (will hold up West Limerick vote)

FG: Jimmy Deenihan
Unknown West Limerick running mate

SF: Martin Ferris (probable last campaign)

Ind: David Gray (ex-Green)

Deenihan will top the poll and the conservative West Limerick voters will return Mac, with the Ferris/Spring race probably edged by the incumbent at present, though FG transfers could easily change this.

Why do you believe Brassil will hold up the West Limerick vote? His from Ballyheigue, and is probably the furthest candidate from the area.

[Tomas Mor]

The fact that Martin Ferris is moving away from the sea will cost him votes in the farming rural inland area of Limerick. Maritime experience has stood him in good stead up to now.